tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 gfs has 85-90 mph winds at 925mb...not sure how that equates to surface but thats gotta be close to sustained to 40 i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My goodness. I need to head to OCNJ beach house this weekend If the 12Z position is correct (IF) then Jersey shore see the full brunt of a cat 2-3 hurricane as the eye wall passes along the entire coast line. My friend and I are headed down to Sea Isle City on Saturday night. This is going to be absolutely crazy. Good to see the 12z GFS come west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My friend and I are headed down to Sea Isle City on Saturday night. This is going to be absolutely crazy. Good to see the 12z GFS come west! I might make a special trip to Monmouth County Shore-line myself meetup with my friend from West Freehold township and go filming at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Based on what I am hearing, sounds like it would be closer to a cat 1 with that position off the Jersey coast, but still gonna due some damage with beach erosion. Labor day beaches not going to look to hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm wondering if Mount Holly's thinking of putting out an SPS either today or tomorrow. Yeah, it's still early in the game...but the consequences of a direct hit could be disastrous on many fronts. Flooding, Coastal Flooding, and possibly wind as well. I think there was a NWS decision to restrict SPS's to 6 hours or less in advance of the anticipated weather, and use the HWO for long-range hazards. In fact the HWO has mentioned possible Irene impacts since yesterday. Somebody let me know if I'm wrong on this, as I've wondered about it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think there was a NWS decision to restrict SPS's to 6 hours or less in advance of the anticipated weather, and use the HWO for long-range hazards. In fact the HWO has mentioned possible Irene impacts since yesterday. Somebody let me know if I'm wrong on this, as I've wondered about it myself. The time frame for SPS issuances regarding outlooks has been extended to 12 hours now. Otherwise, the correct place is in the HWO which is where we are currently mentioning Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The time frame for SPS issuances regarding outlooks has been extended to 12 hours now. Otherwise, the correct place is in the HWO which is where we are currently mentioning Irene. I coulda swore there was a SPS days beforehand when the superstorm struck in 93'. no ? This is pretty much in that territory in terms of overall chaos. (if it doesn't go out to sea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I coulda swore there was a SPS days beforehand when the superstorm struck in 93'. no ? This is pretty much in that territory in terms of overall chaos. (if it doesn't go out to sea) There is also the Briefing Package from the NWS. This is yesterday's. An updated one should be out later today. Briefing Package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I coulda swore there was a SPS days beforehand when the superstorm struck in 93'. no ? This is pretty much in that territory in terms of overall chaos. (if it doesn't go out to sea) The current SPS policy did not exist back in '93, so yes there probably was an SPS issued days before the superstorm. The HWO is an outlook product for potential hazardous weather, therefore potential impacts like from a hurricane this far out belongs in the HWO and that is where we have it (also mentioned in the AFD, and posting briefing packages on our web site). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There is also the Briefing Package from the NWS. This is yesterday's. An updated one should be out later today. Briefing Package The current SPS policy did not exist back in '93, so yes there probably was an SPS issued days before the superstorm. The HWO is an outlook product for potential hazardous weather, therefore potential impacts like from a hurricane this far out belongs in the HWO and that is where we have it (also mentioned in the AFD, and posting briefing packages on our web site). Regardless, and whatever it's called these days.. I feel like the public needs to know. Back in '93 when the internet was barely established...It was all TWC and seeing the red SPS scrolling along the bottom of the TV that woke everyone up days beforehand. It sounds like we've done away with these basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The time frame for SPS issuances regarding outlooks has been extended to 12 hours now. Otherwise, the correct place is in the HWO which is where we are currently mentioning Irene. Thanks, Mike, for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z euro is the worse case scenario possible...lamdfall is delaware bay/cape may , nj sub 965 i cant count the isobars so it may be lower...worse case track that can happen...just one run though...dumps 5-8 inches of rain from jerz shore to harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Regardless, and whatever it's called these days.. I feel like the public needs to know. Back in '93 when the internet was barely established...It was all TWC and seeing the red SPS scrolling along the bottom of the TV that woke everyone up days beforehand. It sounds like we've done away with these basics. I am sure the public is and will know about this as the media is talking about it. It will likely get more attention as the week continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you do a map, Tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Latest Euro 120 hrs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you do a map, Tombo? on qpf or track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I am sure the public is and will know about this as the media is talking about it. It will likely get more attention as the week continues. I appreciate it , Mike. But you guys (and OKX) are the big dogs. Once it's issued from NWS , everyone listens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 on qpf or track Both please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, the Euro is trending slightly east too. Hmmmmmm.......wonder if its inching towards a GFS-ish solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, the Euro is trending slightly east too. Hmmmmmm.......wonder if its inching towards a GFS-ish solution. I think the models are grouped up pretty tight right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 track is in the solid line qpf wise white 4-5 red 5-6 dark red 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, the Euro is trending slightly east too. Hmmmmmm.......wonder if its inching towards a GFS-ish solution. even if you take the gfs 12z solution, phl has sustained winds 35-40 with higher gusts.. acy is sustained 45-50 higher gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Does anyone know if the GDFL is the model for forecasting intensity? On post # 272 of the model discussion on the main forum (), a GDFL intensity map shows max winds in northern DE of about 70-80 kts (80-92 mph). I was surprised to see that a model thinks that the winds could still be so intense. I had expected that it would be severely downgraded after LF. Does anyone know if this is realistic (still Cat 1 long after LF)? If it's within the realm of possibilities, I'll have to rethink my lame contingency plan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Does anyone know if the GDFL is the model for forecasting intensity? On post # 272 of the model discussion on the main forum (http://www.americanw...n/page__st__260), a GDFL intensity map shows max winds in northern DE of about 70-80 kts (80-92 mph). I was surprised to see that a model thinks that the winds could still be so intense. I had expected that it would be severely downgraded after LF. Does anyone know if this is realistic (still Cat 1 long after LF)? If it's within the realm of possibilities, I'll have to rethink my lame contingency plan... that seems correct, because its not going into nc like towards raliegh, its going through the outer banks and over norfolk and ches bay...it will weaken but no to the rate if it just plowed due west inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 even if you take the gfs 12z solution, phl has sustained winds 35-40 with higher gusts.. acy is sustained 45-50 higher gust Yeah, Philly to NJ shore may have a rough ride. And rains further inland could be a major issue, atleast into the Delaware Valley. Honestly, I'm more concermed about my family on Long Island. I could end up there this weekend if I find it worth the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 that seems correct, because its not going into nc like towards raliegh, its going through the outer banks and over norfolk and ches bay...it will weaken but no to the rate if it just plowed due west inland But is that at the surface? Not sure where 900 hPa is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But is that at the surface? Not sure where 900 hPa is. im not sure either...they just posted a map in the main thread its a 952mb storm in southern jerz, thats prob way to low like they said...mid 970s seems more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 heres the 12z gfdl 12z hwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 But is that at the surface? Not sure where 900 hPa is. above the empire state building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 imho, i think this thing misses us to the point we get some rain but not much. I think e li and sne are under the gun.The models are continuing to pick up on the trough being deeper. This will only escape so far east though do to the expanding ridge in the atl. Its just rare to see the track the euro shows from a storm that scrapes the banks then bends nnw into our region. Climo would favor a bend ots or over ack, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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