Voyager Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like the NHC shifted the track slightly eastward overnight. Now Irene skirts the coastline with a grazing "landfall" at Atlantic City instead of going through the Pine Barrens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 These models are still clueless. We went from >4.00" to <0.25" rain from 18z to 0z on the NAM... Regardless of where it ends up, the western edge will be very sharp..I don't envy the NWS/NHC forecasters on this one. I-81 always gets the shaft. It's been this way for quite awhile now with regard to major storm events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Tight gradient + relatively modest track shift = big change in end result. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth in about 48 hours from some because they didn't get the worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Upgrade to Hurricane Warning now for the entire coast of the CWA. Not taking any chances. Cannot remember ever being under an official warning for a hurricane before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Upgrade to Hurricane Warning now for the entire coast of the CWA. Not taking any chances. As they shouldn't. The warnings are probably broken down as they should be IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth in about 48 hours from some because they didn't get the worst case. I suspect you are quite correct... noticed she isn't looking all that great this morning and NHC dropped it to strong cat 2. Seems weird given the 942 central pressure, but given the large size, the gradient probably isn't as strong as you might normally expect in a normal-sized hurricane. I suspect this will also make a difference up the coast, where despite a very low pressure, winds may not be as strong as some fear. Gloria was 961 mb at landfall on LI, btw... something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here's Gloria's rainfall and track... note it was cat 1/cat 2 when it passed NJ and made landfall with 961 mb pressure on LI... most of NJ didn't gust to hurricane force (TTN peak gust was 52 mph). Still enough to bring some trees and power lines down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z gfs coming in west of 0z run just east of 0z euro track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 im riding the euros track till i rot lol...coming into cape may or coastal scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z gfs coming in west of 0z run just east of 0z euro track.. Really starting to think the EC has been too far west all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also it appears the 6Z GFS initialized it a smidge too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here's Gloria's rainfall and track... note it was cat 1/cat 2 when it passed NJ and made landfall with 961 mb pressure on LI... most of NJ didn't gust to hurricane force (TTN peak gust was 52 mph). Still enough to bring some trees and power lines down... True. I will say even with winds that didn't max out over 90 mph on Long island in Gloria, it did knock out power for 1-2 weeks in some areas (8 days for me). Tree damage was substancial too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I suspect you are quite correct... noticed she isn't looking all that great this morning and NHC dropped it to strong cat 2. Seems weird given the 942 central pressure, but given the large size, the gradient probably isn't as strong as you might normally expect in a normal-sized hurricane. I suspect this will also make a difference up the coast, where despite a very low pressure, winds may not be as strong as some fear. Gloria was 961 mb at landfall on LI, btw... something to think about. I asked about that in the main forum -- Earl had a low pressure (950's IIRC) but couldn't produce a wind gust higher than a fart outside of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod because the ambient pressure on the East Coast was rather low and there was no real gradient on the north/west side between Earl and a high (in fact I don't think there was a real surface high nearby). I kinda worry that's an issue here. Might be a nasty storm but wouldn't surprise me if Irene final landfalls on LI with 65-70 mph max winds and 950's pressure. I've hedged my wind predictions to 80 mph gusts at the Shore, 50-60 mph gusts on I-95, lower inland -- and I'm probably too high I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I-81 always gets the shaft. It's been this way for quite awhile now with regard to major storm events. The shaft? Why would anyone want 8 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I asked about that in the main forum -- Earl had a low pressure (950's IIRC) but couldn't produce a wind gust higher than a fart outside of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod because the ambient pressure on the East Coast was rather low and there was no real gradient on the north/west side between Earl and a high (in fact I don't think there was a real surface high nearby). I kinda worry that's an issue here. Might be a nasty storm but wouldn't surprise me if Irene final landfalls on LI with 65-70 mph max winds and 950's pressure. I've hedged my wind predictions to 80 mph gusts at the Shore, 50-60 mph gusts on I-95, lower inland -- and I'm probably too high I think. I don't think your prediction is unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 True. I will say even with winds that didn't max out over 90 mph on Long island in Gloria, it did knock out power for 1-2 weeks in some areas (8 days for me). Tree damage was substancial too. Were you living on LI then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Were you living on LI then? Yup. Islip Terrace, NY. My parents are still there, I'm probably heading there Saturday morning. My grandparents lived, and still live near the Great South Bay in Lindenhurst. Actually on a canal that leads into the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i like what i'm reading this am. hope the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup. Islip Terrace, NY. My parents are still there, I'm probably heading there Saturday morning. well have fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 well have fun Yeah. If I go, I'll enjoy it. Problem is, I don't want to leave my house here in Pennsylvania "if"" things are nasty here. . I'm hoping its just alot of rain here in the NW Philly burbs and 20-30 mph winds....if it looks more extreme here, then I won't feel comfortable leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 only under a tropical storm warning in Somerset County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think your prediction is unreasonable. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Morning AFD from Mount Holly, nice writeup Mike. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --**DAMAGING AFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IRENE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION.** EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR THIS LARGE STORM AS NOW IS THE TIME. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE, LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY EVACUATIONS AND KEEP UPDATED ON THE WEATHER FORECASTS. SOME EVACUATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THE 5 AM NHC ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO OUR WIND GRIDS. IN ADDITION, THE EARLIER WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS WITH SOME NEW WATCHES ADDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. PLEASE NOTE THAT HUNTERDON COUNTY, NEW JERSEY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH, HOWEVER DUE A SOFTWARE GLITCH IT IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE HLS PRODUCT. WE HOPE TO GET THIS CORRECT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE EXPECT EXTENSIVE IMPACTS FROM THIS HURRICANE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK JUST INLAND, ON THE COAST OR ABOUT 50 MILES OFFSHORE. THE PEAK OF THE STORM LOOKS TO GENERALLY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT THERE IS A RATHER HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY AND POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AMONG THE MODELS WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH SOME DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, WE WILL HAVE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE FINER DETAILS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE CENTER TRACKS, WHICH INCLUDES THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE. THE FIRST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE HURRICANE, ALTHOUGH SOME TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH TIME. ANY LAND INTERACTION PRIOR TO THE HURRICANE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN IT, HOWEVER WE ARE ANTICIPATING RAIN AND INCREASING WIND TO ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE CENTER. THIS WILL BE COURTEOUS OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT IN PLACE AND A WEALTH OF MOISTURE SURGING INLAND FROM A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. THE FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE IRENE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE INCOMING TROUGH IS CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE HURRICANES TRACK. THIS IS DANGEROUS AS A LATER TIMING IN THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOME MORE WILL TEND TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST. OUR WIND FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE GRIDDED WIND FIELD FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE UPDATED WITH SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY ISSUANCES. WE GENERALLY BASED OUR POPS MORE TOWARD A BLEND WHICH ENDS UP SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IF THE CENTER TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE COAST, THEN THERE MAY BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. IF THE STORM SHIFTS TO AN INLAND TRACK, THEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RISK OF IMPACTS WITH THIS HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND BATTERING WAVES AND BEACH EROSION. FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ASPECT, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE HURRICANE GAINES LATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND INTERACTIONS, PERHAPS THIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY INSISTS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A POWERFUL ONE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT BECOMES EVEN MORE OF AN INTENSITY FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TROPICAL CYCLONES GET THIS FAR NORTH AND INTERACT WITH BAROCLINIC ZONES AND LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AN EXAMINATION OF THE WIND FIELD AT 925 MB IS CONCERNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF 60 TO NEARLY 85 KNOTS RACKING ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE WIND DOWN SOME AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOVE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MIXING WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN/CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING GUSTS. WE CONTINUE TO USE A 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS TO DERIVE OUR GUSTS BUT CAPPED THEM AT 90 KNOTS /20 PERCENT REDUCTION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER LAND/. THE WIND GUST TOOL THAT INCLUDES MIXING MAY BE TO HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FARTHER INLAND. THERE SEEMS TO BE A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY END UP MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED AS IT GETS TO OUR CWA. WE THEREFORE STARTED TO TAPER THE POPS DOWN A BIT FASTER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY. ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. OVERALL A MUCH CALMER TIME FRAME MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT OUR REGION TUESDAY, WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE EAST THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Great Disco. by Gorse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest QPF Map from HPC: Creates 10+ inches area in South Central Jersey, Expands 7-9 inch area slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks That's what I put out today, Tom, except I went with hurricane force sustained at Cape May and Atlantic City at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fantastic disco, Mike. That is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here's Gloria's rainfall and track... note it was cat 1/cat 2 when it passed NJ and made landfall with 961 mb pressure on LI... most of NJ didn't gust to hurricane force (TTN peak gust was 52 mph). Still enough to bring some trees and power lines down... We had almost 8" of rain with Glora. Much well before the winds arrived. Before Gloria it was very dry. Completely different now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We had almost 8" of rain with Glora. Much well before the winds arrived. Before Gloria it was very dry. Completely different now. The one saving grace west of the city may be that there's a rather sharp QPF cutoff between Coatesville/Reading and Lancaster...not sure how far west/east that cutoff gets but wouldn't surprise me if western Berks gets less than an inch while Pottstown gets 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Widespread >8" is likely from Chesco east to the shore... wherever the def bands set up will see 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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