Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Trees are plenty used to that kind of wind direction. However, areas like BOS that are on the nw side of a storm tracking 30-50 miles from the terminal are likely to get strongest winds on the nw side. Bob, Gloria, and Edna( which has BOS strongest wind gust recored) all did this on nw winds. SE wind storms do far more damage to trees than NW winds. That is def true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 SE wind storms do far more damage to trees than NW winds. That is def true With foliage this time of year? It is impossible to determine that. The only way that is true, is if your area to the nw is land locked, and you are exposed to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If that Euro track verified what kind of winds might we be looking at? MAybe gusts to 40 knots? Yeah I wouldn't think much more than that. Maybe some isolated higher numbers in the favored spots, but that track is very west and would really weaken the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 With foliage this time of year? It is impossible to determine that. The only way that is true, is if your area to the nw is land locked, and you are exposed to the se. Yes I've seen studies on it. The trees are far more used to stronger winds with some type of westerly component..That is why they generally lean that way..When you have a strong SE wind direction which they are not accustomed to it does more damage to the trees. Look at David as an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If that Euro track verified what kind of winds might we be looking at? MAybe gusts to 40 knots? The storm would be well shredded by then I'd think. Probably 20-30 kts with gusts no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't think much more than that. Maybe some isolated higher numbers in the favored spots, but that track is very west and would really weaken the system. Even though its the NAM, it kind of makes me nervous that the NAM and GFDL are that far West. I mean one model has a NE landfall, one they have a FL landfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Why? With a good track, this probably is a 100 year storm. We've had TDs drop over 10" of rain. RE: Tammy in the Remnants thread. Especially that this will be a slow crawler. NYC just saw 7" of rain with that last nor'easter. That was not a 100 year storm. We'll see. My guess is maximum 24 hour reports are in the 6" range or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes I've seen studies on it. The trees are far more used to stronger winds with some type of westerly component..That is why they generally lean that way..When you have a strong SE wind direction which they are not accustomed to it does more damage to the trees. Look at David as an example Many trees from BOS, and especially se of BOS have limbs that are on the ne side of trees. This is apparent in pine trees. I know what you mean, but when you have foliage and the trees are more even distributed in weight...not sure how the argument holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We'll see. My guess is maximum 24 hour reports are in the 6" range or less. Storm hasn't even hit the U.S. yet lol. My guess right now would be 24 hour reports with 1" or less as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Storm hasn't even hit the U.S. yet lol. My guess right now would be 24 hour reports with 1" or less as of now. Enjoy drizzle and stratus from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You can get intensification up to NC...we saw some 'canes reintensify off Hatteras or just south, but that zone has a limit to where it tops off. A cat 3 won't intensify any further near Hatteras, but a ragged cat 1 could get more organized there into cat 2. Once north of there though, its downhill. Careful there...some hurricanes have intensified (or maintained intensity) due to interaction with vigorous upper troughs etc. north of there. Hazel 1954 is certainly such an example, and the 1938 hurricane may be another. This is not to say we should expect this to occur with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Enjoy drizzle and stratus from this. Enjoy the Sun! And grapes too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Careful there...some hurricanes have intensified (or maintained intensity) due to interaction with vigorous upper troughs etc. north of there. Hazel 1954 is certainly such an example, and the 1938 hurricane may be another. This is not to say we should expect this to occur with Irene. But by that time, the storm is becoming extra-tropical, no? Phasing with mid-latitude systems can definitely enhance the conditions (I agree), but I was assuming he was talking about purely tropical processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Enjoy the Sun! And grapes too! People need to remember how the tropical dynamical models have schooled the globals at our latitude. Ask Ekster how Bill and Earl worked out. Globals were too far west. I'm not saying this is the case for that, but man when these sniff the westerlies....they move east quicker than a dryslot racing towards Kevin, in a SWFE. The tropical models are not out that far yet, but just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But by that time, the storm is becoming extra-tropical, no? Phasing with mid-latitude systems can definitely enhance the conditions (I agree), but I was assuming he was talking about purely tropical processes. Yeah... I meant just from water temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But by that time, the storm is becoming extra-tropical, no? Phasing with mid-latitude systems can definitely enhance the conditions (I agree), but I was assuming he was talking about purely tropical processes. It also didn't have too much influence on the western side of the storm. I think that's more for the eastern side, and also limited to the western side, close to the center of low pressure. Noel was really the one true storm that had strong winds within 50 miles nw of the center. Edouard has good winds in se mass, but after it moved east of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Many trees from BOS, and especially se of BOS have limbs that are on the ne side of trees. This is apparent in pine trees. I know what you mean, but when you have foliage and the trees are more even distributed in weight...not sure how the argument holds. I thought he was referring to the root systems and how they tend to favor the prevailing windward side, but I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes for most of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I thought he was referring to the root systems and how they tend to favor the prevailing windward side, but I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes for most of our region. I always felt root systems in the interior weren't all that different from one side to the other, but I'm not a botanist. I do know what he means by trees more exposed to nw winds, but I wonder if the frequency and intensity of those events has any effect at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't think much more than that. Maybe some isolated higher numbers in the favored spots, but that track is very west and would really weaken the system. Will, I saw one of the Mets in the SE forum talking about a possible Bertha (1996) type of track, which was from Wilmington NC to JFK Airport to Bridgeport, CT ... that was a 115 mph type major at one point also, and by the time it got up to JFK (the center went right over the airport!) it had sustained winds of around 65 mph and we had hurricane force gusts up here..... is that the kind of wind speed you are thinking we might get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It also didn't have too much influence on the western side of the storm. I think that's more for the eastern side, and also limited to the western side, close to the center of low pressure. Noel was really the one true storm that had strong winds within 50 miles nw of the center. Edouard has good winds in se mass, but after it moved east of SNE. As you have mentioned before, for winds, experience with Gloria, Bob, Floyd, etc., have shown us that the heaviest rains occur about 100-150 miles west of the center track up here, but of course the most damaging winds are near and to the east of the center. With the aforementioned Bertha, the center tracked just west of my house, but the heaviest rains were in the Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The run to run microanalysis of the evolution of the 5h flow is going to kill people. Lol. These things are so fickle. We've learned - well most of us - not to do this at day 6 in the winter...yet it's probably safer to do it in winter than with a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Will, I saw one of the Mets in the SE forum talking about a possible Bertha (1996) type of track, which was from Wilmington NC to JFK Airport to Bridgeport, CT ... that was a 115 mph type major at one point also, and by the time it got up to JFK (the center went right over the airport!) it had sustained winds of around 65 mph and we had hurricane force gusts up here..... is that the kind of wind speed you are thinking we might get? Bertha's track was considerably east of what the Euro showed. If we got another Bertha track, then I'd expect it to be pretty high impact because this storm could def be stronger than Bertha but that is a lot of speculation at this point on both fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm amazed at the amount of hype (particularly in the national media) right now for New England impacts. A true SNE hurricane is going to be really hard to get up here in this setup without much of a big/digging trough to our west. I could see a strong/damaging tropical storm with a coastal hugger moving NNE if things worked out perfectly. A Doria or a Belle kind of setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Why is the next recon plane going at a higher altitude? Safety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The weather channel made mention of there being 100mph without an eye to this hurricane. What is the significance of this? Is it expected that when the eye develops the winds will increase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm amazed at the amount of hype (particularly in the national media) right now for New England impacts. A true SNE hurricane is going to be really hard to get up here in this setup without much of a big/digging trough to our west. I could see a strong/damaging tropical storm with a coastal hugger moving NNE if things worked out perfectly. A Doria or a Belle kind of setup? Belle was actually a Cat 1 hurricane though, and had stronger effects for us than what Bertha did. It went right over Jones Beach. I think many would like that, without having to deal with all the dangers of a major lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The run to run microanalysis of the evolution of the 5h flow is going to kill people. Lol. These things are so fickle. We've learned - well most of us - not to do this at day 6 in the winter...yet it's probably safer to do it in winter than with a TC Yea but it's fun to fantasize, it's when I see pros using absolutes, I shake my head. One thing that really bothers me is the denigration of others by supposed pros. Why would any pro use such demeanor to call out young kids just learning, they have all been there too. It's as if some are acting like AROD! KROD and the rest of the rods. There are a couple I have met in person who are the nicest people yet online they are complete know it all dickwads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Belle was actually a Cat 1 hurricane though, and had stronger effects for us than what Bertha did. It went right over Jones Beach. I think many would like that, without having to deal with all the dangers of a major lol. Yeah for most places... Belle was a solid tropical storm. A very small area on the beach in LI may have had cat 1 winds but that's just about it. I think it's important to watch the synoptic evolution but at this point the signs for a "major" hit aren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm amazed at the amount of hype (particularly in the national media) right now for New England impacts. A true SNE hurricane is going to be really hard to get up here in this setup without much of a big/digging trough to our west. I could see a strong/damaging tropical storm with a coastal hugger moving NNE if things worked out perfectly. A Doria or a Belle kind of setup? agree. it's pretty crazy given the time-frame we are talking about. there was a tweet from a major boston station earlier today that basically said (and i'm paraphrasing here cuz i don't remember exactly and don't feel like digging to find it) "hurricane irene strengthening, 3 computer models say it hits New England." now i know that is technically true, but c'mon that's a public disservice. LOL. i don't want to downplay it but it's so darn early. honestly...if it does something similar to the euro, that's really just a big ole rainstorm with some gusty winds. maybe some power outages etc and i'm sure the flood issues would be real and concerning but it wouldn't be a catastrophic combo of wind, rain, surge etc. we know it has to be *perfect* for this to be a truly *BIG* event. it can certainly be a fun storm and bring plenty of wind and rain with a number of different tracks but for this to really be The Big One it has to be just right. which, obviously, is why it hasn't happened in 20 years. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah for most places... Belle was a solid tropical storm. A very small area on the beach in LI may have had cat 1 winds but that's just about it. I think it's important to watch the synoptic evolution but at this point the signs for a "major" hit aren't there. yes but a major isn't need for big impacts given the foot of rain we had last week and the high astro tides combined with the slow movement of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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