SnowMan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Does Matt Noyes do is live-stream videos during storms like this or only during the winter? Likely thursday before the make a big deal about anything up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 AWT with regards to how slow the Euro was 12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 AWT with regards to how slow the Euro was I think you're misreading Matt's post. The Euro ensembles are all over the place and a good number are even slower than the op with the storm stalling off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 AWT with regards to how slow the Euro was Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think you're misreading Matt's post. The Euro ensembles are all over the place and a good number are even slower than the op with the storm stalling off the SE coast. Yeah dont think it was related to euro op really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Euro ensembles have 3 camps basically. 1) Stall off the SE coast. Ridge builds in... weakness isn't enough to pull Irene north into the Carolinas. Certainly possible. 2) NC/SC slow landfall. Weakness in ridge allow Irene to slowly move north like the op run shows. At this point one of the more likely scenarios like the op shows. Whether the storm meanders due north (like op) or meanders NE out into the ocean is up in the air. Either is possible IMO depending on s/w interaction and orientation of westerlies up here. 3) A faster acceleration up the coast with bigger weakness and more interaction with Plains trough that is able to dig enough. This is like the op GFS/GEFS but there are fewer euro ensemble members in this camp than the other 2 I think. This could be a SNE hurricane hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think you're misreading Matt's post. The Euro ensembles are all over the place and a good number are even slower than the op with the storm stalling off the SE coast. I took the "awry" part to mean he thinks the slow track up the coast was wrong when taking the ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I took the "awry" part to mean he thinks the slow track up the coast was wrong when taking the ens mean No... he means it as an unusual scenario... not necessarily wrong. We were talking on gchat about the euro ensembles earlier. In fact the euro ensembles bring in a whole new SE stall scenario that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No... he means it as an unusual scenario... not necessarily wrong. We were talking on gchat about the euro ensembles earlier. In fact the euro ensembles bring in a whole new SE stall scenario that is possible. Meaning it stalls in the SE and never affects us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Meaning it stalls in the SE and never affects us? Yeah stalls in the Atlantic south of NC. The spread in the euro ensembles is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah stalls in the Atlantic south of NC. The spread in the euro ensembles is amazing. Sounds like a decent cluster of them bring it north into SNE too. Let's ride that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Noyes chucks a few MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Potential Irene impact timeframe is Sunday for NewEng and Northeast, but Saturday for Central/Southern Mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can't believe some of the stuff being posted on twitter already. There are already calls for specific cities to prepare for damage. Wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can't believe some of the stuff being posted on twitter already. There are already calls for specific cities to prepare for damage. Wtf. @capecodweather.net ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can't believe some of the stuff being posted on twitter already. There are already calls for specific cities to prepare for damage. Wtf. Tolland? No school for weeks and weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 @capecodweather.net ? Lol...no not me...other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lol...no not me...other people. No I mean is that your name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Mention from BOX: THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHO THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED TREND...SPREAD STILL EXISTS IN REGARDSTO HURRICANE IRENE/S TRACK. SHOULD ANTICIPATE TO SEE INCREASINGCLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL RAINS STREAMING NWDSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TO BEGIN TO TURNOUT OF THE SE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTSFROM NHC/HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Mention from BOX: THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHO THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED TREND...SPREAD STILL EXISTS IN REGARDSTO HURRICANE IRENE/S TRACK. SHOULD ANTICIPATE TO SEE INCREASINGCLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL RAINS STREAMING NWDSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TO BEGIN TO TURNOUT OF THE SE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTSFROM NHC/HPC. Hmm... this will be interesting to watch (BOX mentions of Irene) as we move on. If... (3% "if") it were to get closer to looking like a hit, I wonder how they will word AFDs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Then there is this from BOX discussion: DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/222052.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No I mean is that your name? Oh haha capecodweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Then there is this from BOX discussion: DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/222052.shtml So they're saying we've got a chance?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Glad we have our sub forum, man there are some dickwad people with met tags in the general thread. I am amazed like Phil at the stuff coming out on twitter and elsewhere by trained pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I am pretty sure that over the years of my life there have been at least 25 Irenes ready to annihilate our entire area, Gloria was a good storm for some, Bob was tiny and was a RI EMA special only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 All the sand bags that Ginx filled, will blow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 All the sand bags that Ginx filled, will blow away. While you sit in Yosemite Fu. Ck in pissed that you missed a once in a lifetime storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Glad we have our sub forum, man there are some dickwad people with met tags in the general thread. I am amazed like Phil at the stuff coming out on twitter and elsewhere by trained pros. They have the degrees but no social skills... Speaking of mets, where has Will been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Good lord, it's amazing how much better our mods are in our little NE section than some of the other ones on this site. Funny someone else noticed this above. Weird, didn't even notice til I started typing and scrolled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 While you sit in Yosemite Fu. Ck in pissed that you missed a once in a lifetime storm At Napa with wine in hand, poolside. 18z tropicals look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I am pretty sure that over the years of my life there have been at least 25 Irenes ready to annihilate our entire area, Gloria was a good storm for some, Bob was tiny and was a RI EMA special only. When will you get excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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