Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lundberg FTW today This should draw Irene even more toward the north this weekend, then it just becomes a matter of how fast this will all take place and how it will impact the exact path of the storm. Those questions are a little hard to nail down with great preciseness right now, but suffice it to say the eastern Carolinas are clearly at risk of getting a hit from a major hurricane this weekend. Pretty much anyone from the Carolinas, especially eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, up through the mid-Atlantic states into New England, are likely to get hit hard by this storm, at least in terms of excessive rain and probably damaging, if not destructive, winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ryan, agree with you on the wind aspect. With the forward speed concern should be (1) rain in W NE -- easily 10"+ -- and (2) surge flooding for Narragansett and Buzzards Bay. Slow northward motion will only allow more water to pile east of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah. My sibs and I are hosting my dad's 80th birthday party in Springfield on Sunday afternoon. Either we're going to have a lot of wet people or a lot of leftovers. At least we'll be able to talk about the weather! -monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ryan, agree with you on the wind aspect. With the forward speed concern should be (1) rain in W NE -- easily 10"+ -- and (2) surge flooding for Narragansett and Buzzards Bay. Slow northward motion will only allow more water to pile east of the system. Yeah a multi-hazard storm... potential for major fresh water flooding serious/destructive surge (even in the GFS case west of the track in LIS) Damaging winds but probably not extreme/destructive given slow motion of storm. Belle crawled up the coast and weakened very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well 1955 will never happen again with the flood control that is in place. The most vulnerable rivers won't flood anywhere near like they did in 55. True especially for Hartford. Areas like Putnam might be vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 True especially for Hartford. Areas like Putnam might be vulnerable. Actually just the opposite... hydro man The Connecticut and Housatonic Rivers are the most vulnerable as they have the least amount of flood control. The Farmington, Naugatuck, Shetucket, and Quinebaug are in great shape since the Army Corps basically turned them into trickles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Actually just the opposite... hydro man The Connecticut and Housatonic Rivers are the most vulnerable as they have the least amount of flood control. The Farmington, Naugatuck, Shetucket, and Quinebaug are in great shape since the Army Corps basically turned them into trickles. There are flood control dams up in southern Mass as well: Buffumville, Hodges, and West Hill in Thompson in Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ryan is this the best shot a cane since Floyd you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what do you guys currently see for a timeframe ? assuming we have a PRE when would that start ? Saturday rain free then PRE overnight Sunday morning then Irene later on Sunday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think you're overplaying that too much. There would be cane force gusts over just about all of SNE and even CNE for that matter if the GFS verified verbatim Disagree. Immediate coast maybe but gfs is probably not nearly as windy as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There are flood control dams up in southern Mass as well: Buffumville, Hodges, and West Hill in Thompson in Ct. Yup that whole system protects downstream towns in Connecticut. The Farmington, naugatuck, and quinebaug flood protection systems are enormous. Barring a catastrophic failure major flooding is unlikely on any of those rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Disagree. Immediate coast maybe but gfs is probably not nearly as windy as you think. Really? Someone else in the main thread said that the GFS tends to downplay the tropical winds. See below...am I reading this wrong? "Quite right. Actually, if you were to go one step further, you would see that for anytime period prior to landfall on Long Island, the max speed out of the GFS is in the 60-65 kt range just south of NC. It's a synoptic scale model in a meso-scale situation, amongst other things, when was the last time you saw a 50kt wind on the GFS? Similarly, the Euro only has speeds up to 55-60kts around NC, 40-45 nearest to Long Island." Paweatherguy1, on 23 August 2011 - 11:47 AM, said: That is what I thought, so wouldn't it be more prudent when trying to look at wind speeds to look at those models rather than say "the GFS only has 50kt windspeeds." It seems you would be misusing the GFS if you are trying to gauge landfall wind speeds off of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Disagree. Immediate coast maybe but gfs is probably not nearly as windy as you think. I know you know this..but the GFS wind speeds that some have posted are not the actual wind speeds at ground level.That's not how the GFS works..They would be quite a bit stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 IF Irene continues to take aim on New England, is anyone planning on chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I know you know this..but the GFS wind speeds that some have posted are not the actual wind speeds at ground level.That's not how the GFS works..They would be quite a bit stronger.. I didn't even look at them. I'm just telling you that if you expect widespread 65 knot gusts from a gfs type pf solution throughout sne and cne you will be disappointed. Looks to me like maybe some cat 1 winds bid/mtp hurricane force gusts shoreline east of gon then some 50 knotters inland east of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yup that whole system protects downstream towns in Connecticut. The Farmington, naugatuck, and quinebaug flood protection systems are enormous. Barring a catastrophic failure major flooding is unlikely on any of those rivers. 1955 dumped 12-20" over a wide area in a relatively short time. I'd think that there wasn't enough money available to fully protect against that magnitude of event, especially when things have been quite wet already. What are the current levels behind the dams? 12z gfs moves the huge dump about 150 miles SW of 06z run, BOS-to-AUG now "only" 5-6" while BDR gets 10" and HVN 11". These latter two also get 1"+ the day before, just to get people in the mood. (All of which doesn't mean a whole lot at this distance in time.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Quite right. Actually, if you were to go one step further, you would see that for anytime period prior to landfall on Long Island, the max speed out of the GFS is in the 60-65 kt range just south of NC. It's a synoptic scale model in a meso-scale situation, amongst other things, when was the last time you saw a 50kt wind on the GFS? Similarly, the Euro only has speeds up to 55-60kts around NC, 40-45 nearest to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ^^^Yep...that's what I posted, but you did it better...still trying to learn how to post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 IF Irene continues to take aim on New England, is anyone planning on chasing? Yeah, only question is ....staying at the house, or the cottage? D: I don't know...still concerned about the eastern track which would put a boatload of rain for everyone but not much wind. I think Ryan is DEAD on with his concerns about wind potential. XT transition in a slow moving cane this far north...just not a good wind setup. That is assuming this thing crawls at under 20mph. A dead-on hit of the center near PVD or EWB would most likely place that stronger wind shield 50-100 miles east of the center as it expands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow if this is not a dicey ...super high risk scenario for the I-95 corridor nothing is! Considering that by D4 the average NHC forecast error is 200 mi, 250 by D5, the implicaitons range from almost no impact, to who-knows-what... The speed of this thing limits the "slam" in scenario. One thing to note, for New England (and NS for that matter), the shelf waters are typically ineffectual at weakening the systems substantially enough because they are moving so fast; in this case, this 24 hours to move from the latitude of Cape H to LI is too long.... That means it will spend a minimum of 8 hours over the shelf waters tucked in NW of the Gulf Stream, and that should impose a weakening - how much so is uncertain, BECAUSE, the water in the shelf region is in the mid to upper 70s. The thermocline is shallow there, so it wouldn't take long to upwell, but it is a little worrisome that a TC moving N paralleling the EC toward LI might not be impeded as much as one normally would. This last 2 weeks of any given August are like that - you really get most of these up there in September, when the apex SSTs are by the board and probably there has already been a NW synoptic flow event to turn over the summer waters. That has not happened yet so a typical translation over the shelf does carry a little bit of uncertainty as to how much mitigation would be imposed. That said, obviously SC/NC/DE/NJ/NYC are all on the table in this poker game right now and no hands have been callled... Although, SC is sweating and everyone at the table knows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In preperation for a possible windy start to next week, the big ole' silver maple in front of my house decided to shed a limb last night. Luckily there was no one on rte 169 when it decided to fall. Even luckier for me is the state decided that they are going to clear the whole thing out (taking down the rest of the tree) due to the danger it could pose on Brooklyn fair goers this weekend (we are just up the road from the fairgrounds). I've put off taking this 100 plus year old tree down due to the cost $3,000-4,000. Irene won't be throwing this tree into my bedroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1955 dumped 12-20" over a wide area in a relatively short time. I'd think that there wasn't enough money available to fully protect against that magnitude of event, especially when things have been quite wet already. What are the current levels behind the dams? 12z gfs moves the huge dump about 150 miles SW of 06z run, BOS-to-AUG now "only" 5-6" while BDR gets 10" and HVN 11". These latter two also get 1"+ the day before, just to get people in the mood. (All of which doesn't mean a whole lot at this distance in time.) The Protection was built after 55 to protect for a 55 type flood. They should be able to handle rain of a similar magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs and gem paint a disturbing picture for western long island sound. East winds would pile water into that area and not allow the water to evacuate, the slow movement is almost a worse case scenario for western sound coastal residents even if the storm passed east later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs and gem paint a disturbing picture for western long island sound. East winds would pile water into that area and not allow the water to evacuate, the slow movement is almost a worse case scenario for western sound coastal residents even if the storm passed east later. I agree... A slow moving borderline cat 1 with high astro tides is not good for lis especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The biggest Euro run of Ryan's life begins shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 anyone feel the earthquake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Someone at my work said they were talking to a client in Baltimore who said their blinds were shaking and then 5 min later we felt it...weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earthquake - downtown boston - building was shaking on the 24th floor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 anyone feel the earthquake? USGS had it had a 5.8 in VA... end of days is near apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 anyone feel the earthquake? Yep...Springfield, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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