ChescoWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 JBs take on the potential "historic" impact to Atlantic City and the Boardwalk "The track of Irene on the WRF, through Pamlico sound, then along the coast to Cape May means that the sse facing beach of Atlantic City will take an unprecedented storm surge angle for them. The coast is jutting out far enough so that unlike up the coast, where the storm surge is paralleling the coast till Long Island, which may also have their greatest storm surge ever on Fire Island, the crescent shaped beach facing the way it does may have the water pile in higher than 1944. The 1944 storm, like Belle and Gloria, probably had the western part of the eyewall on shore but the wind turning into the north than northwest saves the day." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Convective fireup near the center- looking much better compared to earlier this morning. Might even be trending a bit west of forecasted track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 apparently TWC reported im not sure if it was sustained or gust of over 100 mph...actually they have a confirmed gust of 115 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 in the AFD Mike (I believe) mentions the possibility of high winds even after Irene lifts away Sunday afternoon. Can these winds produce wind gusts greater or equal to what we see during the brunt of the storm? Will this affect the entire CWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene is looking better than it did for most of yesterday. Maybe they'll up the strength 5 mph at 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 in the AFD Mike (I believe) mentions the possibility of high winds even after Irene lifts away Sunday afternoon. Can these winds produce wind gusts greater or equal to what we see during the brunt of the storm? Will this affect the entire CWA? During Gloria our strongest winds occurred when the storm was lifting away & the winds shifted to the NW, locally here in Lower Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 in the AFD Mike (I believe) mentions the possibility of high winds even after Irene lifts away Sunday afternoon. Can these winds produce wind gusts greater or equal to what we see during the brunt of the storm? Will this affect the entire CWA? Might be as the High builds in and the interaction between the departing Tropical Storm and High winds might be high or higher on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 phew, looks like PHL radar is back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Might be as the High builds in and the interaction between the departing Tropical Storm and High winds might be high or higher on the back side. yea, after 5-10" of rain has fallen, that could be very concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 During Gloria our strongest winds occurred when the storm was lifting away & the winds shifted to the NW, locally here in Lower Bucks. Wilmington, NC reporting their highest sustained & gusts after winds have shifted around to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Convective fireup near the center- looking much better compared to earlier this morning. Might even be trending a bit west of forecasted track? I mentioned that on page 39 #777 I also mentioned a few days ago that the late John Hope said that while inland it is moving over sounds and swamps that are warmer then the ocean so a storm could strengthen or maintain strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 unofficial report of 90mph sustained winds on hatteras island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 9z srefs accum precip for the region track of the storm per 9z sref mean looks like right over cape may maybe scraping the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 the core is looking better and better after every satellite picture, tightening up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 nam going with landfall just to the north of acy, then right over or to the west of nyc total rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 9z srefs accum precip for the region track of the storm per 9z sref mean looks like right over cape may maybe scraping the coast Looking wet and windy for us inlanders. Track seems very locked into right up the NJ Coast. Pretty much a worst case track for this particular sitiuation. Of coarse the one possible saving grace is she is not a Cat 3 as was expected a few days ago. Still a very disruptive if not dangerous event ready to unfold for NJ, NYC, LI. As has been talked about alot by Mt Holly and others Irene's interaction with a strong jet as she moves north could be the wildcard that makes or breaks her overall performance with regards to severity of impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene's weakening is of little consequence here, I knew the story back up my way would be the heavy rain...and now we have a shot of seeing 4.00"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That NAM precip map supports my call in the other thread of NJ's rainfall jackpot at MMU. hmmmm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tonight is going to be a wild ride. If the NAM track is correct, batten down the hatches in the LV and get out if you live within or near a flood zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Pretty much anything would be bad at this point for us Lehigh Valley folks. 5+" of rain and wind gusts over 45 mph is almost a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 totals so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Agree with others that water will be main impact. Both inland and along shore. Will also get quite a surge up Delaware Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z nam shows irene coming onshore around ocnj and going between phl and toms river, nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Historic flooding with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z nam shows irene coming onshore around ocnj and going between phl and toms river, nj I am gonna say it seems like the EURO and NAM have handled this the best so far through-out well short-term NAM but long-term EURO and its path as of the current movement seems to agree with the NAM's forecasting track per 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornado watch coming out for DE and NJ MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...DE...MD...NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271431Z - 271500Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED VERY SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND PARTS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE BAY TO COASTAL NJ. WATCH COORDINATION IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN THESE AREAS AND THE TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS IRENE TRACKS NWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. REFER TO LATEST NHC DISCUSSIONS AND HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hard to see, are those gusts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hard to see, are those gusts ? yea i know it is, i didnt know how to save it as a picture so i did a print scrn capture lol....sustained winds in kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.