Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wrongo dongo The euro passes west of nyc Kevin, not sure what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It goes from NW NJ at 132h to the MA/CT/NY triple point at 138h. At 00z it went from E PA to Albany or GFL...so this track is east of 00z but still west of most other guidance. what did it have for strength upon landfall, was it over land for a while first and weakened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It goes from NW NJ at 132h to the MA/CT/NY triple point at 138h. At 00z it went from E PA to Albany or GFL...so this track is east of 00z but still west of most other guidance. thoughts? pretty decent consensus right now for something making LF in the general SNE vicinity. not sure at what point to really jump on board...think the time is soon. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It goes from NW NJ at 132h to the MA/CT/NY triple point at 138h. At 00z it went from E PA to Albany or GFL...so this track is east of 00z but still west of most other guidance. It's like all the globals are narrowing their spread up here to the BDL/ORH corridor. Yeah the spread seems to be narrowing in on the NYC area for western track to about Ct/RI border for eastern track. Pretty good concensus for 5 days out..Certainly mking for some fun times around here..and one that SNE as a whole hasn't seen in 2 decades now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 thoughts? pretty decent consensus right now for something making LF in the general SNE vicinity. not sure at what point to really jump on board...think the time is soon. LOL I'm waiting till Thursday morning to be on board fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 weakening wind field on NW side...expanding east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 thoughts? pretty decent consensus right now for something making LF in the general SNE vicinity. not sure at what point to really jump on board...think the time is soon. LOL I'm really not going to try and pinpoint a track here until at least tomorrow night. But I do like how the models are keeping it west and not over the Cape right now. If we assume that globals hold their position for another 60-72 hours, then we can start thinking about a RI or SE MA landfall as they always shift E in the final 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I assume flooding is the biggest threat up here in the Merr. Valley. If this happens I wonder what how this would compare to Mother's Day '06/April '07/etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm waiting till Thursday morning to be on board fully. Bus might be gone by then...you will have to run and catch up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm waiting till Thursday morning to be on board fully. Good idea...I wonder if the east trend is not done yet...seems we've been down this road only to have our weenies deflated by a storm that "suddenly" veered east last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm really not going to try and pinpoint a track here until at least tomorrow night. But I do like how the models are keeping it west and not over the Cape right now. If we assume that globals hold their position for another 60-72 hours, then we can start thinking about a RI or SE MA landfall as they always shift E in the final 2 days. Always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Always? Pretty much, lol. Name me one that didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i was 6 or so when bob's eye went right over my house in SE mass so my memory isn't so good, if a tropical system came into CT would Eastern RI and Eastern mass get a good wind lashing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Pretty much, lol. Name me one that didn't. Hazel, Isabel, 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hazel, Isabel, 1938 Hazel and Isabel were NC landfalls...irrelevant to us. Can you give me a copy of the 1938 model output 48 hours out so we can check? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You just have to get chills reading this Agreed completely. I know the models were way off on their forecasts from several days ago, but a lot of that had to do with not getting the location of genesis correct or picking up on how deep the system got early on. Now that we have a well developed system and a pretty straightforward synoptic setup, it is hard for me to imagine the models being so far off that this totally misses everything to the right, especially given that the forecast seems to agree well with the mean synoptics of amplified ridges to the west and east. Not saying that there won't still be some adjustments or surprises - but it seems like we are narrowing down toward an E NC to SNE type of impact. The EC would have be 10 degrees too far west on its day 4-7 forecast for this to be a complete fish - not impossible, obviously (what is?) but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hazel and Isabel were NC landfalls...irrelevant to us. Can you give me a copy of the 1938 model output 48 hours out so we can check? But the point is they didn't bend east..Hugo is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm really not going to try and pinpoint a track here until at least tomorrow night. But I do like how the models are keeping it west and not over the Cape right now. If we assume that globals hold their position for another 60-72 hours, then we can start thinking about a RI or SE MA landfall as they always shift E in the final 2 days. Bertha I think was further west. I remember seeing a track to Montauk Pt being forecast and it tracked over JFK. That would actually be much more significant than a track over the cape, because all of us would be in the right front quadrant. The MTP forecast track was actually still there 12 hours before the storm came up here and it was off by 100 miles lol-- too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hazel and Isabel were NC landfalls...irrelevant to us. Can you give me a copy of the 1938 model output 48 hours out so we can check? Data ingestion issues prior to that one I'm afraid. Not enough dropsondes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm really not going to try and pinpoint a track here until at least tomorrow night. But I do like how the models are keeping it west and not over the Cape right now. If we assume that globals hold their position for another 60-72 hours, then we can start thinking about a RI or SE MA landfall as they always shift E in the final 2 days. yeah half expected to see the 12z runs near the canal...and as such the beginning of game over. still so far to go with this and obviously little players along the way will matter in terms of sensible weather impacts. don't have much feeling for wind/surge impacts yet/if at all, but confidence for serious rain threat for someone is going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But the point is they didn't bend east..Hugo is another. Pssst, Bertha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Blizzards, TOR's, Earthquake.. We've already legged out a triple this year....let's go for the grand slam ..the moon over my hammy.. a direct hit from a cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But the point is they didn't bend east..Hugo is another. I'm not talking about where it makes landfall here, I'm talking about model bias 2 days out up here on TCs. They almost always trend E within those last couple days...whether that's from NYC to HVN or from GON to Cape Cod, I don't know at this point, but the model bias has been pretty glaring on TCs up here. Maybe this year will be different and it will trend W in the final 2 days, but I certainly would not bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But the point is they didn't bend east..Hugo is another. Hugo? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm not talking about where it makes landfall here, I'm talking about model bias 2 days out up here on TCs. They almost always trend E within those last couple days...whether that's from NYC to HVN or from GON to Cape Cod, I don't know at this point, but the model bias has been pretty glaring on TCs up here. Maybe this year will be different and it will trend W in the final 2 days, but I certainly would not bet on it. The most rain is usually west side, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm not talking about where it makes landfall here, I'm talking about model bias 2 days out up here on TCs. They almost always trend E within those last couple days...whether that's from NYC to HVN or from GON to Cape Cod, I don't know at this point, but the model bias has been pretty glaring on TCs up here. Maybe this year will be different and it will trend W in the final 2 days, but I certainly would not bet on it. I don't think this will trend west either..and we really don't want it to..I think the Euro track might be better for us wind damage wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm not talking about where it makes landfall here, I'm talking about model bias 2 days out up here on TCs. They almost always trend E within those last couple days...whether that's from NYC to HVN or from GON to Cape Cod, I don't know at this point, but the model bias has been pretty glaring on TCs up here. Maybe this year will be different and it will trend W in the final 2 days, but I certainly would not bet on it. Will, look up the Bertha track-- I distinctly remember that was forecast to go over MTP and went over JFK instead (and that was within 12 hours.) JFK to Bridgeport actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The most rain is usually west side, right? Yes 100-150 miles west of the eye-- Bertha's max rainfalls were in the Poconos, for example. With Gloria, max rainfall at this lat was in NYC and with Bob it was actually in my area (at my lat anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Larry Cosgrove just posted this on his Facebook page. HWRF and ECMWF model results are in folks. This is going to be one hell of a storm, and anyone living from NC northward to SE QC and NB are about to get hot with a hurricane. Worst impacts Philadelphia and New York metros. I will have an update on examiner.com Yes, it really IS that bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes 100-150 miles west of the eye-- Bertha's max rainfalls were in the Poconos, for example. With Gloria, max rainfall at this lat was in NYC and with Bob it was actually in my area (at my lat anyway.) Don't forget Floyd raping NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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