Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The one saving grace west of the city may be that there's a rather sharp QPF cutoff between Coatesville/Reading and Lancaster...not sure how far west/east that cutoff gets but wouldn't surprise me if western Berks gets less than an inch while Pottstown gets 5". What your storm total QPF for various locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What your storm total QPF for various locations? http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2011/08/irene-sets-out-for-date-at-shore.html This is last night's call -- probably will nudge it lower in western Berks when I revise it for good tomorrow AM. Rest of it stays very close except I'm think winds gust 50-60 along I-95 instead of to 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2011/08/irene-sets-out-for-date-at-shore.html This is last night's call -- probably will nudge it lower in western Berks when I revise it for good tomorrow AM. Rest of it stays very close except I'm think winds gust 50-60 along I-95 instead of to 65. Good forecast Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://philadelphiaw...e-at-shore.html This is last night's call -- probably will nudge it lower in western Berks when I revise it for good tomorrow AM. Rest of it stays very close except I'm think winds gust 50-60 along I-95 instead of to 65. Is that your blog? Very nice if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://philadelphiaw...e-at-shore.html This is last night's call -- probably will nudge it lower in western Berks when I revise it for good tomorrow AM. Rest of it stays very close except I'm think winds gust 50-60 along I-95 instead of to 65. very nice read Tom. It's hard to argue with your numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://philadelphiaw...e-at-shore.html This is last night's call -- probably will nudge it lower in western Berks when I revise it for good tomorrow AM. Rest of it stays very close except I'm think winds gust 50-60 along I-95 instead of to 65. If everything stays on course they look like right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Widespread >8" is likely from Chesco east to the shore... wherever the def bands set up will see 15"+ Implies some will see 25+" this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 9z SREF mean shifted west and got a little slower. All of the area sees 3+" of rain and the cutoff doesn't happen till you get to around Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i wouldnt write this off yet for ppl west of 95...so far through 6z everything is nudging west again...hwrf came a good bit west and is in line with the gfs...the experimental hwrf agrees with the gfdl and ukmet that bring this up the ches bay and over philly...euro comes into cape may...canadian is a coastal scraper...9z srefs now show landfall just north of ac...the 6z gfs ticked west a little. If the gfs comes in west a little again at 12z wouldnt surprise me the nhc trends back to the west again... things can still get worse than they are or they can get better. this isnt a winter storm we a re dealing with here, these systems are very volitile and can change quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For those interest JB has the storm at 945mb (27.97") - record low pressure!! at 39.6 N and 74.8 west at 1pm Sunday afternoon....this is shaping up to be a truly historic storm Be safe all Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 through 21 hrs nam is coming in nw of 6z position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 through 27 hrs nam good bit west...landfall over moorehead city maybe a hair east...6z was hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 OCMD landfall at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is every instance the storms emerges and goes back over land considered "landfall"? Or is it just the 'first' instance where the eye goes over land? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is every instance the storms emerges and goes back over land considered "landfall"? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The NAM is far more bullish with precp. then the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nam is right on the coast, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM at 10AM sunday. Do not like w trend. This is only an hour or two after high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am heading down to the Country Inn and Suites in Absecon tomorrow morning early to ride out the storm. My family has a house in Brigantine. We are praying it survives what may be a heck of a high tide Saturday evening and again Sunday morning. The Country Inn and Suites is about 1 mile outside the current evacuation zone to the West of Rt. 9. I think it is far enough from the bay to be safe. I have to believe when they calculated the evacuation zone that they were conservative...so Country Inn and Suites it is. Is anyone from that area that might be able to tell me the safest place to park my truck. I am wondering if the hotel parking lot is elevated enough.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is how rare this event is, this is a map off all known tracks and strenghts of storms. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#app=3d30&3e3d-selectedIndex=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on when PHL may be impacted or close? I have friends flying in from the GA on Saturday early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Terrible flooding in Philly, north, and in NJ/DE, and wind greater at the shore, but less in the city depending on what Irene does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest QPF Map from HPC: Creates 10+ inches area in South Central Jersey, Expands 7-9 inch area slightly. The Delaware Watershed and Raritan River looks to be in very serious trouble. I would hope Easton and New Hope starts evacuations of their downtown areas tomorrow. A few of the bridges that cross the Delaware may be affected also. Backwater from the Delaware Bay is going to make this flooding worse. The long duration of flooding will really do some damage to the entire canal system. The typical streams like the Neshaminy and Perkiomen will cause traffic nightmares on Monday and property damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm becoming quite eerily concerned about us Easton folks; on the delaware, low-lying roads and buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm having a hard time resisting the temptation to let my guard down. Flooding will be a problem but I think the winds shouldn't be too bad, except at the shore. I'm glad I'm prepared, but I'm not nearly as worried as I was yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm having a hard time resisting the temptation to let my guard down. Flooding will be a problem but I think the winds shouldn't be too bad, except at the shore. I'm glad I'm prepared, but I'm not nearly as worried as I was yesterday afternoon. I am expecting 30-50 mph gusts even where I am in Berks County, Pa. Is that too high? That won't destroy a house, but I certainly expect my power to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am expecting 30-50 mph gusts even where I am in Berks County, Pa. Is that too high? That won't destroy a house, but I certainly expect my power to go out. Your about right. As for destroying homes? Anything is possible (knocking a tree down, crashing into the roof, etc.) but the actual force of the wind probably won't do much, depending on your foundation of course..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeh, me too and our local wiz-bang local media isn't really doing a good job either. You can't rely on WFMZ, they are pretty awful. The Delaware and Lehigh flood at the drop of a hat these days.. Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm becoming quite eerily concerned about us Easton folks; on the delaware, low-lying roads and buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My old house survived 1938 and 1955, I think I will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.