CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You have to think the Euro's bizarre option of not moving it NE and instead moving due north won't verify. I have a hard time seeing it not moving east of north once it gets up into Virginia..but who knows. I'd think a Euro/GFS combo might be a better solution. Euro ensembles similiar to the op??? Yeah but I think that NE trend late in the game will screw CT. I think a track over Cape is def possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yup still playing with the speed too. 06z gfs has hurricane conditions developing on Long Island saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hurricane Irene looks set to begin quick deepening with the morning visible. Beautiful CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah but I think that NE trend late in the game will screw CT. I think a track over Cape is def possible. I could envision it near NYC moving NE..which would be ideal for us..but only 1 of many possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 still playing with the speed too. 06z gfs has hurricane conditions developing on Long Island saturday night. I still have a hard time buying a SNE hurricane with the storm moving NE at 20 mph from the Outer Banks. To me that seems like a Belle kind of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah but I think that NE trend late in the game will screw CT. I think a track over Cape is def possible. agreed not looking good for NYC at this stage of the game, Euro seems way off and a track like the 6z GFS is more climo favorable with limited impacts NYC on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow Euro ensemble members are very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow Euro ensemble members are very impressive From what I've been able to gather..they would be a high impact for SNE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cane of 1821...not far off at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cane of 1821...not far off at all Except 1821 was hauling... this will be crawling. Don't underestimate the importance of baroclinic enhancement of SNE hurricanes. With the slow movement and no powerful phase we will see this weaken a little more quickly than most big hurricanes we remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They all go over NC and a fair amount of coastal plain I assume so this can't be 1938... But it could still be a cat 1 at our latitude I suppose if it moves fast enough. Have to like where we are at.. gfs slams the cape.. euro slams NYC.. sne right in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow Euro ensemble members are very impressive Where do most LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Except 1821 was hauling... this will be crawling. Don't underestimate the importance of baroclinic enhancement of SNE hurricanes. With the slow movement and no powerful phase we will see this weaken a little more quickly than most big hurricanes we remember. I still don't think it's going to move as slowly as the Euro has it. Not hauling..but not moving 10 mph either. I'd bet it gets in here by Sunday in whatever form it ends up taking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like the 00z Euro came E a tad overnight. Interesting that the models have been pretty steadfast for the past couple days bringing Irene up into the area. GGEM have been the furthest E but looks to be wobbling back and forth. Looking for Irene to become a CAT 3 sometime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS looking more likely, but I'm getting nervous with the eastward trend (yes, there has been an eastward trend all along) and we get a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Anyone remember what the euro ensembles were like this far out with bill and Earl? I think it's hard to go against those given they are all clustered 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Anyone remember what the euro ensembles were like this far out with bill and Earl? I think it's hard to go against those given they are all clustered 5 days out Manchester nh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Manchester nh. Lol probably then they shifted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In this forecast range, models look infinitely better for SNE than Earl or Bill, and frankly for any storm since probably Floyd/or Edouard. Ingestion of new data overnight led to an incredibly clearer forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 In this forecast range, models look infinitely better for SNE than Earl or Bill, and frankly for any storm since probably Floyd/or Edouard. Ingestion of new data overnight led to an incredibly clearer forecast track. I think the %'s have increased in the overnight. This is certainly not the text book setup being discussed but not out of the realm. Very intriguing to watch unfold. 8am intermediate advisory will be out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 06 HWRF is a pretty big shift east from 00z Shift east with gfdl too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If the eye goes over the cape what are we looking at for those west of the cape? Primarily heavy heavy rain? I remember when Bob slammed the Cape. I'm originally from Southborough (25 miles west of Boston), and I recall strong gusty winds with heavy downpours and one very loud crack of lightning. It was like being in an extended severe t-storm, but I doubt there were any hurricane force wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Except 1821 was hauling... this will be crawling. Don't underestimate the importance of baroclinic enhancement of SNE hurricanes. With the slow movement and no powerful phase we will see this weaken a little more quickly than most big hurricanes we remember. On 00z GFS, 12z Sun, Irene was due east of ORF. On the 06z run at the same time the storm is about 50 miles SE of Montauk. An even more drastic shift from 18z run, 12z Sun, which only had Irene making landfall down in Wilmington. Models are definitely starting to speed this up, and I expect that will probably continue. Even in such an unusual situation, I'd be surprised if it truly crawled up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 here's my blog post from this AM... with my thoughts... http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/23/another-year-another-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I kinda think its funny that were referencing 1821 lol.. 200 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 00z GFS, 12z Sun, Irene was due east of ORF. On the 06z run at the same time the storm is about 50 miles SE of Montauk. An even more drastic shift from 18z run, 12z Sun, which only had Irene making landfall down in Wilmington. Models are definitely starting to speed this up, and I expect that will probably continue. Even in such an unusual situation, I'd be surprised if it truly crawled up the coast. Yes, you're probably right and that probably increases the threat for a scrape to the east. I actually think that is the most likely scenario... a landfall in E NC and then a brush by SNE. The second most likely scenario is a landfall to the west and an inside runner. Least likely is the thread the needle scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFDL just jumped way E. Now every models is to the east of the NC/SC border. What an impressive convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wagons east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wagons east? Certainly looks that way down S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Just got up and looked at everything. Very impressive hit if the models held ground but they have been trending east now for some time. I have learned over and over "the trend is your friend". I have seen nothing to stop the east trend yet so I would be very leary of that. If the trend starts to lock at 12Z then I would be more excited. We are still 5 days out. I do have a question about predessor rain events with hurricanes. Are they more apt to form with a slow moving system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.