CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's really an odd setup. Trough over us right now beat down the ridge enough to turn Irene north enough to avoid being a Caribbean Cruiser. Ridge builds back in and shifts Irene a bit westward... skirting Hispaniola and keeping a relatively "low" latitude. Next trough comes in... bulldozes through the ridge enough to create a weakness and spare Florida. The trough is progressive enough to essentially miss Irene and let the ridge build back in and let Irene threaten somewhere in the SE from JAX to HSE. It may not be until the 3rd trough gets resolved that we realize what (if any) impacts we'll have here in SNE. It certainly isn't (right now) looking like a classic setup but the sample size for SNE hurricanes is small so there are certainly exceptions to the rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A bunch of Met sites have model "trends" on them, do not know what it means but when a model starts pushing East early, rarely do the runs reverse late. I would have to agree and I was taught in school that models do trend & to use them. Then again, the models we used are long gone - the NGM & the LFM. I don't think this behavior is useful at this range though and I would agree that it's most likely initialization that keys the trend at this range. However, closer in a model will trend one way of another to hone in on the "correct" or accurate solution. Watching that "trend" can glean what the eventual track would be, imho. I have a run-to-run comparison on my personal site that is helpful in that regard and I've used it many times with sucess. Then again, I don't have to earn a living from forecasting! The over all "trend" has been a push east in the past 48 hours and I think that is reflective of the lack of supporting features as some of the pros have pointed out as needed for a track favorable to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro through 120 is about identical to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro says game on my fellow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro through 120 is about identical to 00z We like model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro through 120 is about identical to 00z Awesome.. its great to see a stop in the trend from the euro Anybody have total rainfall when this run is complete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like landfall by 132 on NC/SC border. A bit west from 00z. But this thing is crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like a big rain event this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 What is the mechanism that is slowing this thing down right now on the Euro? Weakness between the exiting trough and building ridge? I don't have access to the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It seems unlikely it would move/crawl that slowly...You have to figure that 2nd trough would be enough to pick it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What is the mechanism that is slowing this thing down right now on the Euro? Weakness between the exiting trough and building ridge? I don't have access to the maps. It's really the lack of a mechanism. The troughs dig enough to weaken the ridge and create a weakness to bring the storm north but they are nowhere close to picking Irene up and shooting her NE. This solution would be catastrophic for the Carolinas in terms of flooding and wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 My only two cents would be that it seems a bit petty to compare this to a SNE landfall anomaly with the sample size as small as it is. Skepticism is warranted, but with the few opportunities the region has certainly worthy of the interest it's receiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like landfall by 132 on NC/SC border. A bit west from 00z. But this thing is crawling. Is slowing down good or bad in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It seems unlikely it would move/crawl that slowly...You have to figure that 2nd trough would be enough to pick it up Most of the models are actually showing something like this. The first trough drew the storm north today. The second does it to avoid MIA. And then the third is just a jumbled mess of shortwaves well west. What's interesting is what's happening over the west Atlantic... the ridge keeps building up essentially blocking the exit. It's a funky pattern for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's really the lack of a mechanism. The troughs dig enough to weaken the ridge and create a weakness to bring the storm north but they are nowhere close to picking Irene up and shooting her NE. This solution would be catastrophic for the Carolinas in terms of flooding and wind potential. Tkx. I would have to imagine at this point, the thing would eventually shoot E with the building ridge N of it. Looking at the 144h maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 My only two cents would be that it seems a bit petty to compare this to a SNE landfall anomaly with the sample size as small as it is. Skepticism is warranted, but with the few opportunities the region has certainly worthy of the interest it's receiving. Yeah I posted something similar to this an hour or two ago. The sample size for SNE storms is small so there are going to be outliers (look at Esther, for example). Whether we can actually get an Edouard type system to crawl up the coast and bring a hurricane to most of SNE is unclear. Belle almost did it... but was never really strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Is it plausible that the storm can possibly move this slow north of 30 deg N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Inside runner... Syracuse gets crushed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Most of the models are actually showing something like this. The first trough drew the storm north today. The second does it to avoid MIA. And then the third is just a jumbled mess of shortwaves well west. What's interesting is what's happening over the west Atlantic... the ridge keeps building up essentially blocking the exit. It's a funky pattern for sure. Yeah it's a convoluted mess..Just another solution from the Euro..but more importantly.still showing a US landfall..and keeping us in the mix. This will provide us some fun times the next 4-5 days until we can get a better idea where it's gonna end up. I just have a hard time believing it moves that slowly . Once they get that far north they tend to feel the westerlies at least to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Inside runner... Syracuse gets crushed lol. GFS East and EURO west.. could we be in a better spot right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Agree with Kev. It's not going to move that slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Inside runner... Syracuse gets crushed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Agree with Kev. It's not going to move that slow. Well what's there to accelerate it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well what's there to accelerate it? If anything I think we have to like the Euro going west..because they ultimately translate east the final few runs before the storm...plus if it went west..we'd still have some decent southeast winds I could care less about rain. I want wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah I posted something similar to this an hour or two ago. The sample size for SNE storms is small so there are going to be outliers (look at Esther, for example). Whether we can actually get an Edouard type system to crawl up the coast and bring a hurricane to most of SNE is unclear. Belle almost did it... but was never really strong enough. Yeah at the end of the day it's just exciting to see the first (potential) major hurricane threat to east coast since Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If anything I think we have to like the Euro going west..because they ultimately translate east the final few runs before the storm...plus if it went west..we'd still have some decent southeast winds I could care less about rain. I want wind Euro verbatim is nothing special for us. I think if you want winds you want this thing to rocket north with some kind of mega-phase to our southwest. If it's crawling ashore in the Carolinas it's going to weaken very fast and there's not really much baroclinic enhancement (like a Hazel) as the thing moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here's JB's track BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 gfs ensembles look sweet but we all know they will change!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_ensmodel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well what's there to accelerate it? True, but we're still 5+ days out. All it needs is a nudge, deeper trough, somehting to latch onto. Probability of this storm moving that slow in 5 days is slim. we'll see. It'll certainly be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here's JB's track BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there STFU did he really post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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