Hurricane Irene

[MarkO]

Gloria never really made landfall (save the outer banks) before New England. With the GFS track, I'd think it's core would be destroyed especially being slower. Maybe hold onto cat 1, but I'm thinking more likely TS.

[RobertSul]

Aren't surface sea temperatures in the Atlantic currently above normal?

[CapturedNature]

Gloria never really made landfall (save the outer banks) before New England. With the GFS track, I'd think it's core would be destroyed especially being slower. Maybe hold onto cat 1, but I'm thinking more likely TS.

Not according to the HPC.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Another thing that could be an issue (here, Carolinas, wherever) is large amounts of rain loosening the rioot systems of trees. Soggy ground can cause toppling even moderate winds.

[snowNH]

Gloria never really made landfall (save the outer banks) before New England. With the GFS track, I'd think it's core would be destroyed especially being slower. Maybe hold onto cat 1, but I'm thinking more likely TS.

exactly, that is why we want a scrape of HAT then have the trough dig more to shoot this north. We need a miracle track. For rain AND wind

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gloria hit Hatteras....it's Bob that stayed just offshore.

[ORH_wxman]

Another thing that could be an issue (here, Carolinas, wherever) is large amounts of rain loosening the rioot systems of trees. Soggy ground can cause toppling even moderate winds.

Flooding I think is the most likely concern but if we get a combo of flooding rain and even solid TS strength winds, that would cause a ton of problems. We see TS strength winds all the time in the winter, but this would be with full foliage still on the trees and with soggy ground. That's why tree damage is a lot worse in TCs here than typical winter storms minus huge ice storms.

[snowNH]

Flooding I think is the most likely concern but if we get a combo of flooding rain and even solid TS strength winds, that would cause a ton of problems. We see TS strength winds all the time in the winter, but this would be with full foliage still on the trees and with soggy ground. That's why tree damage is a lot worse in TCs here than typical winter storms minus huge ice storms.

Will in the recent TCs that have threatened NE, like Bill and Earl, didn't both tend to trend east at the 24-36 out WRT the models?

Also, Floyd dropped like 10 inches of rain on NE. how fast did that move in comparison to what these models are showing?

[ORH_wxman]

Will in the recent TCs that have threatened NE, like Bill and Earl, didn't both tend to trend east at the 24-36 out WRT the models?

Almost all of our TCs trend E from about 48 hours out.

[MarkO]

Not according to the HPC.

" Gloria assumed a more northward

track, and passed over the Outer Banks of North Carolina early on the 27th. Accelerating

rapidly, Gloria made a second landfall on the afternoon of the 27th on western Long Island"

In other words, the eye never really passed over land until landfall on Long Island. Unless you're arguing the point Long Island deteriorated the storm before she made landfall in CT?

Regardless, my point was the GFS track would destroy the eye. SST's are arguably warmer than during Gloria, but you can't count on any intensification over the Del-Mar-Va. What we need for the GFS track to produce wind is forward speed and this one really doesn't have it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm fine with either scenario....a strong cat 3 in the Carolinas, or a cat 2 up here.

What a don't wan't is a minimal cat 3 down there.......BUT we have to remember that even with the usual pre LF deintensification, the surge is likely to be comensurate with the intensity the day prior to landfall because this will be such a large system. The damage will have been done by the time it weakens, relative to surge.....that massive circulation will begin compiling water onto the continental shelf a good day before lf.

[40/70 Benchmark]

" Gloria assumed a more northward

track, and passed over the Outer Banks of North Carolina early on the 27th. Accelerating

rapidly, Gloria made a second landfall on the afternoon of the 27th on western Long Island"

In other words, the eye never really passed over land until landfall on Long Island. Unless you're arguing the point Long Island deteriorated the storm before she made landfall in CT?

Regardless, my point was the GFS track would destroy the eye. SST's are arguably warmer than during Gloria, but you can't count on any intensification over the Del-Mar-Va. What we need for the GFS track to produce wind is forward speed and this one really doesn't have it.

SSTs are usually the least of a storm's concerns as it enters the mid latitudes....that element is overrated.

[ROOSTA]

http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

Don't know if anyone has this link.

Great, more data, websites...D'OH

[snowNH]

Either way, I think its safe to say that some part of NE will have a significant impact from Irene, whether its 12" of rain in Burlington and wind and rain in SNE, or 12" of rain on the cape.

gonna be a long, roller coaster ride of a week.

Like Will said, each TC threat has trended east over the past couple years about 48 hours out. I want this thing going through NYC 48 hours out.

[mattmfm]

Almost all of our TCs trend E from about 48 hours out.

this.

[MarkO]

SSTs are usually the least of a storm's concerns as it enters the mid latitudes....that element is overrated.

Agreed. I was squashing any hopes of re-intensification. It won't happen. So unless she takes a track like Gloria or east, I doubt we'll be looking at even a cat 2. Cat 1 or TS, at least based on the current GFS track, 12 hour looked more like Gloria.

I DO think it's more likely a landfall over the Carolina's could be Cat 3 with maybe a slight chance (15-25%) cat 4.

[snowNH]

I'm fine with either scenario....a strong cat 3 in the Carolinas, or a cat 2 up here.

What a don't wan't is a minimal cat 3 down there.......BUT we have to remember that even with the usual pre LF deintensification, the surge is likely to be comensurate with the intensity the day prior to landfall because this will be such a large system. The damage will have been done by the time it weakens, relative to surge.....that massive circulation will begin compiling water onto the continental shelf a good day before lf.

Would you give up a CAT 2 cane smashing into CT for a 40" winter this year?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Agreed. I was squashing any hopes of re-intensification. It won't happen. So unless she takes a track like Gloria or east, I doubt we'll be looking at even a cat 2. Cat 1 or TS, at least based on the current GFS track, 12 hour looked more like Gloria.

I DO think it's more likely a landfall over the Carolina's could be Cat 3 with maybe a slight chance (15-25%) cat 4.

At what latitude does reintensification get killed? Must be south of Georgia or so...

[MarkO]

Either way, I think its safe to say that some part of NE will have a significant impact from Irene, whether its 12" of rain in Burlington and wind and rain in SNE, or 12" of rain on the cape.

gonna be a long, roller coaster ride of a week.

Like Will said, each TC threat has trended east over the past couple years about 48 hours out. I want this thing going through NYC 48 hours out.

I doubt anyone in NE gets anywhere near a foot of rain. 100 year storm is about 7.5"

[ORH_wxman]

At what latitude does reintensification get killed? Must be south of Georgia or so...

You can get intensification up to NC...we saw some 'canes reintensify off Hatteras or just south, but that zone has a limit to where it tops off. A cat 3 won't intensify any further near Hatteras, but a ragged cat 1 could get more organized there into cat 2. Once north of there though, its downhill.

[MarkO]

At what latitude does reintensification get killed? Must be south of Georgia or so...

I've always thought it was SST's below 26C. So prolly the Carolina's.

[CoastalWx]

this.

Bob Earl, Bill...you name it...we have learned this lesson.

[SnowMan]

Either way, I think its safe to say that some part of NE will have a significant impact from Irene, whether its 12" of rain in Burlington and wind and rain in SNE, or 12" of rain on the cape.

gonna be a long, roller coaster ride of a week.

Like Will said, each TC threat has trended east over the past couple years about 48 hours out. I want this thing going through NYC 48 hours out.

If it trends east from there wont it put you only on the rain side versus wind?

[Damage In Tolland]

Flooding I think is the most likely concern but if we get a combo of flooding rain and even solid TS strength winds, that would cause a ton of problems. We see TS strength winds all the time in the winter, but this would be with full foliage still on the trees and with soggy ground. That's why tree damage is a lot worse in TCs here than typical winter storms minus huge ice storms.

Also the fact that if it were to cut west of us..SE winds do far more damage than NW winds since the trees are not used to that kind of wind from that direction..Most folks don't realize that

[ORH_wxman]

Also the fact that if it were to cut west of us..SE winds do far more damage than NW winds since the trees are not used to that kind of wind from that direction..Most folks don't realize that

We'd probably get higher winds anyway if it just went barely W of us up through W New England...but if its over land for half of that journey, then its a moot point anyway since it will be weak enough by then for the wind damage to be trivial.

The wind threat (as it looks now) would be highest in eastern areas because the storm is likely to be hooking E by the time it gets to us. This is not the same as saying that's where I'd guess the storm tracks...just where the highest wind threat would be due to the increasing longitude hook as it nears us...so a track too far west would put this well over land for a long time and make the wind less. A track more over water is only likely to hit E SNE.

At least as of now. If we somehow get a much deeper looking trough that might cause this to run more due north when its near us rather than hooking east, then the ballgame changes a lot.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Also the fact that if it were to cut west of us..SE winds do far more damage than NW winds since the trees are not used to that kind of wind from that direction..Most folks don't realize that

Really? Where did you read that? Not doubting you, just didn't know it mattered

[snowNH]

I doubt anyone in NE gets anywhere near a foot of rain. 100 year storm is about 7.5"

Why? With a good track, this probably is a 100 year storm. We've had TDs drop over 10" of rain. RE: Tammy in the Remnants thread. Especially that this will be a slow crawler.

NYC just saw 7" of rain with that last nor'easter. That was not a 100 year storm.

[NorEaster27]

Why? With a good track, this probably is a 100 year storm. We've had TDs drop over 10" of rain. RE: Tammy in the Remnants thread. Especially that this will be a slow crawler.

NYC just saw 7" of rain with that last nor'easter. That was not a 100 year storm.

parts of long island saw 11 inches of rain last sunday.

[CoastalWx]

Really? Where did you read that? Not doubting you, just didn't know it mattered

Trees are plenty used to that kind of wind direction.

However, areas like BOS that are on the nw side of a storm tracking 30-50 miles from the terminal are likely to get strongest winds on the nw side. Bob, Gloria, and Edna( which has BOS strongest wind gust recored) all did this on nw winds.

[Damage In Tolland]

We'd probably get higher winds anyway if it just went barely W of us up through W New England...but if its over land for half of that journey, then its a moot point anyway since it will be weak enough by then for the wind damage to be trivial.

The wind threat (as it looks now) would be highest in eastern areas because the storm is likely to be hooking E by the time it gets to us. This is not the same as saying that's where I'd guess the storm tracks...just where the highest wind threat would be due to the increasing longitude hook as it nears us...so a track too far west would put this well over land for a long time and make the wind less. A track more over water is only likely to hit E SNE.

At least as of now. If we somehow get a much deeper looking trough that might cause this to run more due north when its near us rather than hooking east, then the ballgame changes a lot.

If that Euro track verified what kind of winds might we be looking at? MAybe gusts to 40 knots?