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Hurricane Irene


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah, only question is ....staying at the house, or the cottage? D:

I don't know...still concerned about the eastern track which would put a boatload of rain for everyone but not much wind. I think Ryan is DEAD on with his concerns about wind potential. XT transition in a slow moving cane this far north...just not a good wind setup. That is assuming this thing crawls at under 20mph. A dead-on hit of the center near PVD or EWB would most likely place that stronger wind shield 50-100 miles east of the center as it expands.

Irene should be fully tropical at our latitude. It's not interacting with the westerlies at all, and there's no pronounced baroclinic zone nearby. The question is how much it weakens over the cooler waters.

If Irene makes landfall up here at > cat 1 strength, I want to get to the coast.

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I felt my chair and desk shaking a bit - my office is on Huntington Avenue in Boston (ground floor). I thought maybe I was just a bit light-headed.

I'm at 111 on the 24th floor - we were rocking and rolling up here. Thought I was passing out at first. There's a first for me!

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Irene should be fully tropical at our latitude. It's not interacting with the westerlies at all, and there's no pronounced baroclinic zone nearby. The question is how much it weakens over the cooler waters.

If Irene makes landfall up here at > cat 1 strength, I want to get to the coast.

Hmm not sure...some models do look kind of "frontal" with this thing, mostly after any landfall or latitude above 42. However, most cyclones begin that transition well prior to that type of "look". XT aside- which is probably a bad point on my part- Not sure what to expect honestly, but there has never been (To my knowledge) any PURELY tropical cyclone to strike NE in modern times except maybe Carol? And that is clearly not a good analog as we know.

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Euro has shifted east, similar to GFS (maybe a tad slower) at 96 hours. Folks, we have consensus, this is likely headed for extreme eastern NC for first landfall

18Z Sunday 960mb mouth of the Chesapeake- looks to making a beeline for NYC...

After that it gets interesting, most guidance suggests that the entire coast gets raked up to either New England or NYC/Long Island. A complete fish is looking less and less likely, This will be a big ratings grabber for TWC.....

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