greg ralls Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Will there be anyother briefing from Mt. Holly? Where do you find those on their website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeh, me too and our local wiz-bang local media isn't really doing a good job either. You can't rely on WFMZ, they are pretty awful. The Delaware and Lehigh flood at the drop of a hat these days.. Yea, WFMZ's weather crew usually leans on the more conservative side. Only once the storms are done and over with will they admit they underplayed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12Z GFS is faster than 6Z and a smidge east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Your about right. As for destroying homes? Anything is possible (knocking a tree down, crashing into the roof, etc.) but the actual force of the wind probably won't do much, depending on your foundation of course..lol Yeah I think the biggest problem will be even if we don't see Hurrricane force winds and see 45-50 mph gust trees will go down. There was a tree yesterday that just fell. I also remember the morning of floyd going to school there were 2 trees down and I don't believe there had been any strong winds at that time. When you have saturated ground with trees having all of their leaves. I think this will be the biggest problem for philly metro outside of course the actual rain and flooding. Thats just my 2 cents anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12Z GFS is faster than 6Z and a smidge east... Close to 18z but less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 also, irene wind field is absolutely huge, so while it may not be a major hurricane, hurricane force winds go out a ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 quick hitter on the NAM and GFS. 12-15 hours or so. Typical for tropical systems this far north. Maybe some pm sunshine on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on when PHL may be impacted or close? I have friends flying in from the GA on Saturday early evening About then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 quick hitter on the NAM and GFS. 12-15 hours or so. Typical for tropical systems this far north. Maybe some pm sunshine on Sunday. Verbatim it starts at 3pm Saturday in Philly and ends around 2pm Sunday and the GFS is on the fast side of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For those interest JB has the storm at 945mb (27.97") - record low pressure!! at 39.6 N and 74.8 west at 1pm Sunday afternoon....this is shaping up to be a truly historic storm He was predicting 930 near Hatteras...he will miss on that by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anything is possible (knocking a tree down, crashing into the roof, etc.) but the actual force of the wind probably won't do much, depending on your foundation of course..lol That was my biggest concern, since I do have some big trees right beside my condo. Usually the wind blows away from my home, so when they fall over they go the other way. But with the winds maybe coming in from the N or maybe NE I was a bit more worried. That and I was concerned about being without power for 1-2 weeks... lol. A lot of times the western half of these things are weak relative to the east side... and she looks to be weakening some over the past couple hours. Things definitely look more optimistic than yesterday. Maybe a weak cat 1 by the time it gets up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 also, irene wind field is absolutely huge, so while it may not be a major hurricane, hurricane force winds go out a ways You likely won't see hurricane force sustained into Philly unless ths goes 50 miles west of progged track. Large wind field but storm skill not be 105 to 40n...may be 85, perhaps 90 mph max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That was my biggest concern, since I do have some big trees right beside my condo. Usually the wind blows away from my home, so when they fall over they go the other way. But with the winds maybe coming in from the N or maybe NE I was a bit more worried. That and I was concerned about being without power for 1-2 weeks... lol. A lot of times the western half of these things are weak relative to the east side... and she looks to be weakening some over the past couple hours. Things definitely look more optimistic than yesterday. Maybe a weak cat 1 by the time it gets up here? You have to take into account the size of the wind field of this storm, it would most likely have stronger winds over a greater distance than a regular sized storm. Even 60 mph gusts could knock out a lot of power with the saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 quick hitter on the NAM and GFS. 12-15 hours or so. Typical for tropical systems this far north. Maybe some pm sunshine on Sunday. We have shut down operations on Sunday for Irene. I was on a conference call and reports are 100 mph winds for NNJ and NYC per local news from the emergency planner. worst flooding in 100 years is expected I was informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We have shut down operations on Sunday for Irene. I was on a conference call and reports are 100 mph winds for NNJ and NYC per local news from the emergency planner. worst flooding in 100 years is expected I was informed. This is a very, very massive storm in both scope and size. Ultimately won't know what will happen until its right off our coastline. Could it come and go within a 12-hr window? Sure, it's possible. Could it hang around for 18+ hours, sure thats possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 also, irene wind field is absolutely huge, so while it may not be a major hurricane, hurricane force winds go out a ways NHC is predicting cat 1 abeam of NJ. Maybe that will change. However, given forward momentum plus friction over land, it will be difficult to get hurricane force gusts away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My in-laws have mobile home in Cape May Court House. Any guesses what they will come back to next week? ~D~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We have shut down operations on Sunday for Irene. I was on a conference call and reports are 100 mph winds for NNJ and NYC per local news from the emergency planner. worst flooding in 100 years is expected I was informed. 10 inches of rain in 12 hours would be a disaster in Jersey for sure. Add 50-75 winds and Sunday won't be too enjoyable, even if the sunshine is back out by 3 or 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is a very, very massive storm in both scope and size. Ultimately won't know what will happen until its right off our coastline. Could it come and go within a 12-hr window? Sure, it's possible. Could it hang around for 18+ hours, sure thats possible as well. Having been through hurricanes in Mississippi, I can tell you that duration of the storm means little. When you have 10 inches of rain throughout the entire watershed, it takes time to reach the mouth of the river. Flooding will last days. Wind is still a factor because of trees falling as the result of saturated soils will happen even when the storm has passed. Honestly, the biggest nightmare of this hurricane will be the traffic jams from road closures from flooding and power outages from tree limbs falling and blowing around especially Sunday and Monday morning. Traffic engineers will now know the importance of mast arms rather than wires for traffic signals. Lastly, this storm will be remembered for flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think the Delaware will flood on the level of 2004-5-6. Only because upstream won't see the excessive rainfall downstream will. Thee will still be a flood. Just not an epic one, imo. Of course, I've been known to be wrong before too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think the Delaware will flood on the level of 2004-5-6. Only because upstream won't see the excessive rainfall downstream will. Thee will still be a flood. Just not an epic one, imo. Of course, I've been known to be wrong before too. The Delaware didn't flood in Floyd but had a very large rise. We're starting out much wetter than pre-Floyd (while there were heavy rains in August 1999, for the most part they weren't within 2-3 weeks of Floyd's impact which was mid September). Of greater concern is smaller basins, Lehigh, Raritan, Passaic, etc... I would get the hell away from any of these rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nutter speaking to press now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Having been through hurricanes in Mississippi, I can tell you that duration of the storm means little. When you have 10 inches of rain throughout the entire watershed, it takes time to reach the mouth of the river. Flooding will last days. Wind is still a factor because of trees falling as the result of saturated soils will happen even when the storm has passed. Honestly, the biggest nightmare of this hurricane will be the traffic jams from road closures from flooding and power outages from tree limbs falling and blowing around especially Sunday and Monday morning. Traffic engineers will now know the importance of mast arms rather than wires for traffic signals. Lastly, this storm will be remembered for flash flooding. For smaller basins, Lehigh, Raritan, Passaic, etc, the worst flooding will probably be Monday, assuming the current timing of the heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday morning is accurate. Traffic will be a nightmare at least through Wednesday. PS - NJDOT doesn't use wires for traffic lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 State of Emergency has been declared in Pennsylvania per Gov. Tom Corbett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think the Delaware will flood on the level of 2004-5-6. Only because upstream won't see the excessive rainfall downstream will. Thee will still be a flood. Just not an epic one, imo. Of course, I've been known to be wrong before too. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nutter... ALL SEPTA WILL BE SHUT DOWN MIDNIGHT SAT.... WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just for kicks here is the MM5 12Z http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.slp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nutter... ALL SEPTA WILL BE SHUT DOWN MIDNIGHT SAT.... WOW link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2011/08/26/philadelphia-and-surrounding-counties-making-hurricane-emergency-plans/ SEPTA said it will be suspending service on all bus, trolley, subway and train lines in the five-county area as of 12:30AM Sunday morning. The transit agency said it would resume service after the storm passed and the situation could be evaluated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nutter Butter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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