snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. How far from ack was Earl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. 6-12" lollis to 18" Big, big, winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How far from ack was Earl? Earl went about 5 miles nw of the 40/70 BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. GFS. ENS from last week had runs and runs of BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Watch the GFS have the right idea with tropics (which it seems to have in the last two years) then completely sh*t the bed this winter, with SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The thing that makes me wonder, is having a reliable global model be so far west. It sort of gives me pause, but we'll see I guess. i just wish it were displaying a little better consistency. one thing is certain is everything has been verifying too far southwest. the errors are fairly substantial too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is the most likely path: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Watch the GFS have the right idea with tropics (which it seems to have in the last two years) then completely sh*t the bed this winter, with SWFE. Really? Stats show the Euro to have the best model performance on tropical systems since 2006 when it was tweaked. I'll try to post the link that shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i just wish it were displaying a little better consistency. one thing is certain is everything has been verifying too far southwest. the errors are fairly substantial too. I know it. I hope it doesn't leave you guys blue balled...even if I'm not around. A storm like that going over the Cape would have a pretty big impact even at BOS with rain and wind. I'm hoping you get something, honestly. This will be a storm where every wobble west will have you guys with a pants tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earl went about 5 miles nw of the 40/70 BM. Earl went outside the BM. It tracked over 40N/69.7W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earl went outside the BM. It tracked over 40N/69.7W Oh ok, so 5 miles se of the BM..lol. Either way, the wind impacts were meh, but it was also not a strong storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oh ok, so 5 miles se of the BM..lol. Either way, the wind impacts were meh, but it was also not a strong storm at all. Wasn't Earl a cat 4 at one point though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The ridge is strong off the east coast will not allow the hurricane to go out to sea . The storm likely move along the east coast and along the nj coast . likely to be cat 2 in sne area or cat 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like it's moving almost due west currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5 day NHC position is just about over Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wasn't Earl a cat 4 at one point though? Yep, he was a big boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5 day NHC position is just about over Ocean City, MD How strong in Ct were the winds from Doria? maybe 60 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How strong in Ct were the winds from Doria? maybe 60 mph? Gusts to 70 at the coast probably. PVD and BOS were sustained at 45 mph or so IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is the most likely path: http://en.wikipedia....cane_Earl_(2010) Jeeze I hope not. I'm crossing my fingers for a sharper recurve. Wasted a couple of days for clean up after Earl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I know it. I hope it doesn't leave you guys blue balled...even if I'm not around. A storm like that going over the Cape would have a pretty big impact even at BOS with rain and wind. I'm hoping you get something, honestly. This will be a storm where every wobble west will have you guys with a pants tent. it'll make for an entertaining week...that's been my feeling all along. better than having it spinning through the caribbean from a local meteo perspective. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The ridge is strong off the east coast will not allow the hurricane to go out to sea . The storm likely move along the east coast and along the nj coast . likely to be cat 2 in sne area or cat 3 . Buckle your seatbelts everyone, we're in for a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC cone is going to make the media go wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 20 years since there has been a true hit in NY and NE. Can't say we aren't due for it. I was 25 when Bob hit ....didn't realize how young I was then. 5 day NHC position is just about over Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 it'll make for an entertaining week...that's been my feeling all along. better than having it spinning through the caribbean from a local meteo perspective. LOL. Those are my thoughts too.. better than a lame SVR threat.. nice way to kill a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5 day NHC position is just about over Ocean City, MD Why are they showing that if the models you posted show it tracking more over the ocean? Unless I am reading it wrong. Why are they thinking the track is a little west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 it'll make for an entertaining week...that's been my feeling all along. better than having it spinning through the caribbean from a local meteo perspective. LOL. It does show how perfect things have to be for a big NE hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC basically has the same track as they did at 5:00 am..no east trend there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC basically has the same track as they did at 5:00 am..no east trend there nah they shifted it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is the ugliest looking CAT 2 we've ever seen. Labeling this thing a CAT 2 at this moment is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC basically has the same track as they did at 5:00 am..no east trend there There was absolutely a trend east on the NHC forecast. About 50 miles or so... instead of Wilmington it's Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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