Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 6z GFS rakes the area with a hurricane off the NJ coast. It would get nasty here, I would probably consider evacuating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The biggest implication of this storm potential is the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays backing up water into the inflowing rivers to the bays. The influx of fresh water intrusion into the Chesapeake Bay could also be a major problem for the fishery industry if the Susquehanna experiences extreme flooding. Secondary flooding affects for the Delaware River, Schuylkill River, Neshaminy Creek, Perkiomen Creek and Lehigh River should be a major concern as well. New Hope and other towns along the Delaware should be on alert by this weekend if the ideal track comes to fruition. I agree that a short wave combined with a washed out tropical storm in our area would be more disastrous with the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Partly cloudy and breezy per 12Z GFS west of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 7/100ths of an inch to go! ...PHILADELPHIAS WETTEST AUGUST MAY SOON BECOME AN ALL TIME WESTTEST MONTH ON RECORD... THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY HEAVY THIS MONTH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION, WHICH HAS LED TO AREAS OF FLOODING. THE RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THE RECORDS LIST AS WELL AT SOME SITES. THE FOLLOWING IS A RANKING OF SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA AND TRENTON, NEW JERSEY ARE NOW RANKED AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE TOP 10 WETTEST AUGUSTS. ...PHILADELPHIA... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 13.00 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 * 2) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 3) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 4) 10.29 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 5) 9.84 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 WETTEST MONTHS -------------- 1) 13.07 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1999 2) 13.00 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 * 3) 12.09 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1882 4) 11.50 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 5) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872. ...TRENTON... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 14.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1955 2) 11.98 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 3) 10.67 INCHES IN AUGUST 1902 4) 10.58 INCHES IN AUGUST 1910 5) 10.13 INCHES IN AUGUST 1901 6) 10.09 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 7) 10.07 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 8) 9.81 INCHES IN AUGUST 1904 9) 9.66 INCHES IN AUGUST 1921 10) 8.69 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 * RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1865. ...ALLENTOWN... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1955 2) 11.00 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 3) 9.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1928 4) 9.42 INCHES IN AUGUST 1974 5) 9.25 INCHES IN AUGUST 1971 6) 8.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1978 7) 8.74 INCHES IN AUGUST 1942 8) 8.43 INCHES IN AUGUST 1982 9) 7.76 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 * 10) 7.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1927 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1922. HERE ARE SOME MORE MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN AUGUST 2011. RAINFALL LOCATION COUNTY STATE SOURCE 14.35 UPR DEERFIELD 1.7 SW CUMBERLAND NJ COCORAHS 14.11 SEABROOK FARMS CUMBERLAND NJ COOP 13.99 HAMMONTON ATLANTIC NJ COOP 13.70 FRANKLIN TWP 2.7 W GLOUCESTER NJ COCORAHS 13.55 ROCKLEDGE 1.3 SE PHILADELPHIA PA COCORAHS 13.13 FREEHOLD TWP 1.0 WNW MONMOUTH NJ COCORAHS 13.08 PENNDEL 1.1 WSW BUCKS PA COCORAHS 12.81 PHILADELPHIA 4.7 NE PHILADELPHIA PA COCORAHS 12.80 NETHER PROV. 0.4 ESE DELAWARE PA COCORAHS 12.73 BERLIN TWP 0.6 WNW CAMDEN NJ COCORAHS 12.63 WINSLOW TWP 3.5 W CAMDEN NJ COCORAHS 12.31 ARDMORE 0.5 NW MONTGOMERY PA COCORAHS 12.27 PLYMOUTH MTG 1.5 ESE MONTGOMERY PA COCORAHS 11.90 CRANBURY TWP 1.4 SW MIDDLESEX NJ COCORAHS 11.80 SICKLERVILLE CAMDEN NJ MESONET 11.71 NESHAMINY FALLS BUCKS PA COOP 11.66 HOPE WARREN NJ MESONET 11.64 FRANKLIN TWP 4.5 NW SOMERSET NJ COCORAHS 11.61 BERNARDS TWP 0.7 NW SOMERSET NJ COCORAHS 11.54 OCEAN TWP 0.8 SE MONMOUTH NJ COCORAHS 11.48 GREENWICH TWP 1.3 NE CUMBERLAND NJ COCORAHS 11.40 HOWELL TWP 2.5 W MONMOUTH NJ COCORAHS 11.35 HILLSBOROUGH 4.7 ESE SOMERSET NJ COCORAHS 11.31 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO MONMOUTH NJ COOP 11.20 PRINCETON TWP 2.2 SSE MERCER NJ COCORAHS 11.18 HOLMDEL TWP 0.7 E MONMOUTH NJ COCORAHS 11.16 WOOLWICH TWP 3.2 SSE GLOUCESTER NJ COCORAHS 11.02 ATSION BURLINGTON NJ COOP 10.97 BURLINGTON 1.7 E BURLINGTON NJ COCORAHS 10.96 CONSHOHOCKEN MONTGOMERY PA COOP 10.94 HIGHTSTOWN MERCER NJ COOP 10.85 MONTGOMERY TWP 3.0 NE SOMERSET NJ COCORAHS 10.72 BLACKBIRD - NERR STN NEW CASTLE DE DEOS 10.71 MANTUA TWP 1.5 E GLOUCESTER NJ COCORAHS 10.62 WOODSTOWN 0.6 NW SALEM NJ COCORAHS 10.60 DENVILLE TWP 2.0 NNE MORRIS NJ COCORAHS 10.58 PALMERTON 3.9 NE CARBON PA COCORAHS 10.51 CHAPMAN 6.6 NW CARBON PA COCORAHS 10.51 FRANKLIN INSTITUTE PHILADELPHIA PA COOP 10.43 MONTGOMERY TWP 1.8 NNE SOMERSET NJ COCORAHS 10.40 TOWNSEND - REC STN NEW CASTLE DE DEOS 10.22 EWING TWP 0.8 ESE MERCER NJ COCORAHS 10.18 PALMERTON 5.8 NE CARBON PA COCORAHS 10.11 CLAYTON 6.6 W NEW CASTLE DE COCORAHS 10.09 RED BANK 1.3 NW MONMOUTH NJ COCORAHS 10.04 RANDOLPH TWP 0.8 W MORRIS NJ COCORAHS 9.99 CREAM RIDGE MONMOUTH NJ MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Partly cloudy and breezy per 12Z GFS west of I95. More like west of I81 Folks from ABE to Lancaster receive over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 More like west of I81 Folks from ABE to Lancaster receive over an inch Sharp cutoff -- ten bucks says that the cutoff would be even sharper than how the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 the nam 12z 84hr.... caution ... WAY past its range / limits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's a very Floyd-like track but a bit slower. I distinctly remeber Floyd in Sept 99 being proceeded by flooding rounds of T storms in August. Fortunately, that basement flooding got me installing a pump and waterproofing just before Floyd arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 euro brings irene over lanc and abe...heaviest rain in central pa..del reiver west 3 plus inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'll be excited if we only get 2 inches of rain out of this. After 9 inches in the last 8 days, I can live with that. Just curious - what is the max it is showing for central pa? euro brings irene over lanc and abe...heaviest rain in central pa..del reiver west 2 plus inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'll be excited if we only get 2 inches of rain out of this. After 9 inches in the last 8 days, I can live with that. Just curious - what is the max it is showing for central pa? its actually 3 plus inches from del river west...max 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's a lot of rain but 3 is better than 8-10 ala Floyd. its actually 3 plus inches from del river west...max 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's a lot of rain but 3 is better than 8-10 ala Floyd. I wouldn't rule anything out yet..."shock and awe" to "partly cloudy and breezy" (and everywhere in btwn) are still all on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm not. Just ordered a gas generator as a backup to my battery backup for the sump pump. Prepping for shock and awe. Hoping for Partly Cloudy and Breezy. I wouldn't rule anything out yet..."shock and awe" to "partly cloudy and breezy" (and everywhere in btwn) are still all on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm not. Just ordered a gas generator as a backup to my battery backup for the sump pump. Prepping for shock and awe. Hoping for Partly Cloudy and Breezy. Wow, good call. I don't have any redundancy built into our sump pump. I will have to remedy that this week...My actions will of course dictate the outcome. The more $$$ I spend on preparation, the further out to sea it will go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here's a good battery backup system. http://www.amazon.com/Zoeller-507-0005-Zoeller-507-0005-Basement-Sentry-Battery-Backup-Pump/dp/B0009T84V4 If you are going to be home to switch over in the event of an outage, you can get a 4000W gas generator for under $400, but you need a dry place outdoors to run it. http://www.amazon.com/Champion-Equipment-46534-Generator-Compliant/dp/B00295QCRO/ref=sr_1_3?s=hi&ie=UTF8&qid=1314040143&sr=1-3 Wow, good call. I don't have any redundancy built into our sump pump. I will have to remedy that this week...My actions will of course dictate the outcome. The more $$ I spend on preparation, the further out to sea it will go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow, good call. I don't have any redundancy built into our sump pump. I will have to remedy that this week...My actions will of course dictate the outcome. The more $$$ I spend on preparation, the further out to sea it will go... You can always return it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 still could make the 2010 earl turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here's a good battery backup system. http://www.amazon.co...p/dp/B0009T84V4 If you are going to be home to switch over in the event of an outage, you can get a 4000W gas generator for under $400, but you need a dry place outdoors to run it. http://www.amazon.co...14040143&sr=1-3 Good stuff, thank you for the links... Nowhere for a generator outdoors just yet, but I am planning to build a shed in the yard next year, so I could provision to store it in there (with the proper ventilation of course). May I ask where you are planning to store yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You can always return it. ;-) LOL, then I can REALLY tempt fate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nowhere either. My hope is that, in the event of an outage, the battery backup will hold things over until the rain is gone. It is rated for 7 hours of continuous running. I'd put the generator up after the storm (really a backup in case we have a long outage, which is always possible in a TS.) Plan B if the battery does not last is manually emptying the sump using buckets. If it's worse than that, I guess plan C is re-finishing the basement after it floods. Good stuff, thank you for the links... Nowhere for a generator outdoors just yet, but I am planning to build a shed in the yard next year, so I could provision to store it in there (with the proper ventilation of course). May I ask where you are planning to store yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A battery is only going to last so long too in the event of a power loss. I got a backup system that runs off of the water line in the house and drains through the sewer lines. It requires no power at all and runs off of suction created by the running water in your house. Its expensive but it works well and you never have to worry about losing power and then battery. Wow, good call. I don't have any redundancy built into our sump pump. I will have to remedy that this week...My actions will of course dictate the outcome. The more $$$ I spend on preparation, the further out to sea it will go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 These are helpful too. http://www.amazon.com/Zircon-Leak-Alert-Electronic-Batteries/dp/B002Q8GRPG/ref=pd_bxgy_hi_img_c Nowhere either. My hope is that, in the event of an outage, the battery backup will hold things over until the rain is gone. It is rated for 7 hours of continuous running. I'd put the generator up after the storm (really a backup in case we have a long outage, which is always possible in a TS.) Plan B if the battery does not last is manually emptying the sump using buckets. If it's worse than that, I guess plan C is re-finishing the basement after it floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 These are helpful too. http://www.amazon.co...d_bxgy_hi_img_c You can run generators in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 yea, still a long ways to go and lots can change, but thats not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 yea, still a long ways to go and lots can change, but thats not good I don't need to see this. Make it go away, kthnx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 ill take a humid partly cloudy and breezy weekend please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 i would imagine with that track and strength there is some pretty strong winds esp at the jerz coast and inland...12z gfs which was way offshore brought 25-30 mph sustained winds to kphl.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 per gfs extracted output..still showing 25-30 mph sustained..backed off on acy, where the 12z had them sustained at tropical storm force, 18z keeps them under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 this is the big issue, especially the immediate phl metro area. Granted we will have a couple days to relax the rivers and what not so these numbers will drop. But their on thursday and friday tstorms come back into the picture which could raise everything back to where they are now, then we see what happens with irene which could be bad. 1hr ffw guidance 3hr ffg 6hr ffg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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