Sunny and Warm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 yea, still a long ways to go and lots can change, but thats not good Honestly, that's not bad for the bigger watersheds. Yeah, it's bad for the Rancocos (sp?) and other smaller rivers/streams in Jersey, but I'd prefer that map than one 50-75 miles west, where it'd affect a whole lot more people and property. Also, as I'm sure you'd agree, that map is subject to great changes over the coming days, good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Honestly, that's not bad for the bigger watersheds. Yeah, it's bad for the Rancocos (sp?) and other smaller rivers/streams in Jersey, but I'd prefer that map than one 50-75 miles west, where it'd affect a whole lot more people and property. Also, as I'm sure you'd agree, that map is subject to great changes over the coming days, good and bad. yea thats my fear, is that this goes further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tom. Are you going to do any Euro precip maps for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Tom. Are you going to do any Euro precip maps for this event? yup i will.. i mean its pretty uniform...like the 12z was 3-4 for everyone from del river west, with a few pockets of 4-5... i'll start them tomorrow afternoon when i get home if it still hit us. So expect them after 3pm. 0z runs i cant do maps for cause i don't have photoshop at my computer at work. but i will verbally say the boundries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 heres the 18z indiv ens tot qpf runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 yup i will.. i mean its pretty uniform...like the 12z was 3-4 for everyone from del river west, with a few pockets of 4-5... i'll start them tomorrow afternoon when i get home if it still hit us. So expect them after 3pm. 0z runs i cant do maps for cause i don't have photoshop at my computer at work. but i will verbally say the boundries. Cool...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 655 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071- 232300- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 655 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE AND A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SINCE TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH...THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 yea thats my fear, is that this goes further west It's going to be hard to nail down exactly where the heavy rain shield is going to go but I've read a few meteorologists today and they are very concerned that my area (and the susquehanna river basin) is going to get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's going to be hard to nail down exactly where the heavy rain shield is going to go but I've read a few meteorologists today and they are very concerned that my area (and the susquehanna river basin) is going to get slammed. Orographic lift and training thunderstorms will be a widespread issue. With saturated soils in place in several areas of the watershed already, even 2-4 inches of rain will be a problematic for this area. Just imagine that this rainfall will be watershed wide training thunderstorms and not localized pulse type t-storms and that spells big floods for all rivers and creeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The wind threat may be another big issue. Widespread gusts to 50-60+ mph as depicted on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The wind threat may be another big issue. Widespread gusts to 50-60+ mph as depicted on the 0z GFS. If the GFS verified, I don't see as much rain getting back to the spine of the Apps. Since it is still a viable TC as it passes due north up the coast, it will retain most of its mass near the core, or near the coast. There is no short wave to absorb it into a big rainmaker further removed like you saw with Floyd and many other storms. This reminds me of Bob, where its passage in central PA was met with sunny skies with high cirrus. The Euro on the other hand takes it over Allentown slowly, so in that case, all hell would likely break loose. I prefer a blend of the two. A Euro landfall point or slightly east of the 00z run, with a more NNE component taking it just inside the GFS position at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0z euro is bad...4-5 inches of rain from del river to lns-abe-dingmans ferry line...from those regions from hgr to bgm its 5-6 inches of rain...del river to to perth amboy to vinland line is 3-4...then 2-3 from there to the shore.... the euro has a landfall just east of moorehead city then travel over the outer banks over norfolk right up the cheapeake over northeast md to abe...pressure wise is in the low 970 so cat 2 hurricane i would assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If the GFS verified, I don't see as much rain getting back to the spine of the Apps. Since it is still a viable TC as it passes due north up the coast, it will retain most of its mass near the core, or near the coast. There is no short wave to absorb it into a big rainmaker further removed like you saw with Floyd and many other storms. This reminds me of Bob, where its passage in central PA was met with sunny skies with high cirrus. The Euro on the other hand takes it over Allentown slowly, so in that case, all hell would likely break loose. I prefer a blend of the two. A Euro landfall point or slightly east of the 00z run, with a more NNE component taking it just inside the GFS position at this latitude. The 0z GFS showed a very Gloria-like track and Gloria was pretty uneventful (IIRC) west of the city for the most part. The EC is probably near worst-case scenario with this storm (just west of the city with the low) 0z euro is bad...4-5 inches of rain from del river to lns-abe-dingmans ferry line...from those regions from hgr to bgm its 5-6 inches of rain...del river to to perth amboy to vinland line is 3-4...then 2-3 from there to the shore.... the euro has a landfall just east of moorehead city then travel over the outer banks over norfolk right up the cheapeake over northeast md to abe...pressure wise is in the low 970 so cat 2 hurricane i would assume After being over land from NC it won't be a Cat 2 to our area. The pressure is irrelevant post-landfall as it takes a while to spin down. Could be a cat 1 but a lot of that is dependent on how fast it is moving when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0z euro is bad...4-5 inches of rain from del river to lns-abe-dingmans ferry line...from those regions from hgr to bgm its 5-6 inches of rain...del river to to perth amboy to vinland line is 3-4...then 2-3 from there to the shore.... the euro has a landfall just east of moorehead city then travel over the outer banks over norfolk right up the cheapeake over northeast md to abe...pressure wise is in the low 970 so cat 2 hurricane i would assume I like Morehead City as the likely landfall attm. Not sure I buy into the nearly north depiction from there. My experience is that storms tend to bleed a little east as they gain latitude. I'll say that I think it goes just east of Philly. Still a ton of rain for E-PA and environs though, but the Delaware may receive the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The 0z GFS showed a very Gloria-like track and Gloria was pretty uneventful (IIRC) west of the city for the most part. The EC is probably near worst-case scenario with this storm (just west of the city with the low) After being over land from NC it won't be a Cat 2 to our area. The pressure is irrelevant post-landfall as it takes a while to spin down. Could be a cat 1 but a lot of that is dependent on how fast it is moving when it gets here. agreed on all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z GFS and 12z from yesterday are in pretty good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well....over the past 24-36 hours, most of the trends on the models have been for further north and east track of Irene (other than the Euro). That appears to be postive news for the 99.9% of us who don't want flooding this weekend. We'll see if this trend continues. Maybe the Euro will start inching eastward in upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea 6z GFS also shifted almost all the heaviest rains off the NJ coast. but the euro has been rock solid and consistent. The only one that has been consistent through this so far.. dont know what the euro track record is with this stuff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea 6z GFS also shifted almost all the heaviest rains off the NJ coast. but the euro has been rock solid and consistent. The only one that has been consistent through this so far.. dont know what the euro track record is with this stuff though Me either (on the Euro), but if the other models and ensembles continue a trend to a track near or off the coast, then I'd imagine (or guess) the Euro would very slowly nudge eastward over the course of the week. With that said, if the track is anything like the 00z GFS there would be an amazing difference in rainfall across our forum region. I just can't believe its only Tuesday and so much is likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea 6z GFS also shifted almost all the heaviest rains off the NJ coast. but the euro has been rock solid and consistent. The only one that has been consistent through this so far.. dont know what the euro track record is with this stuff though With Earl (last year) the Euro was more consistently east of reality but it had the right idea regarding impacts for the region (next-to-none)...right for wrong reasons if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Me either (on the Euro), but if the other models and ensembles continue a trend to a track near or off the coast, then I'd imagine (or guess) the Euro would very slowly nudge eastward over the course of the week. With that said, if the track is anything like the 00z GFS there would be an amazing difference in rainfall across our forum region. I just can't believe its only Tuesday and so much is likely to change. You can save this one for January and substitute snow for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 You can save this one for January and substitute snow for rain. If I am wrong , please let me know but is it not foolish to rely on the models this far out when predicting the path of a hurricane? There are so many variables that affect the path of the storm, especially this time of the year. My concern is that no matter what the final path is along the coast, even if we are in the NW quadrant of the storm, there will be a bucket full of rain over us. Is also true that even though we be west of the storm, heavy rain and squally weather is still a factor over our saturated soils? I would love to guess the exact path but the way the patterns have been lately, it is a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not sure about looking directly at the models (or one specific) but I like the overall trends, if that matters at all. Just imagine if the opposite trends were occuring on the models over the past 48 hours. From out to sea to a SE US landfall.....that would be getting people very nervous. I'm sure people wouldn't be discounting the model trends if that was what they were showing. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 irene looks sw of the 6z positon so far through hr 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 968 just south of Hatteras at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 966 just NNE of Hatteras at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 964 east of VA Beach at 114. HEAVY rain in South Jersey. Appears to be moving almost due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 120 NJ Shore points gettinh hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm wondering if Mount Holly's thinking of putting out an SPS either today or tomorrow. Yeah, it's still early in the game...but the consequences of a direct hit could be disastrous on many fronts. Flooding, Coastal Flooding, and possibly wind as well. Especially since 12z GFS has swung back around again slightly....and latest sat shots of Irene seem to indicate consistent westward wobbles all morning. EDIT: forgot to even mention Thursday's upcoming heavy rains....Rivers will already be close to flood stage before the event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My goodness. I need to head to OCNJ beach house this weekend If the 12Z position is correct (IF) then Jersey shore see the full brunt of a cat 2-3 hurricane as the eye wall passes along the entire coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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