winterwarlock Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 keep moving this thing east and out to sea, we dont need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow, quiet in here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow, quiet in here this morning. funny how 100 mile shifts over 48 hours will change post volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 funny how 100 mile shifts over 48 hours will change post volume. Yup. 12z runs should be interesting......maybe the east trends will slow..........maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Now watch it shift west like Boxing Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know many want a hit but I'd rather see this east shift continue. Hate to see tons of damage to homes / businesses / beaches. I couldn't agree more. A TC with wind and rain would be fun. But NOT a Cat 2 hurricane. Let the eastward trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 When you look at the NOAA loop for NW Atlantic you can see how the eye seems to jog around the islands. http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well, the precip shield certainly moved west at 6Z compared to the 0Z run last night. Not sure about low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 With all the "too far east" talk this AM - I think it will be interesting to see the interaction of the front passing through Thursday and drawing (as was suggested yesterday) moisture up this way well in advance of Irene on Friday or Saturday. Are we making this a non-event in our minds when in reality the rain could be very significant in the Delaware valley even if the center shoots off to the east further than was showing yesterday. I'm a weenie so maybe some professional input would clarify this a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 With all the "too far east" talk this AM - I think it will be interesting to see the interaction of the front passing through Thursday and drawing (as was suggested yesterday) moisture up this way well in advance of Irene on Friday or Saturday. Are we making this a non-event in our minds when in reality the rain could be very significant in the Delaware valley even if the center shoots off to the east further than was showing yesterday. I'm a weenie so maybe some professional input would clarify this a bit. I agree with this statement. It is the drawing up of moisture from the storm that concerns me not the storm itself. Wrap around moisture on this storm could be just as bad- especially training thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GFS looks a touch W of 0z. Hours 93-102 look like bad news for our area, especially E of the Delaware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You guys getting ready? We've got 2 pumps coming from the County just in case this rocks us. We're not gonna get caught with our pants down again with the lakes/river, like happened with the last storm. To be honest, not sure what the plan is. Us, career staff, don't work the weekends. Thats left for the volunteers relief workers. 2 guys in 5 stations working... And I'm sure guys will come down. But us as "career" ff's, prob won't get involved unless something drastic changes within the track itself. I'm sure you guys still have the pumps and boats running still! Lol. The qpf gradient on the 12z gf's is insane. There looks o be strong subsidence between Philly to Harrisburg. Seems like that's where the cut off will be. So while harrisburg gets maybe an inch, Philly gets 2-4, and you guys get slammed with 10"+.... so that 50-75 mile swath is gonna be the battle zone. Any shift east or west will affect more or less people. Sorry for the late response. I'm down in sea isle till sat am on vaca. I head home sat noon, get my car and debate where to head. I am probably gonna chase this thing., just debating where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 To be honest, not sure what the plan is. Us, career staff, don't work the weekends. Thats left for the volunteers relief workers. 2 guys in 5 stations working... And I'm sure guys will come down. But us as "career" ff's, prob won't get involved unless something drastic changes within the track itself. I'm sure you guys still have the pumps and boats running still! Lol. The qpf gradient on the 12z gf's is insane. There looks o be strong subsidence between Philly to Harrisburg. Seems like that's where the cut off will be. So while harrisburg gets maybe an inch, Philly gets 2-4, and you guys get slammed with 10"+.... so that 50-75 mile swath is gonna be the battle zone. Any shift east or west will affect more or less people. Sorry for the late response. I'm down in sea isle till sat am on vaca. I head home sat noon, get my car and debate where to head. I am probably gonna chase this thing., just debating where. Just woke up, short but sweet, looks like the east trend has slowed or stopped? TWC takes it 50-100 miles off the coast, but still close enough to rock us down here. Still plenty of time for this thing to come west some. With this system being so big, any west shift is huge. And both me and my Dad are gonna be ridiculously busy. He with the electric company, and me with the FD. If you want, gimme a heads up of where you're gonna go, if you come down to the shore, maybe I'll meet up with ya. In between the pager going off I'm gonna head down somewhere and get some footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Tom (or someone else) want to do the PBP on the Euro now that the GFS has come back west some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Tom (or someone else) want to do the PBP on the Euro now that the GFS has come back west some? The Euro PBP should be going on here shortly - http://www.americanw...n/page__st__620 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Their saying the Euro is a tad more westward. Which means most of the 12Z models have inched back westward...yet NHC's 2pm plot is more eastward. ? confusing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Their saying the Euro is a tad more westward. Which means most of the 12Z models have inched back westward...yet NHC's 2pm plot is more eastward. ? confusing.. From New England thread: 102 landfall at Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Their saying the Euro is a tad more westward. Which means most of the 12Z models have inched back westward...yet NHC's 2pm plot is more eastward. ? confusing.. Holy Crap!! Hour 102 of the 12z Euro has landfall at Cape May! The flooding scenario appears to be back on track boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From New England thread: 102 landfall at Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Holy Crap!! Hour 102 of the 12z Euro has landfall at Cape May! The flooding scenario appears to be back on track boys. Why the heck did NHC go further east with their 2pm track then ? It's driving me nuts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 terrible for the area, why people want a hit is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Basically, GFS and ECMWF look the same through about 72, with a slim miss of Hatteras. EC takes it pretty much due N while GFS continues NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 terrible for the area, why people want a hit is beyond me. Yeah, from what I've read of the Euro, it sounds horrifying. We don't want Irene anywhere near the Delaware Bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From the main model thread, a note about the 12z GFS Before you guys get too sucked into the ECWMF... I want to point out the positive changes for a leftward pathway that appeared on the 12z GFS. For the second run in a row the 12z GFS remained pretty flat with the kicker shortwave, and made it even slightly less progressive. thegreatdr also brought up some great points about the leading shortwave (the one located northward of Newfoundland). If this feature trends too strong or too far south, it could flatten the 500mb ridge to the point that it allows for a more eastward progression of Irene. It seems that what happened on the 12z run was that these two shortwaves were counteracting each other in regards to the motion of Irene. The upstream shortwave less progressive, so its not trying to force Irene out too early. In addition while the downstream shortwave is stronger, its actually displaced further north than the previous runs, hence we have a stronger ridge. The 12z GFS is a positive run for an east coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 euro is back to the 12z postion yesterday afternoon...its big winds and 5-9 inches of rain, heaviest from west chest er to dingmans ferry to allentown nj to millville...right along the del river is 8-9 inchjes of rain....it comes into cape may sub 970 easily, cant see the isobars they are so clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 terrible for the area, why people want a hit is beyond me. For the same reasons many want major blizzards with 50 mph winds and sub-zero wind chills in winter. It's weather, we're all weenies, and it's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 terrible for the area, why people want a hit is beyond me. I don't want it. The creek near me can only take about 6-7" of rain before it gets to my house. I may have to sweat this one. I know that 6-7" sounds like a lot, but no-nothing Tammy in 2005 gave me ~10" one Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For the same reasons many want major blizzards with 50 mph winds and sub-zero wind chills in winter. It's weather, we're all weenies, and it's exciting. I totally agree and I think he gets that, but this becomes a "be careful what you wish for" type scenario. Personally, I don't want my two year old daughter and wife who is 8 months pregnant to have to go through any hardships that Irene may bring... I'd be lying if I didn't say that the weenie in me though wants to stand on the beach with arms outstretched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 euro is back to the 12z postion yesterday afternoon...its big winds and 5-9 inches of rain, heaviest from west chest er to dingmans ferry to allentown nj to millville...right along the del river is 8-9 inchjes of rain....it comes into cape may sub 970 easily, cant see the isobars they are so clustered. reportedly 956 into Cape May for landfall. I can't see Cape May surviving such a hit. Let's hope it's low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For the same reasons many want major blizzards with 50 mph winds and sub-zero wind chills in winter. It's weather, we're all weenies, and it's exciting. but steve thats different! its SNOW edit.. alright lets not get off topic.. sorry adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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