MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 benchmark would suck... well unless you like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A track over the benchmark...would that mean a nor'easter type storm for SNE..or with a possible cat 1 storm could it be more significant around here?? A BM track would be pretty low impact...a lot of rain, esp for eastern areas, and just some run of the mill gusty winds with perhaps some solid TS force winds down on the Cape/ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A BM track would be pretty low impact...a lot of rain, esp for eastern areas, and just some run of the mill gusty winds with perhaps some solid TS force winds down on the Cape/ACK. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 sne weenie motto..."hope for the worst, prepare for the best". Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 benchmark would suck... well unless you like rain. thank you/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The trend has actually been converging over SNE...the eastern models over the BM yesterday like the GGEM/Ukie are coming west and the western outliers like Euro and to a lesser extent, the GFS, have come east over the past 24 hours. This obviously does not mean the consensus is correct though given the time frame. Will, where are the showing a landfall over long island? Central or Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Will, where are the showing a landfall over long island? Central or Eastern? Which models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 sne weenie motto..."hope for the worst, prepare for the best". Lol LOL. Where/what are you thinking currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Anyone care to throw out a timeline as to when the SNE coast would start to feel impacts? (If at all...thanks MEK for the lovely motto ) Gotta be prepared to help out fam in S RI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 LOL. Where/what are you thinking currently? Gut says it goes over ACK. But thats just my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gut says it goes over ACK. But thats just my gut. The GFS ensembles are all clustered that way for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Anyone care to throw out a timeline as to when the SNE coast would start to feel impacts? (If at all...thanks MEK for the lovely motto ) Gotta be prepared to help out fam in S RI... Timing is tough at this point, but I'm planning on heading down to Newport Sunday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Which models? Oops, I meant the euro and gefs ensemble mean lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oops, I meant the euro and gefs ensemble mean lol. Euro ens mean looks like it goes over central (maybe eastern) LI while GFS ens mean looks like it goes over Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gut says it goes over ACK. But thats just my gut. Edna-type track with lower intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hmmm unless wiki is wrong, the name "Edna" was used both in 1953 and 1954? I thought they were cycled every six years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wasn't that around the time they started officially naming storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wasn't that around the time they started officially naming storms? Yup, 1950 or thereabouts I think-- storms had some interesting names back then, like "Dog" and "King." Maybe they hadn't started cycling names yet. Incidentally, Dog was one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic. Lol, the name Dog was used in 1950, 1951 and 1952.... Dog (1950) was the Cat 5 (and has the record for most consecutive days as a Cat 5...peaking at 185 mph and passing within 200 miles of Cape Cod in a weakened state of course lol.) King hit downtown Miami as a 120 mph Cat 3 in 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here comes the Alex OT thread derail . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is not good to use for tropical forecasting...the resolution sucks to diagnose TC dynamics. If you notice...it is actually near the BAMS (low-level steering flow) since the TCs on the ensembles are going to be too weak and shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm still thinking near bench mark is most likely... but if the models are still west... I may need to reevaluate. I still think heavy rain and serious flooding is the biggest threat from this. SE NE especially may need to be concerned for damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is not good to use for tropical forecasting How about the DGEX? lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here comes the Alex OT thread derail . haha, well hurricane history is interesting stuff. Before the days of the internet, I used to collect as many books as I could on past hurricane tracks over NJ, LI and SNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The DGEX actually looks pretty similar to the Euro ensemble mean track, lol. DGEX might be a shade east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This sucker could race north at 40mph through the CT River Valley, while a Cat1, and I'd still probably only get a 25kt gust up here. Therefore I'm hoping the track stays just to my east so that I can get in on the 5"+ rains. Although the possibility of Kevin losing power for a few days would be enticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This sucker could race north at 40mph through the CT River Valley, while a Cat1, and I'd still probably only get a 25kt gust up here. Therefore I'm hoping the track stays just to my east so that I can get in on the 5"+ rains. Although the possibility of Kevin losing power for a few days would be enticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Through 66 gfs wagons east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Through 66 gfs wagons east I'll be shocked if this is more than a low impact rainstorm for WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This may have been discussed already or brought up but... Looks like there is some sort of shortwave trough moving through Canada with a cold front this weekend as well...usually (If I'm correct here) we get shafted from these things b/c fronts/troughs moving through steer them out to sea, however, this is not a deep digging trough and is sliding more from the NW to SE...anyways, b/c of this would this help to tuck the storm closer to the coast and draw it closer to SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow 18z gfs is just like, perfect so far. Even looks to be "tucking in" to avoid any dry continental air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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