Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I've yet to see any good answer on any of the threads on this site that tells me WHY all the models have pressure so low at this latitude. They can't all have the same bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 fwiw, ill be home early from work tomorrow so i can do a euro pbp..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 fwiw, ill be home early from work tomorrow so i can do a euro pbp..... Your pbp is the best, I am looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Your pbp is the best, I am looking forward to it. thanks..hoping to do a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 thanks..hoping to do a lot this winter. I move to Hilton Head a week from today, so this is my last hoorah. I've always appreciated your pbp Tom. I will miss you and this forum. It's kinda boring down there weather-wise, but the thunderstorms on the coast are awesome beyond words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks sort of like another Gloria. Final track will likely have it 50-75 miles off the NJ coast. The saving grace is it's forward speed...looks to move in and out quickly. Granted beach erosion and minor-moderate damage us still likely, this could have been a lot worse. There seems to be little to no support for the Euro track verbatim attm. Definitely is the farthest west of all guidance.now if the Euro was in the middle of other guidance or had more support, then the NJ landfall would be justifiable possibility,but we shouldn't see it pan out as a direct NJ landfall. PerIgee new moon will be interesting for beach erosion and back bay flooding tho regardless. I still think we are dodging a bullet here and it could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I move to Hilton Head a week from today, so this is my last hoorah. I've always appreciated your pbp Tom. I will miss you and this forum. It's kinda boring down there weather-wise, but the thunderstorms on the coast are awesome beyond words. i was wondering why your thing said hilton head....congrats on the move...you should come up and visit during the winter for snowstorms if you have family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ill be down Sea Isle City with Soadforecaster sat night and sunday chasing this thing. Im in shock things are coming back west. Going to be one hell of a weekend. Anyone esle chasing in jersey be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 PerIgee new moon will be interesting for beach erosion and back bay flooding tho regardless. I still think we are dodging a bullet here and it could have been worse. I hope your right but the storm hasn't happened yet so we don't know how bad it is. The more I read the more i hope this thing misses lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z gfdl, west 18z hwrf It was bad enough that you guys saw all the snow since I left for FL after 40 years on the Jersey Shore back in Sept of 2009. BUT, this would take the take . Egads ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks sort of like another Gloria. Final track will likely have it 50-75 miles off the NJ coast. The saving grace is it's forward speed...looks to move in and out quickly. Granted beach erosion and minor-moderate damage us still likely, this could have been a lot woirse. There seems to be little to no support for the Euro track verbatim attm. Definitely is the farthest west of all guidance.now if the Euro was in the middle of othr guidance or had more support, then the NJ landfall would be justifiable possibility,but we shouldn't see it pan out as a direct nJ landfall. PerIgee new moon will be interesting for beach erosion and back bay flooding tho regardless. I still think we are dodging a bullet here and it could have been worse. I agree with your assessment of 50-75 off NJ. I'm closer to 50, but wobbling by Irene due to frictional effects are unknown. I also think somewhere 30-40 miles west of the Delaware will see a large dropoff in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i was wondering why your thing said hilton head....congrats on the move...you should come up and visit during the winter for snowstorms if you have family. Thanks. I will be back often. I still have to go into the CHQ office occasionally. I'll pick my visits based on the snow potential like Ray does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks sort of like another Gloria. Final track will likely have it 50-75 miles off the NJ coast. The saving grace is it's forward speed...looks to move in and out quickly. Granted beach erosion and minor-moderate damage us still likely, this could have been a lot woirse. There seems to be little to no support for the Euro track verbatim attm. Definitely is the farthest west of all guidance.now if the Euro was in the middle of othr guidance or had more support, then the NJ landfall would be justifiable possibility,but we shouldn't see it pan out as a direct nJ landfall. PerIgee new moon will be interesting for beach erosion and back bay flooding tho regardless. I still think we are dodging a bullet here and it could have been worse. You saying we dodged a bullet 3 days out, is just as bad as the crap that was being said in the NYC thread last night when it showed it going far east. Anything can still happen. It could come into Jersey, or it could even move back east again and miss wide right. 50-75 miles offshore, would do a hell of a lot of damage around here. Hurricane force winds stretch out 95 miles from the center, and Tropical Storm force winds stretch out to 230 miles. That's a hell of a lot of wind, on already saturated ground. Add on possibly 8-12 inches of rain like HPC shows? That's a hell of a lot of damage coming. And you do realize what Gloria did down here right? If we get another Gloria, you won't be in Town Bank for this storm, you'll be evacuating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks sort of like another Gloria. Final track will likely have it 50-75 miles off the NJ coast. The saving grace is it's forward speed...looks to move in and out quickly. Granted beach erosion and minor-moderate damage us still likely, this could have been a lot worse. There seems to be little to no support for the Euro track verbatim attm. Definitely is the farthest west of all guidance.now if the Euro was in the middle of other guidance or had more support, then the NJ landfall would be justifiable possibility,but we shouldn't see it pan out as a direct NJ landfall. PerIgee new moon will be interesting for beach erosion and back bay flooding tho regardless. I still think we are dodging a bullet here and it could have been worse. The Euro has been collecting support ever since its 12Z run came in. GFDL, HWRF, to name a couple. Agree that direct NJ landfall is pretty tough to pull off...but a DelMarVa/NJ scraper is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My generator is propane and kicks on automatically 10 seconds after power goes out. Powers most of the house....including heat but no AC and no cable internet but the Satellite TV works. Great investment if you live in an area prone to outages A battery is only going to last so long too in the event of a power loss. I got a backup system that runs off of the water line in the house and drains through the sewer lines. It requires no power at all and runs off of suction created by the running water in your house. Its expensive but it works well and you never have to worry about losing power and then battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The Euro has been collecting support ever since its 12Z run came in. GFDL, HWRF, to name a couple. Agree that direct NJ landfall is pretty tough to pull off...but a DelMarVa/NJ scraper is still on the table. ukie came west and is inline with the euro also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You saying we dodged a bullet 3 days out, is just as bad as the crap that was being said in the NYC thread last night when it showed it going far east. Anything can still happen. It could come into Jersey, or it could even move back east again and miss wide right. 50-75 miles offshore, would do a hell of a lot of damage around here. Hurricane force winds stretch out 95 miles from the center, and Tropical Storm force winds stretch out to 230 miles. That's a hell of a lot of wind, on already saturated ground. Add on possibly 8-12 inches of rain like HPC shows? That's a hell of a lot of damage coming. And you do realize what Gloria did down here right? If we get another Gloria, you won't be in Town Bank for this storm, you'll be evacuating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ukie came west and is inline with the euro also If this keeps up, we'll be on the tornadic side of the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Tom Our buddy JB has been on this west train....feels almost like winter storm tracking mode! ukie came west and is inline with the euro also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 from wiki--- great atlantic hurricane of 1944... Jersey ShoreThe hurricane was infamous for the amount of damage it caused along the New Jersey coastline. The shore towns of Long Beach Island, Barnegat, Atlantic City, Ocean City, and Cape May all suffered major damage. Long Beach Island and Barnegat Island both lost their causeways to the mainland in the storm effectively cutting them off from the rest of New Jersey. Additionally both islands lost hundreds of homes, in particular the Harvey Cedars section of Long Beach Island where many homes in the town were swept out to sea. In Atlantic City the hurricane's storm surge forced water into the lobbies of many of the resorts famous hotels. The Atlantic City boardwalk suffered major damage along with the citys famous ocean piers. Both the famed Steel Pier and Heinz Pier were partially destroyed by the hurricane with only the Steel Pier getting rebuilt. Ocean City and Cape May also lost many homes in the storm with Ocean City's boardwalk suffering significant damage. Larry Savadove's devotes a whole chapter in his book Great Storms of the Jersey Shore to the hurricane and the imprint and lore it left on the Jersey Shore. Jersey certainly dodged a bullet with that one, didn't it...with a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We dodged a bullet? Seriously? A storm 50 miles off the coast will be DEVASTATING for the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not to be annoying, but has anyone else noticed that the thread title is lrene (lowercase "L"), not Irene (capital "i")? Might hamper forum searches after this is all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Tom Our buddy JB has been on this west train....feels almost like winter storm tracking mode! lol i know paul, i feel like im in winter storm mode with all the model watching..good practice for later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We dodged a bullet? Seriously? A storm 50 miles off the coast will be DEVASTATING for the Jersey shore. Sorry guys, my point was, it's 20x's better than a Cat 3 tracking up the Delaware Bay. Gloria didn't reconfigure the coastline of NJ, and neither will this one IF it remains 50-75 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not to be annoying, but has anyone else noticed that the thread title is lrene (lowercase "L"), not Irene (capital "i")? Might hamper forum searches after this is all said and done. great now i keep looking at this, lol. should rename title to OBS/Discussion but it will hit 50 pages soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 great now i keep looking at this, lol. should rename title to OBS/Discussion but it will hit 50 pages soon enough Almost wonder if we should have a general banter thread specifically for Irene, along with a model disco./obs. thread as the storm draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Almost wonder if we should have a general banter thread specifically for Irene, along with a model disco./obs. thread as the storm draws near. like the main forum, good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not something we see every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM looks north of its 18z position through 36, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 like the main forum, good idea yeah, just b/c it will be interesting hearing about other members prep. for the arrival of Irene....especially our Jersey people (if it strikes) and while its nice to hear about, it shouldn't go in an obs/models thread IMO.I'm just not sure the mods. want to deal with digging through 2 seperate threads in a subforum.....its not like they need the extra work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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