CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Something that has bothered me today for impact is the forward speed, it is still very possible this gets picked up and shunted. Yeah a crawl from NC doesn't scream big hit to me lol. Things can definitely change... and who knows if the thing is over HSE moving at 15 knots with good conditions for strengthening overhead I think we can still get hit. With such a small sample size of SNE hurricanes... never say never for a given synoptic setup... especially in late August when SSTs are at their peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah a crawl from NC doesn't scream big hit to me lol. Things can definitely change... and who knows if the thing is over HSE moving at 15 knots with good conditions for strengthening overhead I think we can still get hit. With such a small sample size of SNE hurricanes... never say never for a given synoptic setup... especially in late August when SSTs are at their peak. I just don't really see how SNE gets a big hit out of this unless the trough digs more. But if you're saying there is a chance and you're a met, I'll believe you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 haven't ventured into the main tropical thread...sure it's been posted 1000x times there - but funny that if you use the hurricane database and plot a storm with irene's current coordinates...you get one storm into New England since 1930...only bertha. LOL. and out of 32 systems, looks like only 8 hit the U.S. I think the plots were shown and someone chimed in how without knowing the Synoptics they are meaningless. Such class shown by some in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensembles still hitting SNE. Looks like more of those members are east as opposed to earlier...It'll be interesting to see if the next operational run shifts east as well. Still have lots of time for more shifts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Would you give up a CAT 2 cane smashing into CT for a 40" winter this year? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That GFS ens mean track represents the apex of a pants tent for me...perfect track for mby......but I hate seeing that because it would end up further east were that to pan out. I'll stick w NC for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 OTS, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think the plots were shown and someone chimed in how without knowing the Synoptics they are meaningless. Such class shown by some in there. The main threads suck....there are so many posters now that folks have become overbearing....I was called out for thanking a guy for posting his obs from St. Croix.....called it "crap". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This storm will drive the media into a new level, if this hits the East Coast. The media is totally going to be out of control. This will only add to the "year of extremes" theme that has been going on. It's going to be something else. Yeah, TWC has been itching for a chance to cover a legitimate storm. I guess this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 g2g at Blizz's cape house this weekend? Yea, but it's only a good idea for folks who can take jokes to show....unlike you, who defriended me on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The main threads suck....there are so many posters now that folks have become overbearing....I was called out for thanking a guy for posting his obs from St. Croix.....called it "crap". Well, there is a lot of good info in there, and I won't post there (sheesh, even had some dude bringing up a post I made in here in the Irene banter thread...get a life dude), but they are ready to pounce on seemingly innocent stuff. Anyhoo... an eastern NC track could still be "good" for SNE (not sure I want it to make landfall anywhere... different argument) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea, but it's only a good idea for folks who can take jokes to show....unlike you, who defriended me on FB. you were mean to me at the conference...i wasn't in the mood to put up with your humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 haven't ventured into the main tropical thread...sure it's been posted 1000x times there - but funny that if you use the hurricane database and plot a storm with irene's current coordinates...you get one storm into New England since 1930...only bertha. LOL. and out of 32 systems, looks like only 8 hit the U.S. wait...just did that again...not even true. it's some pos Doria in 1971. Bertha wasn't quite close enough to the current position of Irene to make the cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 you were mean to me at the conference...i wasn't in the mood to put up with your humor Just make fun of his 1996 calendar, and it will be even... My mom is on the coast of S RI (across the street from the Atlantic)... I hope this makes no one unhappy if I ask for her to stay dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I learned of the media hype from this college kid's status update on FB...I don't even bother with the news or much TV for that matter......he made an update something to the effect of "so I guess me may get raped by a hurricane this wknd".....and when I commented, he went on to state that his mother relayed to him that ch 7 was flipping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Several posters (maybe Tip was the first I read? Or maybe even DT? Yikes!) mentioned data from the Pacific has not yet come in to get much setup for a trough on the models... How long before that gets into the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 you were mean to me at the conference...i wasn't in the mood to put up with your humor I barely even spoke to you, but moving right along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 wait...just did that again...not even true. it's some pos Doria in 1971. Bertha wasn't quite close enough to the current position of Irene to make the cut. Doria was the 4th biggest weather related power outage in ct/w mass since 1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Doria was the 4th biggest weather related power outage in ct/w mass since 1970 really?? at 50 knots? LOL. edit: not even 50...officially 45 over NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 really?? at 50 knots? LOL. Yeah must have been a legit 50kts not a Floyd or Bertha 50 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah must have been a legit 50kts not a Floyd or Bertha 50 kts yeah must have been. it made landfall in the carolinas as a rather mediocre TS too. nothing amazing. that's interesting though - where did you get those numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 really?? at 50 knots? LOL. edit: not even 50...officially 45 over NYC area. That track looks awfully similar to NHC's for Irene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That track looks awfully similar to NHC's for Irene... dates are actually pretty close too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Bertha, Doria, and Floyd all seem like decent track comparisons at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 dates are actually pretty close too Just about half the strength...lol What is the site people are using to generate tracks of all storms from a point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yeah must have been. it made landfall in the carolinas as a rather mediocre TS too. nothing amazing. that's interesting though - where did you get those numbers? Meant 4th largest tropical outage. Floyd, Bertha, and the rest didn't make the list. Still 200k in 1971 would probably be doubled today. http://www.cl-p.com/stormcenter/stormresponse.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Bertha, Doria, and Floyd all seem like decent track comparisons at this juncture. Just read Floyd dropped 15-20 inches of rain in NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But by that time, the storm is becoming extra-tropical, no? Phasing with mid-latitude systems can definitely enhance the conditions (I agree), but I was assuming he was talking about purely tropical processes. I don't think any "tropical" system doing the Long Island express routine is purely tropical by the time it gets to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm amazed at the amount of hype (particularly in the national media) right now for New England impacts. A true SNE hurricane is going to be really hard to get up here in this setup without much of a big/digging trough to our west. I could see a strong/damaging tropical storm with a coastal hugger moving NNE if things worked out perfectly. A Doria or a Belle kind of setup? It's a business, and there are a lot of wealthy viewers who live in New England who buy expensive products and you want them to tune in. This is exaclty why TWC has referenced the East Coast of Florida so much up until this evening despite all evidence to the contrary...because there are a lot more wealthy viewers in Fort Lauderdale than there are in Wilmington, NC. MSNBC specifically targets the I95 corridor from DC to Boston...they don't care much about Fly Over Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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