SmokeEater Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 reportedly 956 into Cape May for landfall. I can't see Cape May surviving such a hit. Let's hope it's low tide. It's not low tide at all. Hell, I wanna get rocked by a decent cane, but that track is just beyond bad. Parts of this area will be gone. Just last night many were on the forums were writing this off. Way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Rainfall total on 12z EURO from 00z Sunday to 06z Monday: PHL: 6.42 ABE: 5.67 ACY: 4.61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldn't hang my hat on any of the global models at this point. Wouldn't it make more sense to follow the actual hurricane guidance (models) which trended a good bit East from their 0Z and 6Z runs?? Serious question. Btw, I am living in Cape May at the moment and our home away from home until next Wednesday. Town Bank to be exact. Anyone interested in 'chasing' and needs a place to crash, inbox me. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's not low tide at all. Hell, I wanna get rocked by a decent cane, but that track is just beyond bad. Parts of this area will be gone. Just last night many were on the forums were writing this off. Way too soon. Tides at cape May on Sunday (keep in mind Sunday is the new moon as well so tides will already be running very high). Sunday08/28/117:51AM5.1 feet High TideSunday08/28/111:37PM-0.21 feet Low Tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We really need this thing to veer OTS. The Euro as depicted would be carnage in Cape May and the flooding in SJ would be beyond bad. Even here in northern DE we'd be in trouble along with NE MD and SE PA. The weenie in me wants to see a cane hit somewhere close but the realist in me knows it would be a bad bad thing for a lot of people. SNE can keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We really need this thing to veer OTS. The Euro as depicted would be carnage in Cape May and the flooding in SJ would be beyond bad. Even here in northern DE we'd be in trouble along with NE MD and SE PA. The weenie in me wants to see a cane hit somewhere close but the realist in me knows it would be a bad bad thing for a lot of people. SNE can keep it. Four day verification is what? 200 miles? Same truth as in winter - the safest place to be is in the sweetspot four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm looking for a serious response but my house is in Wildwood Crest and I was thinking of going down for this should this thing actually hit. Just like winter I'm not really sold on a track until 2 days before. Is this a good or bad Idea assuming this does happen. I have been waiting a long time for this. My house is 4 blocks off the beach and for anyone that doesnt know the beach itself where I go is another 2 or 3 blocks long depending on tides. Any comments or suggestions are helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm looking for a serious response but my house is in Wildwood Crest and I was thinking of going down for this should this thing actually hit. Just like winter I'm not really sold on a track until 2 days before. Is this a good or bad Idea assuming this does happen. I have been waiting a long time for this. My house is 4 blocks off the beach and for anyone that doesnt know the beach itself where I go is another 2 or 3 blocks long depending on tides. Any comments or suggestions are helpful. My response above was serious - if the eye if forecasted to pass over your house four days out, its unlikely to actually pass over your house. If I had to bet, I would bet Irene passes off shore, but its clearly still possible you could be in the NE quadrant. If I was thinking about it, I'd approach it pretty seriously with one particular question - what kind of flooding in your area would you expect in a worst case scenario which would be a Cat 2/3 at high tide. If that gets water to your doorstep i wouldn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm looking for a serious response but my house is in Wildwood Crest and I was thinking of going down for this should this thing actually hit. Just like winter I'm not really sold on a track until 2 days before. Is this a good or bad Idea assuming this does happen. I have been waiting a long time for this. My house is 4 blocks off the beach and for anyone that doesnt know the beach itself where I go is another 2 or 3 blocks long depending on tides. Any comments or suggestions are helpful. Boch, I'm debating heading down south jersey or li. Problem with south jersey/cape may is storm surge and flooding. The islands flood pretty fast, and if the euro depiction is true, maybe one hell of a storm surge because the NE quad blowing onto the shore. You'd have to play it real conservative and know where an when to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It really is a wait and see situation, atleast for the next 24 hours or so.....that would give you (Boch) roughly 48 hours to get things in order prior to any major effects. With the Euro as the western outlier....I'd tend to think (until I see proof otherwise) that Irene stays just offshore of NJ and hits central or eastern LI as its furthest west point. Obvisouly that could change. I myself will be heading back to Long Island if the expected track takes it west of my hometown. Part of me is already second guessing the idea though as the thought of a flooded Belt Parkway trying to get back to PA on Monday make me cringe. Definetely nothing set in stone yet and too much variance in the models for a clear decision now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So one thing Mt. Holly talked about a couple of days ago was a possible PRE event. The set-up doesn't look quite right to me, but I'd be interested in others take. Here's an interesting PowerPoint if anyone's interested: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm looking for a serious response but my house is in Wildwood Crest and I was thinking of going down for this should this thing actually hit. Just like winter I'm not really sold on a track until 2 days before. Is this a good or bad Idea assuming this does happen. I have been waiting a long time for this. My house is 4 blocks off the beach and for anyone that doesnt know the beach itself where I go is another 2 or 3 blocks long depending on tides. Any comments or suggestions are helpful. I am thinking of heading down as well. In laws have a place in OC right just off the bay and overooking Great Egg Harbor. I am concerned about back bay flooding. but the house sits on top of the garage and is two stories tall, so I should be ok, although my Jeep Grand Cherokee may not be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So one thing Mt. Holly talked about a couple of days ago was a possible PRE event. The set-up doesn't look quite right to me, but I'd be interested in others take. Here's an interesting PowerPoint if anyone's interested: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt They still expect one Saturday night/Sunday morning. PWAT's approaching 3" near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 They still expect one Saturday night/Sunday morning. PWAT's approaching 3" near the coast. You are correct: THE POSSIBLE PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO START ON SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF ONSHORE WINDS DRIVE INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEARING 2.0-2.5 INCHES/ INTO THE AREA WITH THE FLOW SLOWING SOME INLAND POSSIBLY AIDING IN CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thanks guys obviously don't want to do anything stupid. My House is actually about 12 feet off of the ground and is actually built up on a hill, maybe hill isnt a good word but it is slightly elevated. I also have access to the condo above me which is connected with a stairwell. I don't think that situation would present itself though. I guess I will wait to see what tomorrow brings. If I do head down it would be early saturday morning. The Crest has some pretty serious dunes and thats not including the new row they put in Over the winter. I'll have to look into tides etc as I said in the next day or two. My family thinks I'm crazy and rightfully so lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM seems to be coming in west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM seems to be coming in west of 12z. The NAM has been all over the place with Irene. It hasn't shown any trends. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM came back east 100 miles at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NAM has been all over the place with Irene. It hasn't shown any trends. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM came back east 100 miles at 0z. also, i wouldnt use the nam outside 48 hrs... because it changes so much do to the grid its run on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Boch, I'm debating heading down south jersey or li. Problem with south jersey/cape may is storm surge and flooding. The islands flood pretty fast, and if the euro depiction is true, maybe one hell of a storm surge because the NE quad blowing onto the shore. You'd have to play it real conservative and know where an when to go. I agree. Flooding could be a major issue with the moon if this holds track. Most shore towns are only a few feet in elevation and flood in 2 inches of rain, let alone 5-10inches and strong NE winds on the moon. Avalon, for example is only 6ft in elevation and initial forecast is 2-4ft in surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Rainfall total on 12z EURO from 00z Sunday to 06z Monday: PHL: 6.42 ABE: 5.67 ACY: 4.61 KAVP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 KAVP? 4.24 in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also what are peoples thoughts on boarding up windows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also what are peoples thoughts on boarding up windows? I have a 50 year old house with original windows. I'd be greatful if Irene smashed every one of them and my insurance company bought me nice new ones with triple panes with all sorts of gases in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have a 50 year old house with original windows. I'd be greatful if Irene smashed every one of them and my insurance company bought me nice new ones with triple panes with all sorts of gases in between. Lol and if u had 5 years old windows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have a 50 year old house with original windows. I'd be greatful if Irene smashed every one of them and my insurance company bought me nice new ones with triple panes with all sorts of gases in between. Ahh... so put the boards on the inside. Sneaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 fwiw, jb posted this on twitter UKMET joins euro in 1821 trackhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1821_Atlantic_Hurricane_Track_Map.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 All you guys thinking of going to any barrier island, if this does come to pass, don't even think about going down there to stay for the duration. You'll be evacuating before the storm gets here. Plans are already being put in place to do so, once it becomes more clear. Go down for pics, whatever, but get off the barrier islands before she hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 All you guys thinking of going to any barrier island, if this does come to pass, don't even think about going down there to stay for the duration. You'll be evacuating before the storm gets here. Plans are already being put in place to do so, once it becomes more clear. Go down for pics, whatever, but get off the barrier islands before she hits. Ultimately I know I won't be able to go down but I will want too until the storm is over. And if the euro does come true I don't think I will need to go to the beach anyway to see what I want to see.Unless of course Irishbri wants to drive haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 if you were wondering what the nam would of looked like post 84 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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