CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well the GFS trended west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Right into RI. East of there is well...very windy..lol. good kite flying weather in Seekonk and Atttleboro im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like ~976mb at landfall...not too shabby there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's not a classic SNE pattern at 500mb, though. Weird, but I guess the sample size isn't all that great. Still would be cautious imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Basically a track maybe 20 miles west of Bob. At peak monthly tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 And I'm getting body work done on my car to be completed by Friday. If worst case scenario verified...anyone have extra room in their garage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Carol, 1815 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's not a classic SNE pattern at 500mb, though. Weird, but I guess the sample size isn't all that great. Still would be cautious imo. yeah and you can see that in the forward speed. it takes its time getting through. verbatim dumps crapload of rain in W NE/NYC/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I see Joe B on Sunday giving everyone the finger at Watch Hill, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A 971mb TS? Gloria was 965mb at Connecticut landfall and a 65 knot cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Now I'm off. Would appreciate a euro update from Phil, Ryan et al if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's not a classic SNE pattern at 500mb, though. Weird, but I guess the sample size isn't all that great. Still would be cautious imo. Yeah...it's almost like a Gloria type of track (a bit east) at a much, much lower speed. Again no one should forecast a SNE cane that moves up the jersey shore at 15 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Now I'm off. Would appreciate a euro update from Phil, Ryan et al if possible. absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Obviously the GFS would absolutely crush boston if the 12z verified but based on the distribution of precip and wind it seems to look like it's becoming extratropical which isn't surprising at our latitude. Where do the mets thnk this starts going extratropical, Delmarva? or further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1635 type track, Buzz Bay destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NE gales for Kevin. Major major damage...Not an oak left standing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yeah and you can see that in the forward speed. it takes its time getting through. verbatim dumps crapload of rain in W NE/NYC/NJ Yeah W CT is just blitzed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're well above average for Aug. precip already, with more likely coming Thursday along with the frontal passage, and then this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Besides the pornographic aspect of the 12z GFS... I am glad we stopped the east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Besides the pornographic aspect of the 12z GFS... I am glad we stopped the east trend. AWT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We're well above average for Aug. precip already, with more likely coming Thursday along with the frontal passage, and then this: A storm moving on that track at 15-20 mph we would see devastating flooding in western New England. The impacts would be the worst since 1955. You can probably double the GFS totals for a tropical system on that track... maximizing orographic lift and just crawling north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ok fellas, cutting the trip a day short....should be home in time to tape up the windows by Saturday night...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What we all wouldn't give for this triple XXX run to verify.. I might give up a major winter storm or 2 for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What we all wouldn't give for this triple XXX run to verify.. I might give up a major winter storm or 2 for it I think some would be disappointed with the winds in the GFS track/speed. I think the storm would start winding down pretty quickly with such slow movement and the lack of any solid baroclinic enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A storm moving on that track at 15-20 mph we would see devastating flooding in western New England. The impacts would be the worst since 1955. You can probably double the GFS totals for a tropical system on that track... maximizing orographic lift and just crawling north. I got weenies for mentioning 1955 last week by two mets, that would be incredible considering how much as been built up since then in those flood areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ok fellas, cutting the trip a day short....should be home in time to tape up the windows by Saturday night...lol... I knew jerry was gone! Stay outta NE! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I got weenies for mentioning 1955 last week by two mets, that would be incredible considering how much as been built up since then in those flood areas. Well 1955 will never happen again with the flood control that is in place. The most vulnerable rivers won't flood anywhere near like they did in 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A storm moving on that track at 15-20 mph we would see devastating flooding in western New England. The impacts would be the worst since 1955. You can probably double the GFS totals for a tropical system on that track... maximizing orographic lift and just crawling north. If that does happen, do I stay in MHT for biblical rains or go to HYA for wind?? Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think some would be disappointed with the winds in the GFS track/speed. I think the storm would start winding down pretty quickly with such slow movement and the lack of any solid baroclinic enhancement. I think you're overplaying that too much. There would be cane force gusts over just about all of SNE and even CNE for that matter if the GFS verified verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The new model features on wundground are freaking awesome, here's the wind speeds as the eye goes over ORH saved for posterity. 12Z GFS Porn Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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