jdt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can I ask a question? Will the storm surge be larger than a normal tropical storm due to the fact that this was a cat 3 at one point and its sheer size? Far from an expert but I would say the very large wind field would counter an over all weaker system with regards to max winds to some degree. I suspect, too, as she moves north and begins to interact with the upper jet flow to her north and north west this may also help to delay tropical weakening and help the expansive wind field hold or maybe even increase some as she begins a slow transition from fully tropical to hybrid to extra tropical. From a purely meteorlogical perspective it will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 i think if it still passes over us we get clobbered with rain, jersey though would be spared but further west wouldn't. There would be a lot around PHL, but the most rain would be west of PHL if it tracked over PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Far from an expert but I would say the very large wind field would counter an over all weaker system with regards to max winds to some degree. I suspect, too, as she moves north and begins to interact with the upper jet flow to her north and north west this may also help to delay tropical weakening and help the expansive wind field hold or maybe even increase some as she begins a slow transition from fully tropical to hybrid to extra tropical. From a purely meteorlogical perspective it will be interesting to watch. The wind field will expand as it transitions. However, this is part of why the winds diminish even with transitioning systems... the gradient has to relax a bit for the wind field to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Doesn't the heaviest rain usually fall west of the hurricane in Northeast? (e.g. Floyd, Jeanne's remnants). Is it possible that a track over Philly increases the wind but cuts back on the excessive rainfall totals? Or am I out to lunch? Yes, you are correct. Track over PHL itself would mean more wind, less rain for PHL. The worst wind would still be a bit east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There would be a lot around PHL, but the most rain would be west of PHL if it tracked over PHL. It seems to me the under reported story of Irene may end up being inland flooding from the torrentail rains on saturated areas. Just about all reporting has been on coastal impacts which is not to say those impacts will not be very significant if not major. But areas to the west and NW of the track such as western & NW NJ, eastern and NE PA, interior SE NY may see some very excessive rain falls on a upslope SE flow out ahead of Irene. Then all that water will also have to flow down through the basins which will also have very significant rainfall. Inland flooding may be huge in some in not may areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It seems to me the under reported story of Irene may end up being inland flooding from the torrentail rains on saturated areas. Just about all reporting has been on coastal impacts which is not to say those impacts will not be very significant if not major. But areas to the west and NW of the track such as western & NW NJ, eastern and NE PA, interior SE NY may see some very excessive rain falls on a upslope SE flow out ahead of Irene. Then all that water will also have to flow down through the basins which will also have very significant rainfall. Inland flooding may be huge in some in not may areas. Its the same old story. Everyone goes bonkers about the coastal effects and forgets that the rains can cause more damage than the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Its the same old story. Everyone goes bonkers about the coastal effects and forgets that the rains can cause more damage than the winds. Water always cause the most damage whether it is falling from the sky, over flowing a river bank or being pushed in from the ocean. Winds creates havoc but water causes the damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We've heard about the PRE potentially developing in front of Irene -- when would we expect to see it begin developing, if it is to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Its the same old story. Everyone goes bonkers about the coastal effects and forgets that the rains can cause more damage than the winds. this* as a FireFighter, i endorse your post. we see it all the time. then people will say bust. The biggest factor is that our area is already SUPER saturated. That doesn;t bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It seems to me the under reported story of Irene may end up being inland flooding from the torrentail rains on saturated areas. Just about all reporting has been on coastal impacts which is not to say those impacts will not be very significant if not major. But areas to the west and NW of the track such as western & NW NJ, eastern and NE PA, interior SE NY may see some very excessive rain falls on a upslope SE flow out ahead of Irene. Then all that water will also have to flow down through the basins which will also have very significant rainfall. Inland flooding may be huge in some in not may areas. You are absolutely right on this point. While the media is concerned about wind speed of Hurricane Irene, the municipalities and their emergency services are more concerned about flooding. The media gives the public the wrong perception of the wind hazard for this storm and of course the public forgets about the flooding threat because -----for a lot of people, it does not concern them or threaten them in their normal daily lives. Unfortunately that perception will change for many people on Sunday night into Tuesday when the rivers reach or exceed record levels. When they cannot get to work because of flooded roads, cross bridges because of structural damage, sewage and drinking water plants under water, sinkholes, mud slides and power outages, maybe they will have second thoughts. Of course then being too late, the media jumps in and plays up the flooding like they knew this was coming. Remember, the emergency managers of the municipalities affected by this storm or shutting things down not because of the possibility of high wind damage but also to the flooding and damage to the municipalities infrastructure and of course to the safety of those persons truly affected by this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 < lazy > What was the crest with Floyd? </ lazy > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 euro ftw also 0z nam coming in atleast 50 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looking at the hydrograph for the predictions for the Neshaminy @ Langhorne it says 12 feet. Floyd was around 20 feet. Something doesn't make sense. If 8" of rain fell after a drought (In 1999), and were expecting 10" of rain after a rainy August(Sunday); why isn't the levels higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 < lazy > What was the crest with Floyd? </ lazy > 42.13' - record highest, nearly 4' above the 2nd highest crest from APR 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 < lazy > What was the crest with Floyd? </ lazy > Floyd was 42.13 feet... so we have a ways to go to get to that, although I'm not really sure how accurate these forecasts tend to be. Some of them are pretty foreboding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looking at the hydrograph for the predictions for the Neshaminy @ Langhorne it says 12 feet. Floyd was around 20 feet. Something doesn't make sense. If 8" of rain fell after a drought (In 1999), and were expecting 10" of rain after a rainy August(Sunday); why isn't the levels higher? Common misconception is many people believe that Floyd was the 1999 drought buster when actually the drought was broken a month prior, locally in Lower Bucks during the month preceeding Floyd we rec'd 10.22" of rain. Real drought buster was a 4.4" monsoon during the late evening / early am - 8/14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z nam 2nd landfall AC......euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z nam 2nd landfall AC......euro ftw I read that the NAM initialized too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 tombo loves his euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'll be sure to take pictures of the eye as it passes overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 tombo loves his euro the euro never waffled like the gfs did.it insisted consistenly a track between phl and scraping the coast...the gfs did a good job, but it had several runs where it took it way east and we barely got any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I read that the NAM initialized too far west. About 0.2 degrees west. That's probably Tombo's 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I read that the NAM initialized too far west. ahh ok, well the srefs are in pretty good agreement with it...but yea the landfall looks pretty far west than current imagery..it looks like its gonna go between hse and moorehead city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 About 0.2 degrees west. That's probably Tombo's 50 miles lol ray.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011082612/images_d2/500vor.48.0000.gif The MM5 is on the euro train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 the euro never waffled like the gfs did.it insisted consistenly a track between phl and scraping the coast...the gfs did a good job, but it had several runs where it took it way east and we barely got any rain. Yup, Euro was right. I was led astray by the american models which had me believing a NC, then eastern LI landfall. Looks like I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 if this was winter ray would have a shrine to the euro up and running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I get this strange feeling that Irene will trend East of the models. She can't go any further west than modeled, so she can only go one direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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