RobbTC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Track came west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....kages/index.php It's the "current briefing". Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Out to 45 on Twister looks the same as 0Z 63 hr maybe a tad slower. A little east of 12z Precip. still looks the same 9" most of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dry air seems to be working into the core of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dry air seems to be working into the core of the storm. Pardon my newbness, what would that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pardon my newbness, what would that mean? Hopefully some weakening before it gets to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hopefully some weakening before it gets to NJ. Ah okay, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mt Holly thinking we may flood before the flood. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... INVERTED TROUGH MD TO NE PA NOW AND HEAVY CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THINK A PREDECESSOR RAIN MAY BE FORMING... BIG TIME RRQ 250 JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BIG PWAT AIR LAYING IN ACROSS E PA. MAY MODIFY FCST FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FASTER FLOOD WATCH FOR E PA W NJ MD AND DEL. MOVEMENT VERY SLOW THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IF THIS CONVECTION DOESNT DIE BY 9PM... FF PROBLEMS MAY BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL CK AGAIN AROUND 8P. ZONES UPDATED AROUND 505P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mt Holly thinking we may flood before the flood. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... INVERTED TROUGH MD TO NE PA NOW AND HEAVY CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THINK A PREDECESSOR RAIN MAY BE FORMING... BIG TIME RRQ 250 JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BIG PWAT AIR LAYING IN ACROSS E PA. MAY MODIFY FCST FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FASTER FLOOD WATCH FOR E PA W NJ MD AND DEL. MOVEMENT VERY SLOW THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IF THIS CONVECTION DOESNT DIE BY 9PM... FF PROBLEMS MAY BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL CK AGAIN AROUND 8P. ZONES UPDATED AROUND 505P. They've been howling all week on that threat. Props to them. Mt.holly storm already dropped close to an inch there per radar estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS slightly west Hr 12 compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anyone have FF guidance for mt.holly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anyone have FF guidance for mt.holly? here ya go http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Water/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS slightly west Hr 12 compared to 12Z GFS looks a tad west and a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like the NAM wants to lower the rain totals a bit in western NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i wonder if this thing comes in further west like through millville or across the bay...euro,ggem, ukmet all have west landfalls which would be bad for the sure and extra bad for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i wonder if this thing comes in further west like through millville or across the bay...euro,ggem, ukmet all have west landfalls which would be bad for the sure and extra bad for the city. From a flood standpoint I don't think it matters unless it goes 50 miles east of the coast. It's going to be bad. Winds won't be terrible inland...they will be bad but hurricane sustained won't happen in the city...I even doubt it gusts much above 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 From a flood standpoint I don't think it matters unless it goes 50 miles east of the coast. It's going to be bad. Winds won't be terrible inland...they will be bad but hurricane sustained won't happen in the city...I even doubt it gusts much above 60. even if this comes west and tracks over nj, further west than the nhc track has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Doesn't the heaviest rain usually fall west of the hurricane in Northeast? (e.g. Floyd, Jeanne's remnants). Is it possible that a track over Philly increases the wind but cuts back on the excessive rainfall totals? Or am I out to lunch? i wonder if this thing comes in further west like through millville or across the bay...euro,ggem, ukmet all have west landfalls which would be bad for the sure and extra bad for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Doesn't the heaviest rain usually fall west of the hurricane in Northeast? (e.g. Floyd, Jeanne's remnants). Is it possible that a track over Philly increases the wind but cuts back on the excessive rainfall totals? Or am I out to lunch? i think if it still passes over us we get clobbered with rain, jersey though would be spared but further west wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 even if this comes west and tracks over nj, further west than the nhc track has it? tracks farther west it's over land longer...that works against it as well. Given the way it looks it might very well be a halfacane when it gets here and probably 75-80 mph "max" winds just east of the center. The eye would have to go west of the city and haul a-- for them to get 'cane force, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i think if it still passes over us we get clobbered with rain, jersey though would be spared but further west wouldn't. If a tropical hurricane goes through you, you will get more rain than those on the left and right (on average). For Floyd and Jeanne and others that are transitioning to extratropical and being absorbed into a mid-latitude trough, the rain shield can be weighted to the left moreso than the right, although the center still gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Curious what MARFC does on their next update for river forecasts (9-10 pm tonight)? Their AM update had moderate flooding on the Schuylkill in Philadelphia, but their precip map was updated at 2 pm and showed 9-10" of rain over the City and just east, which I would imagine might up the flooding forecast See http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looking at the latest HPC map.... Wouldn't the downstream flooding on the Delaware be pretty horrible. There's a swath of 9-10" of rain straight up the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If it tracks further west it means more rainfall in the iver basins of the Delaware and Schuylkill. this would mean far worse flooding along those rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What can you say about the Neshaminy, and other creeks that empty out? What kind of threat level would you give them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can I ask a question? Will the storm surge be larger than a normal tropical storm due to the fact that this was a cat 3 at one point and its sheer size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/wv2_east_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If a tropical hurricane goes through you, you will get more rain than those on the left and right (on average). For Floyd and Jeanne and others that are transitioning to extratropical and being absorbed into a mid-latitude trough, the rain shield can be weighted to the left moreso than the right, although the center still gets clobbered. Actually usually the highest totals will be left of the track. Rainfall is usually lighter along the track itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can I ask a question? Will the storm surge be larger than a normal tropical storm due to the fact that this was a cat 3 at one point and its sheer size? I don't know if it having been cat 3 will matter since it will have been quite some time and distance ago by the time it arrives. The size will make a difference though (larger surge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What can you say about the Neshaminy, and other creeks that empty out? What kind of threat level would you give them? Very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.