tamarack Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The Protection was built after 55 to protect for a 55 type flood. They should be able to handle rain of a similar magnitude. I confess full ignorance of the engineering, but I still wonder about antecedent conditions. Just looked at a couple of CT stations, BDL and Norfolk. BDL got 4"+ from Connie and 14"+ from Diane; at Norfolk it was 9" and 13". However, from May 1 thru August 10 each station had only 6-7" total, about 50% of their normal rainfall. Given about 20" in a week, that probably had only limited effect in limiting the floods, but a MJJ like this year (Norfolk has had nearly 16" from 5/1 thru 8/10, UCC doesn't have BDL past 5/11) might pose a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro ensemble mean takes it over central LI and about up through ORH. Starting to get the feeling from there and points E need to be on heightened awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 boring part of these things is there's not much to examine...watch a model run...check the satellite/recon etc...then wait in the winter there's so many aspects to look at it. meh..I respect your opinion..but that might be because you like winter weather better. Not only do you have the models like in winter storm situations, you have the current state of the storm which can be diagnosed in a number of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're also far enough out that we cannot really get into the meaty details like surge/wind/rain amounts...we are sort of left in limbo speculating on where it makes landfall in SNE if it even does at all. At the moment I'd probably favor the consensus over LI and into interior SNE as that is what the Euro ensemble was despite the OP run being west. But 132 hours is an eternity. yep. feel like i need to watch every tiny detail but also don't want to be fried by the weekend and i know it's not necessary to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 meh..I respect your opinion..but that might be because you like winter weather better. Not only do you have the models like in winter storm situations, you have the current state of the storm which can be diagnosed in a number of ways. yeah perhaps. i don't know. i think if i lived in the SE US or something i'd be more inclined to care about every detail of the system's development. up here, not sure those short-term fluctuations are quite as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Is there any precedent for a slow moving hurricane having a significant impact on our area?? Bob was coming in slower than Donna, Carol, '38 et al but it will still be speeding in faster than this one and this is why Ryan's bearishness has been warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My wife is now convinced... So are my parents. They just called me, "the family weather guy", to make sure I'm stocking up. I told my father that this may be a huge event here. He has the same feeling. Word is getting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes 100-150 miles west of the eye-- Bertha's max rainfalls were in the Poconos, for example. With Gloria, max rainfall at this lat was in NYC and with Bob it was actually in my area (at my lat anyway.) But the 100-150 miles worked pretty well for Maine, too, though PWM with its 7.7" might've been within 70 miles or so. OTOH, Gloria was comparatively rain-poor up here until fully ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I know it's early but its pretty damn hard to go against every piece of guidance saying sne LF including all euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 boring part of these things is there's not much to examine...watch a model run...check the satellite/recon etc...then wait in the winter there's so many aspects to look at it. Many of the marinas are switching into hurricane mode starting tonight or first thing in the morning. Double edged sword for them, they make good money pulling boats but it's marginal as to whether the majority will put their boats back in this late in the season. I know one of my buddies is dropping $300 for an emergency pull right now and they'll want another $300 to put it back in, $300 more to take it back out for what might be a few weeks of use. I am hoping it may still get booted east in time but we shall see not like winter storms where there are things to track as you said. Will be absolute madness down here beginning Wednesday if the tracks stay clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I know it's early but its pretty damn hard to go against every piece of guidance saying sne LF including all euro ensembles How do you know all euro ensembles show landfall in SNE? The mean does, but unless you have a plot of all 50 members, then there's no way to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Many of the marinas are switching into hurricane mode starting tonight or first thing in the morning. Double edged sword for them, they make good money pulling boats but it's marginal as to whether the majority will put their boats back in this late in the season. I know one of my buddies is dropping $300 for an emergency pull right now and they'll want another $300 to put it back in, $300 more to take it back out for what might be a few weeks of use. I am hoping it may still get booted east in time but we shall see not like winter storms where there are things to track as you said. Will be absolute madness down here beginning Wednesday if the tracks stay clustered. You don't mean that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Glad you chimed in Messenger. Been wondering if you would. Hope all is well. I might need to head to Jamestown RI to help family there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Might need to buy a chainsaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 With Irene moving so slow on its way up the coast, land interaction, cooler ssts .........I dont see much of a baroclinic zone for the storm to counteract these negatives, which would perhaps keep the winds up.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're also far enough out that we cannot really get into the meaty details like surge/wind/rain amounts...we are sort of left in limbo speculating on where it makes landfall in SNE if it even does at all. At the moment I'd probably favor the consensus over LI and into interior SNE as that is what the Euro ensemble was despite the OP run being west. But 132 hours is an eternity. All hypothetical of course..but what kind of wind/impacts do you think we'd see with a track like that and say it was a cat 1 or weak cat 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You don't mean that... I'd like to see a hurricane and this one at least really wants to torment us. This late in the game to still have it b'lining for us in most models and only a few showing a miss east? This is going to sound weird but a moderate cane may be what the doctor ordered in terms of spurring on some spending and construction in the aftermath and lead-up....long as we don't end up with a 1938 type situation. Hard to deny there has been a subtle shift east. Someone posted this on the other thread earlier today, http://www.nhc.noaa....9/loop_5W.shtml (the shift east has been consistent even today..) Will that jog continue? Been a pretty good summer hope everyone is happy and healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Really rather fantastic model consensus after the 00z ingestion last night..for this range out. I think it's fair to call this the best potential for a landfall SNE storm in over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 All hypothetical of course..but what kind of wind/impacts do you think we'd see with a track like that and say it was a cat 1 or weak cat 2? We'd probably see winds something a bit lower than Donna in 1960 and a bit lower surge as well given the slower forward movement, but rainfall/flooding would be a greater issue with the slower movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well... Ill be down in Wakefield all weekend at my girlfriends house. Not sure if we are gonna stay there, or take a trip to Cape Cod if this goes a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll almost certainly be going to Yarmouth if this does make landfall, but we have plenty of time to see this go 100 miles in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's exciting that the consensus is for a SNE landfall now.... but that's because the models have been steadily trending east for a couple days now. When this happens with Nor'easters they usually end up moving near the BM or east. The trend would need to stop now.... Really rather fantastic model consensus after the 00z ingestion last night..for this range out. I think it's fair to call this the best potential for a landfall SNE storm in over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll almost certainly be going to Yarmouth if this does make landfall, but we have plenty of time to see this go 100 miles in either direction. See ya there. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think that will be the headliner with this storm.. spot 20"? doubtful, very. We'd need some form of continuous training for a rediculous number like that. I'm still sticking with my spotty 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's exciting that the consensus is for a SNE landfall now.... but that's because the models have been steadily trending east for a couple days now. When this happens with Nor'easters they usually end up moving near the BM or east. The trend would need to stop now.... The trend has actually been converging over SNE...the eastern models over the BM yesterday like the GGEM/Ukie are coming west and the western outliers like Euro and to a lesser extent, the GFS, have come east over the past 24 hours. This obviously does not mean the consensus is correct though given the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll almost certainly be going to Yarmouth if this does make landfall, but we have plenty of time to see this go 100 miles in either direction. I'll set up camp in FMH and then head out from there depending. We'll all have to meet up again if it happens..Though if it tracks over NYC and we see cane gusts here..I'd stay home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Does anyone know if Ryan is still leaning towards a BM track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Am I correct to recall a slower forward motion decreases the peak height of the surge but increases the volume/extent inland of flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Does anyone know if Ryan is still leaning towards a BM track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The trend has actually been converging over SNE...the eastern models over the BM yesterday like the GGEM/Ukie are coming west and the western outliers like Euro and to a lesser extent, the GFS, have come east over the past 24 hours. This obviously does not mean the consensus is correct though given the time frame. A track over the benchmark...would that mean a nor'easter type storm for SNE..or with a possible cat 1 storm could it be more significant around here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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