Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro agrees. You heard it here first. Phil punisher, Kestrel Krusher FMH gusting 115 LOL, I was bustin your nuts and we posted at the same time, if it trends back west a little today you might have something, but way to early for your self pat congrats post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Bob will wake up and find he needs to change the thread title, first hurricane of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL. You can say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL, I was bustin your nuts and we posted at the same time, if it trends back west a little today you might have something, but way to early for your self pat congrats post. Oh I know LOL, still could very well veer into FL. I'm not sold one way or the other. I caught some heat in the main Irene thread for mentioning a fish or eastern Carolinas hit as a possibilty just a couple days ago, though. This thing is beating every benchmark to the north ...that the NHC gave two-three days lead. Also, given that (less land interaction), the storm should inherently be more well organized (avoiding land masses). These factors seem to allow poleward motion from the incoming troughs through the central and east US. The global models with an init of a more disorganized and smaller/compact system and initializing too far south were the ones with the least poleward motion, either south or over all of those islands. since the Euro and other models have caught onto intensity and center jumps more accurately (STILL catching up to the past few days of surprises regarding some models, right?), that leads me to think that the most likely option was and will continue to be end-game track east, even if just slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You can say that again. eh...still 7 days out. i wouldn't sweat it if i were you (not saying you are). honestly i hope it doesn't come through as a full on cane with you not in town. that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 eh...still 7 days out. i wouldn't sweat it if i were you (not saying you are). honestly i hope it doesn't come through as a full on cane with you not in town. that would suck. Eh..if it does..it does. I would want to see this track 2 days out if I were in SNE...but who knows. I hope it's fun for someone on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The hurricane threads will be unbearable today with northeast weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 eh...still 7 days out. i wouldn't sweat it if i were you (not saying you are). honestly i hope it doesn't come through as a full on cane with you not in town. that would suck. Yea that would suck not having Scoot around but some times someone has to take it for the team if he is on IR then you being the new Met have to step up your game big time. Thrust into starting lineup, no pressure though. Irene might miss Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Eh..if it does..it does. I would want to see this track 2 days out if I were in SNE...but who knows. I hope it's fun for someone on the East Coast. ENS data is most interesting, been inside the BM for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The hurricane threads will be unbearable today with northeast weenies. tropical systems are such a crapshoot. only need what, 14 more runs of the euro to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 All of the global models from this morning are not showing a deep enough cyclone (and previous runs had the same issue). That's probably why they've had a persistent leftward bias on Irene's track. The NOGAPS and GGEM (not surprisingly) have the worst initializations and short-term forecasts of Irene's intensity. The ECMWF, with its high resolution, has the best initialization and short-term forecast intensity-wise. As long as Irene continues intensifying I have a hard time seeing a substantial leftward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 So I am out here on an island fishing trying to kill the bug on my IPAD screen, damn Dendrite. GGEM destroys ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Phil will appreciate this, Sundays tide is the highest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well it looks like a direct high impact hit from Irene is a virtual lock. I hope folks are getting prepared this week..This could be one for the record books. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well it looks like a direct high impact hit from Irene is a virtual lock. I hope folks are getting prepared this week..This could be one for the record books. Enjoy I bought a candle yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Phil will appreciate this, Sundays tide is the highest of the month. yeah i saw that the other day...but it also means it some of the lowest of the month too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well it looks like a direct high impact hit from Irene is a virtual lock. I hope folks are getting prepared this week..This could be one for the record books. Enjoy are you scared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 06z gfs is kinda interesting...makes landfall over northern SC but then moves off the east coast and makes a second landfall in central LI/western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 are you scared? I'm actually psyched. Already making plans to head to the Cape house if need be.though I'd prefer a hit like the 6z GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm actually psyched. Already making plans to head to the Cape house if need be.though I'd prefer a hit like the 6z GFS shows nice...you should check in with birving i think he has a place in falmouth too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 yeah i saw that the other day...but it also means it some of the lowest of the month too. lol Bob, Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well after reading the posts I am pumped...probably setting myself up for disappointment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well after reading the posts I am pumped...probably setting myself up for disappointment... When we see the eyewall 100 mi off ACY it's time to get pumped. It's nice to not be completely out of the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm actually psyched. Already making plans to head to the Cape house if need be.though I'd prefer a hit like the 6z GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 nice...you should check in with birving i think he has a place in falmouth too I"m surprised you're not more psyched about this high impact hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 nice...you should check in with birving i think he has a place in falmouth too Kevins place could hold a future Americanwx conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I"m surprised you're not more psyched about this high impact hit 9 inch QPF , heavy heavy interior floods, Pete , MPM isolated for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I"m surprised you're not more psyched about this high impact hit As a pro, he has to keep a poker face for the public. Inside, though, he's peeing his pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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