ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS is going to be a huge hit. Though again, it means very little at this stage. Purely for entertainment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS is going to be a huge hit. Though again, it means very little at this stage. Purely for entertainment purposes. Sure, but not bad considering the about of new data ingested this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tip going for a long island express! 00z GFS just about agrees with him too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A Narragansett Bay nailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS is going to be a huge hit. Though again, it means very little at this stage. Purely for entertainment purposes. Slow moving storm means a ton of heavy rain and high winds for this area. If that happened, it would be like some of our biggest noreasters around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Right up my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well this is fun to look at. What is really amazing to me is how slow the system as a whole is moving once it reaches the Carolinas. Takes 36 hours to go from Outer Banks to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Right up my fanny. It goes west of you...probably over RI and through W suburbs of BOS. Its a bad track for Narragansett Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It goes west of you...probably over RI and through W suburbs of BOS. Its a bad track for Narragansett Bay. How strong does it look like on that model run when it gets up at our lat? The slow movement wont help, the water temps have already dropped from their midsummer highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 It goes west of you...probably over RI and through W suburbs of BOS. Its a bad track for Narragansett Bay. Eastern edge of storm would rape se ma. Gannestt bay would have surge issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eastern edge of storm would rape se ma. Gannestt bay would have surge issues. Yes a track like that maximizes winds for PVD for to your area and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What we can take away from today's model runs: The GFS has demonstrated multiple ways in which Irene can make it up the coast and make landfall in New England, with varying intensities of the three troughs that interact with it over the next 6 days. Definitely something to keep in mind. The MAIN point is that the westerlies are at anomalously high latitude. So Irene can gain more latitude before recurving east. We also do see a nearly classic pattern shift from a -NAO Greenland block to a North Atlantic ridge. Both of these characteristics were what I was looking at about a month ago when I called for a hot end to August ... obviously a bust, but for the same reasons, now it could be a wet end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What we can take away from today's model runs: The GFS has demonstrated multiple ways in which Irene can make it up the coast and make landfall in New England, with varying intensities of the three troughs that interact with it over the next 6 days. Definitely something to keep in mind. The MAIN point is that the westerlies are at anomalously high latitude. So Irene can gain more latitude before recurving east. We also do see a nearly classic pattern shift from a -NAO Greenland block to a North Atlantic ridge. Both of these characteristics were what I was looking at about a month ago when I called for a hot end to August ... obviously a bust, but for the same reasons, now it could be a wet end. The lack of a huge trough to our west has me believing this won't be that intense IF it does actually hit us. But this also increases the flooding threat quite a bit IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The lack of a huge trough to our west has me believing this won't be that intense IF it does actually hit us. But this also increases the flooding threat quite a bit IMHO. Just out of curiousity why would a lack of a trough affect intensity? Take too long to arrive or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The lack of a huge trough to our west has me believing this won't be that intense IF it does actually hit us. But this also increases the flooding threat quite a bit IMHO. Especially if it hugs the coast that close, it's sitting over upwelling waters, far from supporting a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Just out of curiousity why would a lack of a trough affect intensity? Take too long to arrive or something? Yes. If it crawls up the coast, it loses its punch quite quickly...and you also do not have the forward speed in the right semi-circle to make up for the decreasing intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes. If it crawls up the coast, it loses its punch quite quickly...and you also do not have the forward speed in the right semi-circle to make up for the decreasing intensity. So we basically need (to get a TS+ in NE) a brushing hit in nc or sc and then it to get picked up and get on its horse quickly up here? Also can a storm intensify to the point where it starts to fuel its own foward progress or is it all external forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes. If it crawls up the coast, it loses its punch quite quickly...and you also do not have the forward speed in the right semi-circle to make up for the decreasing intensity. You would though, hypothetically, still maintain the storm surge, with a high tide this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You would though, hypothetically, still maintain the storm surge, with a high tide this weekend. There would still be plenty of issues for sure. In fact, even at a slow speed, it can still make landfall as a cat 1 with not too much problem so there is obviously some concern over a perfect track...but a high speed moving cat2/3 is obviously way more devastating in the eastern semi-circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 fascinating overnight model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow..this is starting to really get exciting. Starting to get that feeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 JB chucking still BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Florida spared direct hit.No changes Carolinas north. Floydian path.. cat 3-4 in NC to cat 1-2New England. Multi billion dollar hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 still don't have the quintessential NE hurricane pattern in place with that 5h expressway pointed right at us...but also can't ignore all the guidance at this point. feeling like at least some kind of meaningful effects will be felt. an entertaining period of weather-watching upcoming, regardless. beats temperature debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 still don't have the quintessential NE hurricane pattern in place with that 5h expressway pointed right at us...but also can't ignore all the guidance at this point. feeling like at least some kind of meaningful effects will be felt. an entertaining period of weather-watching upcoming, regardless. beats temperature debates. You have to think the Euro's bizarre option of not moving it NE and instead moving due north won't verify. I have a hard time seeing it not moving east of north once it gets up into Virginia..but who knows. I'd think a Euro/GFS combo might be a better solution. Euro ensembles similiar to the op??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Seeing the hurricane of 1821 thrown out quite a bit in various circles. I know SNE took a good hit from that, but does anyone have any specific details on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Have to like where we are at.. gfs slams the cape.. euro slams NYC.. sne right in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You have to think the Euro's bizarre option of not moving it NE and instead moving due north won't verify. I have a hard time seeing it not moving east of north once it gets up into Virginia..but who knows. I'd think a Euro/GFS combo might be a better solution. Euro ensembles similiar to the op??? yeah pretty close...but actually east and closer to the op GFS later in the run. though i can't see the individual members so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Have to like where we are at.. gfs slams the cape.. euro slams NYC.. sne right in the middle If the eye goes over the cape what are we looking at for those west of the cape? Primarily heavy heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 fascinating overnight model runs. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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