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Hurricane Irene


Baroclinic Zone

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LOL, I was bustin your nuts and we posted at the same time, if it trends back west a little today you might have something, but way to early for your self pat congrats post.

Oh I know LOL, still could very well veer into FL. I'm not sold one way or the other.

I caught some heat in the main Irene thread for mentioning a fish or eastern Carolinas hit as a possibilty just a couple days ago, though.

This thing is beating every benchmark to the north ...that the NHC gave two-three days lead. Also, given that (less land interaction), the storm should inherently be more well organized (avoiding land masses).

These factors seem to allow poleward motion from the incoming troughs through the central and east US.

The global models with an init of a more disorganized and smaller/compact system and initializing too far south were the ones with the least poleward motion, either south or over all of those islands. since the Euro and other models have caught onto intensity and center jumps more accurately (STILL catching up to the past few days of surprises regarding some models, right?), that leads me to think that the most likely option was and will continue to be end-game track east, even if just slightly.

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eh...still 7 days out. i wouldn't sweat it if i were you (not saying you are). honestly i hope it doesn't come through as a full on cane with you not in town. that would suck.

Eh..if it does..it does. I would want to see this track 2 days out if I were in SNE...but who knows. I hope it's fun for someone on the East Coast.

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eh...still 7 days out. i wouldn't sweat it if i were you (not saying you are). honestly i hope it doesn't come through as a full on cane with you not in town. that would suck.

Yea that would suck not having Scoot around but some times someone has to take it for the team if he is on IR then you being the new Met have to step up your game big time. Thrust into starting lineup, no pressure though.

Irene might miss Hispaniola.

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All of the global models from this morning are not showing a deep enough cyclone (and previous runs had the same issue). That's probably why they've had a persistent leftward bias on Irene's track. The NOGAPS and GGEM (not surprisingly) have the worst initializations and short-term forecasts of Irene's intensity. The ECMWF, with its high resolution, has the best initialization and short-term forecast intensity-wise. As long as Irene continues intensifying I have a hard time seeing a substantial leftward turn.

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