phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I really wonder if NHC will hesitate to downgrade to TS status given the wide range of impacts the storm will still have They did with Floyd before final landfall and Floyd was a stronger storm coming in than this one. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/pub/PAL0899.037.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is telling... in fact, I don't recall NHC actually doing this prior to a landfalling hurricane before.... from the 5AM discussion: "THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is telling... in fact, I don't recall NHC actually doing this prior to a landfalling hurricane before.... from the 5AM discussion: "THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES." that's surprising to a point...I thought protocol was to do two hour advisories on a US hurricane landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Per the hard data and wunderground's map it's about 35 mph. thats in knots though on the gfs... so 35 would be around 40 mph sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 thats in knots though on the gfs hard data was 30 and 31 kts. Airport might sustain to 40 mph because of its location and its tendency to be a bit windier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What is PRE? I could not find it thru search function. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What is PRE? I could not find it thru search function. Thanks. Predecessor Rain Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Surprised at the downplaying of this threat by some of you guys. I still looks to me that we are in for some nasty business. The fact is sustained winds around 40 mph over a prolonged period can still leave a wide swath of extended power outages, not to mention the flooding...Just saying, some might read your remarks and start to let down their guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Don't say that. I just got to sea isle city. I want to experience hurricane force winds Why would u go to a barrier island that notorious floods during a thunderstorm and not be able to get out? That's karma for u...you should know better. We're hunkered down at a friends house just off of the island which is elevated if u need a place. PM me if u need and best of luck. Be safe! Btw, how did u get in? All access roads in have been closed since 8PM last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If it makes landfall in NC as a cat 1 as now seems likely... it also seems likely that there's little hope of it making it up to NJ as a hurricane. But, par for the course. if it takes the nhc track i can see that, but right now its been track a good bit west of nhc landfall which mean if stays west of the track heavier rain further west and the winds will weaken faster...but the winds would be stronger up here towards philly area if its further west....gfs now shows this, delaware bay it comes into now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 if it takes the nhc track i can see that, but right now its been track a good bit west of nhc landfall which mean if stays west of the track heavier rain further west and the winds will weaken faster...but the winds would be stronger up here towards philly area if its further west....gfs now shows this, delaware bay it comes into now Drink your coffee, Tom... the 6Z GFS is not in Delaware Bay It goes east of the DelMarVa to LBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Surprised at the downplaying of this threat by some of you guys. I still looks to me that we are in for some nasty business. The fact is sustained winds around 40 mph over a prolonged period can still leave a wide swath of extended power outages, not to mention the flooding...Just saying, some might read your remarks and start to let down their guard down. I have never, not for one second, downplayed the inland flooding aspect. However, the winds that some have been throwing around in the media are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Drink your coffee, Tom... the 6Z GFS is not in Delaware Bay It goes east of the DelMarVa to LBI. Correct. Both on SV maps and on wunderground. Center goes east of Cape May. I have never, not for one second, downplayed the inland flooding aspect. However, the winds that some have been throwing around in the media are unlikely. +1 -- the 100 mph talk on one station last night was overkill. Bodybuilder's 930 mb prediction for Hatteras was awful...like watching Howard swing and miss at a slider in the dirt. The flooding issue has been there and probably ends up being the "big" story of this storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The flooding issue has been there and probably ends up being the "big" story of this storm overall. I am tending to agree with you on this. Now only if we can get our radar working again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I am tending to agree with you on this. Now only if we can get our radar working again. Saw you write that this AM. Very good discussion as usual...I had my 1st cup of coffee while reading. Southland WX hit me over the head a few times with that point yesterday via email as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thankfully this storm seems to be taking a turn for the best (in terms of homes West of Rte 9 in South Jersey away from Del Bay). Looks like we will dodge a major bullet here folks. Agree with posters about inland flooding, but again, models are even faster moving Irene thru. This beats all the catastrophic talk from yesterday re: cat 2 storm, 90 mph winds, 20 inches rain, etc. As a homeowner in Cape May area, this makes me extremely happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 BTW, the thrust of rain is pretty much starting to come onshore into Cape May and the DE beaches...models want to throw some nasty QPF northwestward later today before the worst of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 BTW, the thrust of rain is pretty much starting to come onshore into Cape May and the DE beaches...models want to throw some nasty QPF northwestward later today before the worst of storm. Or as the man said in Backdraft, "Here comes your water!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 PHL has forecasted about 8" of rain to a location that is about 10 miles to my east while BGM has forecasted 3-4 of rain.. quite a disparity. Anyway, while this may not be the "worst" case scenario, it's still going to be a severe disaster for the entire state of NJ and NYC, RI, and CT... Don't downplay this.. the flooding itself is going to be historic in many, many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good morning all, decided not to head home to Long Island for a half-i-cane/tropical storm. Looks like she's about to make landfall. The amount of rain heading in our direction is nuts! I hope the end result is nothing like Oct. 1st, 2010.....I fear it will be, and maybe worse over a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I remain very very concerned about Cape May County and the shore points. I just purchased a home down in Sea Isle City and I expect all of the barrier islands (except Wildwood) to be covered from ocean to bay during the height of the storm. This remains a very serious situation. Thankfully this storm seems to be taking a turn for the best (in terms of homes West of Rte 9 in South Jersey away from Del Bay). Looks like we will dodge a major bullet here folks. Agree with posters about inland flooding, but again, models are even faster moving Irene thru. This beats all the catastrophic talk from yesterday re: cat 2 storm, 90 mph winds, 20 inches rain, etc. As a homeowner in Cape May area, this makes me extremely happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Winds down to 85 at 8 AM. I'm in Ray's camp...this might be a TS by the time it gets to AC. There's no real difference between 70-80 mph winds along the coast...still gonna suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wxsim has storm total rain here in NW Chester County of 5.68" (this may be underdone) as it has trended up almost an inch since yesterday. This may not get to the level of Floyd (my station recorded 8.28" of rain) but it looks likely to get relatively close The Wxsim only forecasts top wind gusts to 30mph (takes into account trees etc in my area) Rain totals By 7 pm 0.97" By 10pm 1.75" 2am - 3.33" 7am - 4.92" 10a - 5.50" 2pm - 5.68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Adding to the misery, I'd guess, is the amount of time the shore is facing a strong easterly fetch (who else remembers when we censored that word?). She's taking her sweet time getting here, so we're probably looking at a pretty impressive sea level rise relative to what you'd expect with a Cat 1 and major beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 JB just noted this is now 5mb deeper than Isabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like a slight jog to the left of the track, I add the lat. long. lines and only play first and last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I am tending to agree with you on this. Now only if we can get our radar working again. Mike, any status update on the radar is appreciated. Down for hours, days ? (hopefully not days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They getting rain down in jersey:? radar says so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 They getting rain down in jersey:? radar says so.. No rain here yet...just some mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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