CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 1:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully it at least eradicates Hatteras, first. Well I was only joking, but we know how they love to sniff the westerlies. I even made a joke about Earl a few days ago. If this hits HSE, than the impacts would likely be greater in parts of the area than what we saw with Earl, considering the storm will be stronger than Earl, and Earl never directly hit HSE. Will be interesting to see what the models do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 1:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully it at least eradicates Hatteras, first. Putting the trend aside... if the consensus models remained exactly as is... hugging the Delmarva that's about the only way we get our SNE hurricane in this setup. The 12z runs actually are good for the SNE hurricane... taking a stall or slow meandering inland over the Carolinas basically off the table. Now we know where the last several runs were so there's no reason to think the 18z and 00z runs won't shift the consensus models even further east. First thing to look for is the 12z globals. Their individual track isn't necessarily important but their trend from their previous runs is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:02 PM, CT Blizz said: Whose to say they are right? and are underestimating the strength of the ridge? We've seen wild swings west and east with this the last 2 days. I don't see anything right now that doesn't point to a ILM hit in NC..and then from there..who knows. No one is, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:00 PM, CT Rain said: No but it has been trending east. Nothing significant though. The GGEM game W, and the GFS has been somewhere in the middle. I'm not fully buying an OTS scenario just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:02 PM, CT Blizz said: Whose to say they are right? and are underestimating the strength of the ridge? We've seen wild swings west and east with this the last 2 days. I don't see anything right now that doesn't point to a ILM hit in NC..and then from there..who knows. The wild swing has almost exclusively been east. There's no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 1:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Earl FTW? possibly... Field goal sails wide right? Dolphins win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one is, yet. But we're seeing plenty of calls saying fish storm....or a scraper ... At this point that's as bad as folks seriously calling for a direct landfalling hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i still say miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 1:52 PM, CT Rain said: The shift east is still very apparent. I don't see any reason why this will stop trending east. Fine with me. 06z gfs was scary big for RA in the path BOS-PSM-PWM-AUG, predicting 8-9" the whole way (and 6" for CAR, which has been soaked at 250% of climo since 6/1.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: i still say miami Gulf or bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:03 PM, CT Rain said: The wild swing has almost exclusively been east. There's no denying that. There were some models last nite that took the thing into Florida.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CT Blizz said: But we're seeing plenty of calls saying fish storm....or a scraper ... At this point that's as bad as folks seriously calling for a direct landfalling hurricane A call at this point is just a guess and for fun on a wx board. There are a plethora of solutions on the table. I happen to think a scraper is most likely (which is what I thought yesterday morning even) but the other solutions are definitely still in play. Let's remember we're 5 days out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CT Blizz said: There were some models last nite that took the thing into Florida.. If you can't acknowledge the overwhelming and substantial trend east over the past 48 hours with the models then there is seriously no help for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CT Rain said: Gulf or bust? LOL. yep. no way this thing is going east of FL. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I hadn't even seen those models that Ryan posted. I was just thinking as a practical matter, we don't have a sharp enough trough to possibly pull this up as far as 42/70 if it only moves through Hatteras. I think the only way it severely impacts SNE would be through the coastal plain track where it cuts far enough west through NC that it can cross south eastern SNE on recurve. On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: i still say miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:05 PM, CT Blizz said: But we're seeing plenty of calls saying fish storm....or a scraper ... At this point that's as bad as folks seriously calling for a direct landfalling hurricane No way....99\100 it misses. lol Scooter and Kev, txt me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way....99\100 it misses. lol Scooter and Kev, txt me. Count more on Kevin. I won't be around too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, Logan11 said: I hadn't even seen those models that Ryan posted. I was just thinking as a practical matter, we don't have a sharp enough trough to possibly pull this up as far as 42/70 if it only moves through Hatteras. I think the only way it severely impacts SNE would be through the coastal plain track where it cuts far enough west through NC that it can cross south eastern SNE on recurve. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way....99\100 it misses. lol Scooter and Kev, luv me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way....99\100 it misses. lol Scooter and Kev, txt me. No you're too negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, CoastalWx said: FWIW. basically would need that to hold for the next 5 days for a solid hurricane hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 TVCN FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some of the baroclinic models are gonna want to treat this as if it wasn't purely tropical and draw it further west/north in an interaction as the next trough digs, but I believe that isn't reality so much and that it has to escape NNE and then NE after NC. So we need it to cross NC as far west as possible to have the most fun up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:13 PM, Ginx said: TVCN FTW? That's actually a tropical cyclone model, according to the dude on TWC. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:15 PM, Logan11 said: Some of the baroclinic models are gonna want to treat this as if it wasn't purely tropical and draw it further west/north in an interaction as the next trough digs, but I believe that isn't reality so much and that it has to escape NNE and then NE after NC. So we need it to cross NC as far west as possible to have the most fun up here. It doesn't have to escape, as tip mentioned if the trough is stronger then its an LI express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:10 PM, CoastalWx said: FWIW. Looks like more than half of these take it over eastern SNE....Personally, I'm hoping for a blend of the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said: For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. The thing that makes me wonder, is having a reliable global model be so far west. It sort of gives me pause, but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said: For now with limited time to analyze...I'd say close to ACK right now...maybe just se of ACK. I'll reserve the right change it later, but also feel that something like a BM track is possible for sure. Perfect track for MBY. Wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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