CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 agree. it's pretty crazy given the time-frame we are talking about. there was a tweet from a major boston station earlier today that basically said (and i'm paraphrasing here cuz i don't remember exactly and don't feel like digging to find it) "hurricane irene strengthening, 3 computer models say it hits New England." now i know that is technically true, but c'mon that's a public disservice. LOL. i don't want to downplay it but it's so darn early. honestly...if it does something similar to the euro, that's really just a big ole rainstorm with some gusty winds. maybe some power outages etc and i'm sure the flood issues would be real and concerning but it wouldn't be a catastrophic combo of wind, rain, surge etc. we know it has to be *perfect* for this to be a truly *BIG* event. it can certainly be a fun storm and bring plenty of wind and rain with a number of different tracks but for this to really be The Big One it has to be just right. which, obviously, is why it hasn't happened in 20 years. LOL. Yeah we're not even near the 5 day cone yet... so we're talking about an eternity in hurricane time. I want to be clear that I think there is a chance of legit TS force winds and flood threats. The threat of hurricane force winds in SNE based on the current setup is very very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yes but a major isn't need for big impacts given the foot of rain we had last week and the high astro tides combined with the slow movement of the storm. By "major" impact I meant an actual hurricane. There is almost certainly a much high chance for signiifcant flooding and even wind damage/coastal flooding from TS force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea but it's fun to fantasize, it's when I see pros using absolutes, I shake my head. One thing that really bothers me is the denigration of others by supposed pros. Why would any pro use such demeanor to call out young kids just learning, they have all been there too. It's as if some are acting like AROD! KROD and the rest of the rods. There are a couple I have met in person who are the nicest people yet online they are complete know it all dickwads. oh i know it's all part of the fun...i'm just saying look big picture. LOL. we'll get a better handle once it enters the denser sounding grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Scott may come back from California single if he's online tracking a hurricane from 3000 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 By "major" impact I meant an actual hurricane. There is almost certainly a much high chance for signiifcant flooding and even wind damage/coastal flooding from TS force winds. yeah the rain threat is definitely real (wouldn't be much of a concern for me if it's going to be a problem for inland areas). especially if andy gets his PRE started nice and early which seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yeah the rain threat is definitely real (wouldn't be much of a concern for me if it's going to be a problem for inland areas). especially if andy gets his PRE started nice and early which seems possible. I can just see the posts from Kevin and the like when some places get 55 knot gusts and others 10" of rain and I get accused of downplaying. I think the serious hurricane threat is quite low... that's what I'm downplaying. Other (still) significant TS type impacts are certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This storm will drive the media into a new level, if this hits the East Coast. The media is totally going to be out of control. This will only add to the "year of extremes" theme that has been going on. It's going to be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Scott may come back from California single if he's online tracking a hurricane from 3000 miles away Any self respecting weenie would do the same, in their spare time..lol. Good thing women need lots of time to get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Any self respecting weenie would do the same, in their spare time..lol. Good thing women need lots of time to get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This storm will drive the media into a new level, if this hits the East Coast. The media is totally going to be out of control. This will only add to the "year of extremes" theme that has been going on. It's going to be something else. Bryan Norcross (ugh) said tonight on Nightly News that this may be the most significant northeast hurricane in decades (double ugh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 g2g at Blizz's cape house this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This storm will drive the media into a new level, if this hits the East Coast. The media is totally going to be out of control. This will only add to the "year of extremes" theme that has been going on. It's going to be something else. Unreal already for me, on Vaca and fielding emails from work about a major event Sat. Standard reply, it's Monday we will talk Thursday (go no go day) many replies back yea but so and so said..., read this on twitter etc. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Bryan Norcross (ugh) said tonight on Nightly News that this may be the most significant northeast hurricane in decades (double ugh) "Day three of #Irene... Folks, this one has potential for serious consequences - be ready up the East Coast." - Bill Read, director of NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think Irene will be retired... j/k don't get all worked up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Bryan Norcross (ugh) said tonight on Nightly News that this may be the most significant northeast hurricane in decades (double ugh) Even if this is a MH to hit the East Coast...it will add to the hysteria. We knew a year like this would happen. You know it's funny...ans EF5 tearing up a corn field is not extreme as nobody cares about it, but throw it into a populated area...and now all of the sudden it takes on a new life and climate change is talked about. Lets face it, more spotters + better technology = more reports. Period. In this day and age..every bolt of lightning is on youtube. This has been going on for years, and now the growing population centers are finally seeing the "oh f*ck" effects from it. We knew it would be a matter of time before this happened. And look at what happeend at IND. Finally an outflow boundary took down a shoddy constructed stage. But yet somehow this is also thrown into the category of "year of extremes". It drives me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what we "need" is the 18z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 "Day three of #Irene... Folks, this one has potential for serious consequences - be ready up the East Coast." - Bill Read, director of NHC Glad the NWS has jumped on the hype bandwagon... though I do agree that somewhere on the east coast this will have serious consequences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Any self respecting weenie would do the same, in their spare time..lol. Good thing women need lots of time to get ready. Waiting on a women... our life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 "Day three of #Irene... Folks, this one has potential for serious consequences - be ready up the East Coast." - Bill Read, director of NHC Bill Read tweets? GFS ensembles still hitting SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Glad the NWS has jumped on the hype bandwagon... though I do agree that somewhere on the east coast this will have serious consequences Yah I don't think his quote is terribly "hype". I think it's fair to prepare early for the first real EC hurricane threat since Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Glad the NWS has jumped on the hype bandwagon... though I do agree that somewhere on the east coast this will have serious consequences Yea agree but it's pretty good consensus now that it does hit the SE, gonna be tough to escape completely, although we have been there done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what we "need" is the 18z gefs. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This storm will drive the media into a new level, if this hits the East Coast. The media is totally going to be out of control. This will only add to the "year of extremes" theme that has been going on. It's going to be something else. LOL well, with the world being as large as it is, you'd have to assume it would always be a year for extremes for someone. I guess this is our year. I know this went on in the 70s too, but I was too young back then to remember it-- but from the early 90s on, I remember the media has always been harping on this sort of thing, starting with temp extremes and working its way into every other facet of weather. Anything for ratings, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what we "need" is the 18z gefs. Nice track-- on that kind of coastal hugger track it would probably be a low end Cat 1 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea agree but it's pretty good consensus now that it does hit the SE, gonna be tough to escape completely, although we have been there done this. I don't think an OTS solution is impossible though. The N/S oriented ridge in the W ATL looks good but it could look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I don't think an OTS solution is impossible though. The N/S oriented ridge in the W ATL looks good but it could look a lot better. Something that has bothered me today for impact is the forward speed, it is still very possible this gets picked up and shunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 haven't ventured into the main tropical thread...sure it's been posted 1000x times there - but funny that if you use the hurricane database and plot a storm with irene's current coordinates...you get one storm into New England since 1930...only bertha. LOL. and out of 32 systems, looks like only 8 hit the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Bryan Norcross (ugh) said tonight on Nightly News that this may be the most significant northeast hurricane in decades (double ugh) What do you do when your TV station does a lead-in talking about the most significant storm in decades? Lol... and here's Ryan with the details: "Well actually my producers just want you to stay glued to our channel, there's a good chance this isn't all that much of a storm. A few 40-50kt gusts on the coast and heavy rain; nothing we haven't seen before." How do you not feed the hysteria being an on-camera met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What do you do when your TV station does a lead-in talking about the most significant storm in decades? Lol... and here's Ryan with the details: "Well actually my producers just want you to stay glued to our channel, there's a good chance this isn't all that much of a storm. A few 40-50kt gusts on the coast and heavy rain; nothing we haven't seen before." How do you not feed the hysteria being an on-camera met? That's why I'm debbie downer. Seriously though it is up to the met to communicate with management, producers, anchors, etc and make sure everyone is on the same page. I can't dictate the "amount" of coverage but can help guide the tenor of that coverage. It makes the job challenging but also fun. A lot of time I will go in to the scripts and read all the anchor intros/stories over to make sure we're all saying the same thing. It becomes time intensive (and many mets just don't care enough to spend the time doing it) but I think it's very important. What the national media does... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm amazed at the amount of hype (particularly in the national media) right now for New England impacts. A true SNE hurricane is going to be really hard to get up here in this setup without much of a big/digging trough to our west. I could see a strong/damaging tropical storm with a coastal hugger moving NNE if things worked out perfectly. A Doria or a Belle kind of setup? I so strongly agree with you! Without a sharp trough to yank this up quickly New England will not experience hurricane condtions. Perhaps a hurricane gust at a few selected shoreline places but 99.9% of the population will not experience hurricane conditions. This will be a week of media hype and will just continue to add to the complatancy of hurricane awareness. One day we will experience a 38type storm again but this will not be one. Extremely heavy rain, yes, flooding yes, and some trees and down with power outages, yes but not widespread damage. It just does not occur with slowly moving systems that I have ever seen. The only caveat could be if Irene were to become a Cat 4 east of the Carolinas and just brush Hatteras and make landfall on the south coast then just east of the center could have some wind damage but the track would have to be perfect and not at all inland further down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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