ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not that its a huge deal, but GFS ensemble mean looks similar to 12z with a track over the Cape. We'll have to keep an eye on the western Atlantic ridge because that is what keeps this from hooking east further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How far E? Lol 18z gfs and everyone's giving.up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In Gloria we had no power for about 2 weeks. Barely rained at all, just huge wind gusts. A solid 80-100mph gust storm would do a tremendous amount of damage down this way especially as we've had a lot of rain and the ground is not drought hard anyway. A track over eastern Long Island will be pretty devastating for most of SE New England/Eastern New England if it maintains Cat 1 to 2 intensity. I've been through it once with Gloria and don't care to see it again but I suppose it's about that time. It's coming but west of that..likely over or just east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol 18z gfs and everyone's giving.up lol Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dude, have you ever seen 95 mph wind gusts..... Jesus, you don't want any higher than that. I experience Andrew.. you are right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow at CAntore..who doesn't typically hype JimCantore Jim Cantore Anyone w/ plans from the #OBX 2 New England needs 2 review evacuation plans & prepare 4a storm like we haven't seen in at least a generation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How far E? CC-BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow at CAntore..who doesn't typically hype JimCantore Jim Cantore Anyone w/ plans from the #OBX 2 New England needs 2 review evacuation plans & prepare 4a storm like we haven't seen in at least a generation Has TWC been hyping this on air in this fashion? And Cantore is usually pretty level headed until in the belly of the beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How much influence does a 13,000 ' mountain range (or whatever it is) have on a tropical system? seems like that coudl be the source of the dry air? Look at the latest water vapor and it looks like the dry air is no longer a major player. I'm still thinking the limiting development factor is wind shear and anti-cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 CC-BM. Too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not to sound like a pansy or anything, but I'm kind of worried about this storm, HVN seems to be a likely landfall spot...I'm hoping this storm either turns away or significantly weakens. Before you all go on rooting for a direct hit, think about how many lives maybe significantly effected or even destroyed by something like this. You have common sense...you are not being a wuss... I also hope few people are negatively affected. No one needs this. The science/met parts are neat, the rest I could do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Too far east Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This thing is about to bomb out..Pressure down 7mb..I'd bet we have close to a cat 3 by 5:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 CC-BM. That would be devastating emotionally. hop in the bathtub full of melting water and ice full of preperations, with the laptop in hand with microwave on standby incase that doesn't do it. Seriously, there has to be something up with the speed of the system. And why does the storm just go straight north? Does that continue? or are the models just not sophisticated enough to pick up on a subtle issue such as weakened NW ATL high, or even the incoming troughs at this time range and they will sniff it out in the next few cycles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This thing is about to bomb out..Pressure down 7mb..I'd bet we have close to a cat 3 by 5:00am I don't mean to sound dumb... does much strengthening happen overnight? ...ok... I sounded dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well, I didn't want to seem like a wet blanket. I have never been worried for a hurricane so much, ever, not Earl, Floyd and all the rest, to young to remember Bob and was not even born yet when Gloria hit. I guess we will just see what happens. Good luck to everyone. I understand what you are saying, but I want this thing to crush us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 not sure if posted. http://blip.tv/matt-noyes/hurricane-irene-technical-forecast-discussion-august-23-2011-5492088 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The main threads are so people friendly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I don't mean to sound dumb... does much strengthening happen overnight? ...ok... I sounded dumb Oh yeah...very often they strengthen at night..Time of day does not matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol 18z gfs and everyone's giving.up lol I never really "bought in". It's interesting but no reason to be vested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I started a new discussion since we hit 1000 posts here. good juju, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I don't mean to sound dumb... does much strengthening happen overnight? ...ok... I sounded dumb There's a diurnal cycle of convection in the tropics, so you often see cyclone "pulse" up at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The main threads are so people friendly... Tip got backhanded by am19psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some of the mods in those cane threads are being complete d-bags and have no business being mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There's a diurnal cycle of convection in the tropics, so you often see cyclone "pulse" up at night. Thanks (and to Blizzy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some of the mods in those cane threads are being complete d-bags and have no business being mods I'd never try to post in that clusterfook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some of the mods in those cane threads are being complete d-bags and have no business being mods I don't understand why they can't behave like ladies and gentlemen. Anyway... TV should be fun tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'd never try to post in that clusterfook. I wouldn't either. The mods delete everything anyone posts or yell at people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's coming but west of that..likely over or just east of NYC That wouldn't be bad here I don't think..some rain some strong winds but nothing worse than 1/05. Bad for you guys, Mattfm westward. I have a hard time buying the NYC track just based on how it's gradually been slipping east but part of that is the n/s adjustment as models figured out it wasn't going over the islands but coming north....be interesting to see in the next 15 or so hours if the models stabilize on the trend east or continue it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I wouldn't either. The mods delete everything anyone posts or yell at people. It seems if you are not in the Club, you get trashed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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