tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 looks like irene has stalled or is creeping along. Doesnt even look like it has moved recently http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=MHX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1314455790&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 yea i know it is, i didnt know how to save it as a picture so i did a print scrn capture lol....sustained winds in kts Tombo, i'd have to imagine the sustained winds would be stronger than that east of the center in NJ w/ the center cutting thru nj like that, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The first rain from Irene is here. Heavy shower ongoing with wind gusts to 10 mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tombo, i'd have to imagine the sustained winds would be stronger than that east of the center in NJ w/ the center cutting thru nj like that, no? yea i would imagine so, im not sure how good these models pic up on winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 latest hpc map....looks like 9.5 inches just to the south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornado Watch WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 811 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.A.0811.110827T1442Z-110828T0000Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 811 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL DELAWARE KENT IN NORTHERN DELAWARE NEW CASTLE IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE SUSSEX IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND SALEM THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY...CENTREVILLE... CHESTERTOWN...DENTON...DOVER...EASTON...GEORGETOWN...HAMMONTON... MILLVILLE...OCEAN CITY...PENNSVILLE AND WILMINGTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Quote of the day Irene is a cat 1 storm in a cat 3 body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE EASTERN MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 810... DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUE TO CONTAIN SMALL ROTATING CELLS. THESE ARE MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE TIDEWATER NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH AND EAST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY OVER COASTAL VA AND MD. A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD ALONG THE COAST AS IRENE MOVES NNEWD PER LATEST NHC FORECAST. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 11040. ...WEISS $$ WWUS20 KWNS 270438 SEL0 SPC WW 270438 MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-271500- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1225 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF WALLOPS VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 809... DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A W-E ARC OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE MOVING NWD ACROSS NE NC AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS ON NRN SIDE OF IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF HRCN IRENE. FARTHER N...A SEPARATE BAND OF MORE INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND MOVE NWD FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. INCREASING LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD WITH THE CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF IRENE...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF STORM...WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LVL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AND THE LWR ERN SHORE OF MARYLAND THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WHILE EXISTING THREAT PERSISTS OVER E CNTRL AND NE NC. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 12045. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The first rain from Irene is here. Heavy shower ongoing with wind gusts to 10 mph! Same here in macungie. The prelude of things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do you think TPC will adjust the track at 11am? THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. heres the 8am nhc track and i put a dot to where irene center based on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 kind of OT, but anyone having issues with iphone4 with AT&T? im expecting a tornado watch here later in the day for philly. Westward shift of track, and De being under one, seems like only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z dynamic models..most have converged on a track through se del into cape may area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Historic flooding with the NAM. NAM has 6-7" back here and Mike in Tobyhanna you get close to 9"... Serious situation developing here over NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 kind of OT, but anyone having issues with iphone4 with AT&T? im expecting a tornado watch here later in the day for philly. Westward shift of track, and De being under one, seems like only a matter of time. I don't have any ATT outage reports from Philly, although they do have issues in NC: Trouble Ticket Number: TT000025964670 Severity: 1-High Description of Issue: AT&T Mobility is experiencing an outage in the Southeast Region (North Carolina). Hurricane Irene is moving NNE at 13 mph with sustained winds of appoximately 100 mph. Sites have been dropping since 08/26/11 at 20:00 NWT. Initially, Raleigh has 15 GSM and 11 UMTS sites out of service across multiple RNC/BSCs. Charleston, Charlotte, Columbia, and Greenville each have less than 4 GSM and less than 3 UMTS sites out of service in their markets. MNRC and Local Market Teams have been preparing for outages. MNRC RAN is ticketing power and telco related outages. Bridges have been established to coordinate restoration efforts and Local Market Teams will be accessing the situation and work on recovery when safe to do so. Location of Issue: Southeast Region (North Carolina) and surrounding areas Start Time: Aug 26 2011 10:00 PM EST Symptoms you MAY experience: Mobility subscribers may experience impaired or interrupted service to and from the mobile. Estimated time of repair: Unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I don't have any ATT outage reports from Philly, although they do have issues in NC: Trouble Ticket Number: TT000025964670 Severity: 1-High Description of Issue: AT&T Mobility is experiencing an outage in the Southeast Region (North Carolina). Hurricane Irene is moving NNE at 13 mph with sustained winds of appoximately 100 mph. Sites have been dropping since 08/26/11 at 20:00 NWT. Initially, Raleigh has 15 GSM and 11 UMTS sites out of service across multiple RNC/BSCs. Charleston, Charlotte, Columbia, and Greenville each have less than 4 GSM and less than 3 UMTS sites out of service in their markets. MNRC and Local Market Teams have been preparing for outages. MNRC RAN is ticketing power and telco related outages. Bridges have been established to coordinate restoration efforts and Local Market Teams will be accessing the situation and work on recovery when safe to do so. Location of Issue: Southeast Region (North Carolina) and surrounding areas Start Time: Aug 26 2011 10:00 PM EST Symptoms you MAY experience: Mobility subscribers may experience impaired or interrupted service to and from the mobile. Estimated time of repair: Unknown Verizon T1's that feed cell sites only have 6 hr Battery backup, unless the cell carrier has the Verizon equipment on their generators. During Isabelle people in VA Beach had to drive 30 miles to get a signal. I know because this is what I did for the last 10 years of my carreer with Verizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I expects as many pics as possible from everyone of the flooding. k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Oh and some before and after shots like Parsley is doing would be very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is shaping up to be quite the storm...the flooding is going to be epic if the latest models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 i looked at the nhc track and plots used toms river, nj as base pt for forecast track from the position of the new track....and did the distance calculator westward from the nhc for wind speeds in our area... this isnt the closest position i belive for max winds in the ares just use your imagination as to where the winds would be before and after. red is 74 plus winds light blue 58 mph plus 40 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11:11am, it begins...starting the clock on irene's rainfall in nw burlington county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Oh and some before and after shots like Parsley is doing would be very nice hey Thunder Road, i just checked the neshaminy along mainstreet in humleville it's already up 2-3 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11:11am, it begins...starting the clock on irene's rainfall in nw burlington county... Hurricane said we could have 20 hrs worth of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well the advanced prediction center changed the Neshaminy to up to 18 feet, before it was like 10'. I'm sure there going to be raising it later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well the advanced prediction center changed the Neshaminy to up to 18 feet, before it was like 10'. I'm sure there going to be raising it later today. ya it is up already because of the storms the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 i looked at the nhc track and plots used toms river, nj as base pt for forecast track from the position of the new track....and did the distance calculator westward from the nhc for wind speeds in our area... this isnt the closest position i belive for max winds in the ares just use your imagination as to where the winds would be before and after. red is 74 plus winds light blue 58 mph plus 40 plus Sorry but is that max sustained or max gust. Also first drops started falling 5 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Sorry but is that max sustained or max gust. Also first drops started falling 5 mins ago. it doesnt say on the nhc page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 new pt and click out for zones, mine just got updated...previously was 60mph Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 69. Northeast wind 40 to 50 mph increasing to between 45 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Alan Casper said winds of 30-40 mph inland which isnt all that bad considering..will have some higher gusts.....at the coast....40-60mph with higher gusts but he does not think sustained hurricane winds are likely. Said this wraps up quickly tomorrow morning and scoots away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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