Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Fine by me.....let the s coast get decimated and I'll take some 70 mph gusts, along with 5" of rain. In Gloria we had no power for about 2 weeks. Barely rained at all, just huge wind gusts. A solid 80-100mph gust storm would do a tremendous amount of damage down this way especially as we've had a lot of rain and the ground is not drought hard anyway. A track over eastern Long Island will be pretty devastating for most of SE New England/Eastern New England if it maintains Cat 1 to 2 intensity. I've been through it once with Gloria and don't care to see it again but I suppose it's about that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In Gloria we had no power for about 2 weeks. Barely rained at all, just huge wind gusts. A solid 80-100mph gust storm would do a tremendous amount of damage down this way especially as we've had a lot of rain and the ground is not drought hard anyway. A track over eastern Long Island will be pretty devastating for most of SE New England/Eastern New England if it maintains Cat 1 to 2 intensity. I've been through it once with Gloria and don't care to see it again but I suppose it's about that time. I keep telling folks that it could be that long and they just don't believe me. Not imby, but some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Starting to doubt this ever makes cat 4 status now, too.......all we had been hearing about was how PERFECT the envt. was going to be and now the latest DISCO has started backing off that, somewhat. Maybe like a 125mph peak....as the forecast suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this hits near HVN or the CT/RI border, I'm going to roadtrip down to MMK...really rooting for the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Even if the storm is not barreling in at 40 knots, coastal flooding could definitely be a concern for anyone east of the track. We have a new moon on August 29th so the tides will already be higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I keep telling folks that it could be that long and they just don't believe me. Not imby, but some folks. Yup. I was just talking with my wife who had an uncle and aunt in Marion, MA who lost power for 2 weeks. She thought in Bob, but maybe Gloria. I was in h.s. for Gloria and we had numerous trees down in Foxboro. Yellowjackets swarming everywhere, pine in the air. Very cool storm for a teenager...bad for property owners. I'm worried about my mom. She is not really able to do much, so I will probably have to help her out. I can literally throw a baseball into the Bay from her front deck. 10' ASL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Even if the storm is not barreling in at 40 knots, coastal flooding could definitely be a concern for anyone east of the track. We have a new moon on August 29th so the tides will already be higher than normal. It's also a large circulation, so surge potential will wind down more slowly than the winds will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Don't tag me but I wonder if the slow motion will increase wind threat on the front and even left side more than usual up here. obviously a fast moving system would decrease wind speeds to the left, but slow moving over colder seas and land "friction" would also slow down the overall wind field as well (although it shoudl naturally expand in size, no?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this hits near HVN or the CT/RI border, I'm going to roadtrip down to MMK...really rooting for the GFS track. Try Beavertail Light in RI... they probably won't allow anyone near there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's also a large circulation, so surge potential will wind down more slowly than the winds will. The slower movement would also make it more likely it encounters a high tide...so there's some things that could offset the weakening of the system and the lack of forward speed that we'll have to keep an eye on if we are still looking at a potential landfall left of Narragansett/Buzzards Bays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Without a lot of forward speed, inland areas will definitely be harder pressed to see big winds. Of course we know that the flip side of reduced forwards speed on lowering wind potentianl is increased threat of extended period of heavy rain and resultant flooding. Pick your poison or more properly worded pick your dosage of the various poisons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yup. I was just talking with my wife who had an uncle and aunt in Marion, MA who lost power for 2 weeks. She thought in Bob, but maybe Gloria. I was in h.s. for Gloria and we had numerous trees down in Foxboro. Yellowjackets swarming everywhere, pine in the air. Very cool storm for a teenager...bad for property owners. I'm worried about my mom. She is not really able to do much, so I will probably have to help her out. I can literally throw a baseball into the Bay from her front deck. 10' ASL Ray can't multi-quote but yep you are right. Especiall as it has been 25 years since a good one hit the interior areas. Maybe all the heavy snow events have taken out some of the weaker trees but then again most of the trees that were hit the hardest this winter were non-leafers. Dave marion may have been Bob? Gloria hit Easton really hard. Surprisingly so because it didn't really rain and I only remember a few really strong gusts and thinking "this wasn't that bad"...then we couldn't go 500 yards in either direction for days. Roads like Summer Street, Bay Road, Rockland...had trees across them every 100 feet for miles. This is a nasty track on the GFS/others. But 4 days away, plus or minus 200 miles per NHC. Long time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 in regards to intensity forecast, SHIPS maybe picking up on the issue Irene is having with dry air... the first pic is the 1900UTC screen grab from a pwat animation...the black dashed arrow indicating drier air circulating into Irene.. the 2nd pic is from the Infrared RGB loop from the NWS site: Irene still spewing arc clouds, and i have placed a yellow circle (in the center) where perhaps the untrained eyes on this board may have mistakenly thought Irene was trying to form an eye, in reality it was just the effects of dry air circulating to the center of Irene and choking off convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Starting to doubt this ever makes cat 4 status now, too.......all we had been hearing about was how PERFECT the envt. was going to be and now the latest DISCO has started backing off that, somewhat. Maybe like a 125mph peak....as the forecast suggests. In my untrained eye, shear will kill a tropical system better than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Don't tag me but I wonder if the slow motion will increase wind threat on the front and even left side more than usual up here. it should...not only that...it could be distinctly tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene has been battling dry air since the beginning...inhibiting RI...which people so desperately want...and if you look at the PWAT animation, Irene is heading into the Bahamas, into an area of drier air...i would not discount SHIPS, at all...the warm sst's are certainly helping Irene maintain...but i don't think they will negate the effects of dry air/shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene has been battling dry air since the beginning...inhibiting RI...which people so desperately want...and if you look at the PWAT animation, Irene is heading into the Bahamas, into an area of drier air...i would not discount SHIPS, at all...the warm sst's are certainly helping Irene maintain...but i don't think they will negate the effects of dry air/shear... do you ever talk about anything else? You've been like rainstorm with this storm from square one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Even if the storm is not barreling in at 40 knots, coastal flooding could definitely be a concern for anyone east of the track. We have a new moon on August 29th so the tides will already be higher than normal. As progged on the GFS... Long Island Sound will be extremely succeptible to serious flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 dude, don't start...cause i haven't been posting over here...why are you a douche? get your ego in check... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As progged on the GFS... Long Island Sound will be extremely succeptible to serious flooding. One of the worst case scenarios for LIS is a slow moving cyclone on astro tides. Even a GON/WST track will cause big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As progged on the GFS... Long Island Sound will be extremely succeptible to serious flooding. The slower movement could definitely make them more susceptible than normal fast moving 'canes...longer period of E winds. I wonder how much models will speed this up as we get closer...I'm sure it will speed up at least a little...but perhaps more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The slower movement could definitely make them more susceptible than normal fast moving 'canes...longer period of E winds. I wonder how much models will speed this up as we get closer...I'm sure it will speed up at least a little...but perhaps more than that. I agree....prob trend faster and e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The slower movement could definitely make them more susceptible than normal fast moving 'canes...longer period of E winds. I wonder how much models will speed this up as we get closer...I'm sure it will speed up at least a little...but perhaps more than that. Yeah I agree could be faster. Storm surge modeling for LIS shows slow track can be one of the bigger drivers of surge. Track... even to the east... can cause problems due to piling. One of the more unique areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahero Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 dude, don't start...cause i haven't been posting over here...why are you a douche? get your ego in check... oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 dude, don't start...cause i haven't been posting over here...why are you a douche? get your ego in check... take it easy Diane I'm half-joking around..just something I've noticed...you've been on the dry air train for three days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Recon found a pressure of 969 mb storm starting to strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I agree....prob trend faster and e. Yeah, I'm having a hard time believing 2pm sunday she's over Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lots of edgy people on the board today...lol (and not in this subforum...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I agree....prob trend faster and e. How far E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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