Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I"m surprised you're not more psyched about this high impact hit If we're sitting here Friday and this is still pegged as a RI landfall I'll be pretty stoaked...but it's just so far out right now. In 24 hrs it's gone from Miami, to charleston, to hatteras/new England. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 We got the good juju thread going now!! Let's bring a hurricane to New England! Juju flowin' If we're sitting here Friday and this is still pegged as a RI landfall I'll be pretty stoaked...but it's just so far out right now. In 24 hrs it's gone from Miami, to charleston, to hatteras/new England. Lol Yup. I only started this thread since the "threat" is there. Little we can do except monitor model trends and intensities. That being said, the 00z Euro and 06z GFS are pretty solid looking tracks at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well after reading the posts I am pumped...probably setting myself up for disappointment... A lot of sarcasm so far, and with 7 days before it's up here that's the way to be. It is cool to see this storm possibly in our area with a high impact but way too wide a spread still to get yourself excited. I saw people scoff when Birv pointed out that this could fish in the main thread because none of the ensemble members showed it. Fish is looking distinctly possible based on the way this thing has trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 A lot of sarcasm so far, and with 7 days before it's up here that's the way to be. It is cool to see this storm possibly in our area with a high impact but way too wide a spread still to get yourself excited. I saw people scoff when Birv pointed out that this could fish in the main thread because none of the ensemble members showed it. Fish is looking distinctly possible based on the way this thing has trended. Definitely not out of the realm of solutions for here, but I think he was referring to further down the coast towards FL/GA/SC/NC. It is far less likely that it's a fish storm for someone down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Shreddarola. Miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Shreddarola. Miss? I'm getting the super zoomed in TWDR...where on wunderground are you getting that wide view image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm getting the super zoomed in TWDR...where on wunderground are you getting that wide view image? http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=SJU&type=TZL&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://classic.wunde...f=9999&smooth=0 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin won't need Pete to clear out his oaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Those probs are surprisingly high..wouldn't think that would be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I see the 00z Euro and 06z GFS and I don't really think this is a particularly favorable SNE hurricane setup. We will need to see the second trough/shortwave dig much further south. Of all the storms it seems Bob is somewhat similar in synoptic setup but this isn't a real classic setup right now. It will be interesting to watch things evolve over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Those probs are surprisingly high..wouldn't think that would be the case You're misreading the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 even though the Euro does hit New England ferociously...the modeled anomalies on the ECMWF don't seem to be great for a landfalling SNE hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I see the 00z Euro and 06z GFS and I don't really think this is a particularly favorable SNE hurricane setup. We will need to see the second trough/shortwave dig much further south. Of all the storms it seems Bob is somewhat similar in synoptic setup but this isn't a real classic setup right now. It will be interesting to watch things evolve over the next couple days. Sometimes the most favorable conditions never perform..like in 2009..but setups that don't look ideal deliver the goods...it's already gotten much more favorable than it it looked late last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I see the 00z Euro and 06z GFS and I don't really think this is a particularly favorable SNE hurricane setup. We will need to see the second trough/shortwave dig much further south. Of all the storms it seems Bob is somewhat similar in synoptic setup but this isn't a real classic setup right now. It will be interesting to watch things evolve over the next couple days. lol...i guess we were thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sometimes the most favorable conditions never perform..like in 2009..but setups that don't look ideal deliver the goods...it's already gotten much more favorable than it it looked late last week I do agree with that.... we've gone from 3% to 6% or so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin, look at where the hurricane is now...that is the probability of it hitting SNE....ie ~10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 lol...i guess we were thinking the same thing. Given the GFS/Euro it seems the kind of synoptic pattern there showing means a Carolina hit then moving northeast as the trough is not deep/sharp enough to rocket the storm north into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Given the GFS/Euro it seems the kind of synoptic pattern there showing means a Carolina hit then moving northeast as the trough is not deep/sharp enough to rocket the storm north into SNE. right...I think the reason the GFS and the ECMWF hit New England is because the storm is so tucked in. It can move NNE and still hit SNE. If it's in a more classic position near or just outside HSE...it would miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 right...I think the reason the GFS and the ECMWF hit New England is because the storm is so tucked in. It can move NNE and still hit SNE. If it's in a more classic position near or just outside HSE...it would miss. I'm in the same boat here. I think if we see this thing make LF somewhere in SC, I think we'll see some sort of remnants hi the area. I'm not seeing a hard recurvature at this point, but most definitely not a classic NE hit with the deep midwest trough to rocket this thing due N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 right...I think the reason the GFS and the ECMWF hit New England is because the storm is so tucked in. It can move NNE and still hit SNE. If it's in a more classic position near or just outside HSE...it would miss. Yeah agreed. It's also moving fairly slowly. If we wind up seeing a deeper/sharper trough diving south from Canada then we have more to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 this is from Earl last year. In some respect, the pattern was actually more favorable for landfall than the one being depicted by the ECMWF. However, the hurricane was already 85 miles east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean sort of has a Gloria-esque track with totally different synoptics. Much slower, weaker trough, less and later trough interaction. The problem with Earl is the ULL did not dig enough over the Great Lakes and kept the storm moving NNE as opposed to feeling a more westward tug at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have seen this play before, all eyes on the trough entering the west, lets see how strong it is, also ridging off the se coast. Two scenarios will play out, stronger ridge landfall around Charleston with a late recurve, little wind and rain, or Irene sleeps with the fishes and the outer cape gets some rain and a gust to 58. Alignment not conducive to sne landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have seen this play before, all eyes on the trough entering the west, lets see how strong it is, also ridging off the se coast. Two scenarios will play out, stronger ridge landfall around Charleston with a late recurve, little wind and rain, or Irene sleeps with the fishes and the outer cape gets some rain and a gust to 58. Alignment not conducive to sne landfall. thx...I guess I'll just close off the computer for the next 7 days since you have all the answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Emails already going out down south, Mom in Pawleys just got a notice from Heritage CC where they live regarding possible evacuations/reentry information and protocal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 thx...I guess I'll just close off the computer for the next 7 days since you have all the answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 thx...I guess I'll just close off the computer for the next 7 days since you have all the answers. My pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Although the angle of attack is different than Hugo, and HP will be positioned more east instead of ne of the storm, this is the closest set up I can remember to threaten the lowcountry since 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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