snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Anybody have a map of the SSTs off of Delmarva and around SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL its the gfs.. it's 7 days out.. relax.. if it went from GA to cape in a day it can go from cape to Gulf in 2 days O i know. Just pointing out the trend in the models. As one of my colleagues pointed out the high in the North Atlantic is there on the gfs.....just missing the GL trough. This run is fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The "PRE" starts Saturday lol Andy is very excited. There was already a "pre" in alb this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah I hear ya. We'll see how it goes...upper levels clearly not settled yet. This is why it was funny to see people claiming a FL hit was nearly a sure bet. i just worry that once these things go east they often dont come back. you got a bit more wiggle room for now. could go west too i suppose. it is funny to watch the "certaintly it wont do that" stuff only to have to changed 12 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 There are alot of reasons to believe this won't miss the United States, alot more than those supporting a fish. The fact that it doesn't start recurving until 77W makes the probability of a miss go down by a large margin. Also, the weakness is setup in a way that only a NNE recurve is possible unless massive changes occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 There are alot of reasons to believe this won't miss the United States, alot more than those supporting a fish. The fact that it doesn't start recurving until 77W makes the probability of a miss go down by a large margin. Also, the weakness is setup in a way that only a NNE recurve is possible unless massive changes occur. The problem I see is we want a deep midwest trough to prevent the natural eastward movement of this storm as it gains latitude and gets caught up in the easterlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The problem I see is we want a deep midwest trough to prevent the natural eastward movement of this storm as it gains latitude and gets caught up in the easterlies. Probably not likely in August. The NNE track does allow it to the spend the most time overwater. Alot of people could make the mistake of remembering Hurricane Earl which had an unfavorable upper-level pattern for strengthening after it reached 30N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 models don't really trend per say...this has just as much of a chance of going west next run as it does going east. Of course, that does mean the OTS solution is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I was on my boat in Nantucket Harbor with 100mph gusts on my Davis. All from the NE. I wouldn't say it snuck up on us either. It was pretty well progged to do what it did. Perhaps a bit stronger than forecast. I was down in Newport and didn't bother to head out to the cape b/c the track shifted east. But a buddy caught this footage in Hyanis: He thought the winds were bigger than forecast b/c the storm was in transition to a cold center storm. I was under the impression the winds were out of the south as it passed by rapidly, but you are probably right. I really wasn't there to experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 models don't really trend per say...this has just as much of a chance of going west next run as it does going east. Of course, that does mean the OTS solution is in play. I hope people understand this. Some do have biases that come into play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah I don't really see the fuss right now until we see a solid trough digging west of us in the Great Lakes. Without that it's going to be really tough (though not impossible) to get something up here. Probably because it's a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Probably because it's a weather board. Another award winning post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Andy is very excited. There was already a "pre" in alb this morning What is a "pre"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Probably because it's a weather board. Another award winning post. The 2 of you have become extremely annoying. Please stop the petty ribs at each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 What is a "pre"? PRE "Predecessor Rain Event" http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1?journalCode=mwre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What is a "pre"? Keep it pg-13 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 PRE "Predecessor Rain Event" http://journals.amet...ournalCode=mwre thanks. I will read up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 2 of you have become extremely annoying. Please stop the petty ribs at each other. Some positives, PNA rising fast, NAO in transition to positive. Every hurricane that ever hit did not have huge MW trough, Lots of time but this fun, something to fuss about besides faux severe threads, torch, swamp ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 models don't really trend per say...this has just as much of a chance of going west next run as it does going east. Of course, that does mean the OTS solution is in play. Yeah, I don't know. I've read the couple of papers on the value of evaluating dprog/dt, which generally dismiss it also. But the initialization process would suggest that models should exhibit some degree of trending for at least a certain number of runs, since the initial conditions are based in part on the short term forecast from the previous run. So yeah, trending wouldn't continue forever ... at some point it reaches an equilibrium, or observations contradict the previous trends short term forecast and start to shift in the other direction. I could be completely out in left field on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Some positives, PNA rising fast, NAO in transition to positive. Every hurricane that ever hit did not have huge MW trough, Lots of time but this fun, something to fuss about besides faux severe threads, torch, swamp ass. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin holding down the gung ho fort as always. 10" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah, I don't know. I've read the couple of papers on the value of evaluating dprog/dt, which generally dismiss it also. But the initialization process would suggest that models should exhibit some degree of trending for at least a certain number of runs, since the initial conditions are based in part on the short term forecast from the previous run. So yeah, trending wouldn't continue forever ... at some point it reaches an equilibrium, or observations contradict the previous trends short term forecast and start to shift in the other direction. I could be completely out in left field on this one A bunch of Met sites have model "trends" on them, do not know what it means but when a model starts pushing East early, rarely do the runs reverse late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 12Z GGEM is a glancing blow. Looks E of the 12z GFS in fact, but continuity from the 00z run leaves me skeptical right now of it's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro is king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like the King is strong and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah, I don't know. I've read the couple of papers on the value of evaluating dprog/dt, which generally dismiss it also. But the initialization process would suggest that models should exhibit some degree of trending for at least a certain number of runs, since the initial conditions are based in part on the short term forecast from the previous run. So yeah, trending wouldn't continue forever ... at some point it reaches an equilibrium, or observations contradict the previous trends short term forecast and start to shift in the other direction. I could be completely out in left field on this one I tend to agree. Just based on experience, when we see a model nudge east (or west) the next run tends to follow a trend. Maybe it's just me, but if I were to bet, I'd wager the next GFS nudges a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like the King is strong and east Thru 66/72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Thru 66/72 hrs The Bahamas get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can someone tell me what the policy is regarding posting images of the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can someone tell me what the policy is regarding posting images of the ECMWF? Anything from pay sites is off limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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