CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They seem to be cautious with the eastward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nah they shifted it east Discussion also calls into question the amount of strengthening. They say shear will continue next couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They seem to be cautious with the eastward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They seem to be cautious with the eastward shift. Ghost of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They seem to be cautious with the eastward shift. They're pretty close to the consensus models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lots of ship jumpers around the boards for a storm that is days and days from getting near here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Discussion also calls into question the amount of strengthening. They say shear will continue next couple days? Yeah from that first trough that misses. Although, it could also provide an outflow channel. Maybe it's one of those things where we have a 2000mile long cirrus tail heading northeast of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They're pretty close to the consensus models Yeah it is, they just mentioned a little too the left of the models consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah from that first trough that misses. Although, it could also provide an outflow channel. Maybe it's one of those things where we have a 2000mile long cirrus tail heading northeast of it. So 3 days of cirrus and not a drop of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Discussion also calls into question the amount of strengthening. They say shear will continue next couple days? yeah - wonder how much of it shear or proximity to land just not allowing it to really go to town right now. maybe slight combo of both is just enough to keep it from deepening too much for the time being? i'd think once it's removed from the inflow from the island and moving a bit more parallel to the mid and upper level flow it'll do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So 3 days of cirrus and not a drop of rain? I mean the sat presentation.. LOL, you are killing Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not much of an eastward shift at all..which they even state in the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not much of an eastward shift at all..which they even state in the discussion i think Tippy has a '38-esque forecast going...no landfall in NC, just straight up into Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i think Tippy has a '38-esque forecast going...no landfall in NC, just straight up into Tolland. While I'd love for track up over NYC..I think the most likely is far SE CT or RI /SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 While I'd love for track up over NYC..I think the most likely is far SE CT or RI /SE Mass well you'd get some good rain with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 well you'd get some good rain with that I wouldn't be here if it took that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Congrats everyone http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/hurricane-irene-could-deal-devestating-blow-to-eastern-north-carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dude, weatherunderground, just dropped the mother of all weenie bombs. It's got ECMWF data every 3 hours to hr 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Congrats everyone http://www.examiner....-north-carolina His and Mallow's track are good for 5 days out. I like those for now too, although I think it may go a little more east...but for 5 days out..that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 His and Mallow's track are good for 5 days out. I like those for now too. Earlier you said it would scrape ACK??? while Ryan said it would be outside the BM.. hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earlier you said it would scrape ACK??? while Ryan said it would be outside the BM.. hmmmm Read my edit. For 5 days out..that's good for now. It may go a little east, but I would not draw a BM track. Talking about a storm's behavior and drawing an official track are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I am an awe with Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earlier you said it would scrape ACK??? while Ryan said it would be outside the BM.. hmmmm Nope... go back and read my post. I said over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Read my edit. For 5 days out..that's good for now. It may go a little east, but I would not draw a BM track. Talking about a storm's behavior and drawing an official track are two different things. Noyes loves the Bertha analog..Just a much stronger version of it. there was some decent wind with Bertha. I think we'd all be happy with a track similiar to that but stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nope... go back and read my post. I said over the BM. Any BM track sucks for everyone anyway..so we're tossing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I am an awe with Wunderground. Yeah their model viewer page is pretty neat, especially since they use google maps and you can zoom in and out. It's a little slow right now, as I imagine a ton of people are on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dude, weatherunderground, just dropped the mother of all weenie bombs. It's got ECMWF data every 3 hours to hr 180. yeah just saw that....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Any BM track sucks for everyone anyway..so we're tossing that It could easily pull an Earl. Like I said...I don't think you can draw that track now, but certainly could see that. Hopefully it's more towards the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Any BM track sucks for everyone anyway..so we're tossing that The surfers will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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