MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mike, I didn't see any insight in the afd on rainfall amounts within the region olther to say heavy rain with flooding potential. Can you provide your unofficial insight to us on amounts? That is contained in the HLS text product. It looks like we have 6-12 inches of rain mentioned. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=HLS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That is contained in the HLS text product. It looks like we have 6-12 inches of rain mentioned. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=0 Thanks, but is the 12" likely in PA, NJ, or localized near the coast? I imagine that the 6" is for Schuykill County, but what about the rest of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That is contained in the HLS text product. It looks like we have 6-12 inches of rain mentioned. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=0 Edit: I must say the obligatory, "if only it were snow". 5-10 feet sounds like a Sierra forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks, but is the 12" likely in PA, NJ, or localized near the coast? I imagine that the 6" is for Schuykill County, but what about the rest of us? It will really depend on the track. What we are carrying at this point is 6-12 inches of rain across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 from Mt.Hollys snippet from the hurricane watch: ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 62 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 from Mt.Hollys snippet from the hurricane watch: ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 62 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON Keep in mind these probabilities are from the NHC based on their forecast track and uncertainty cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC official forecast has an identical track to Floyd. The track may be similar to floyd, but the predicted wind of Irene is almost double what floyd delivered. Floyd had 40-55 knots, which is about that of a strong noreaster.This has the potential to be much worse. Great write up though by Gary-only thing I would add is to remind people of astronomical tides.People living on the coast know what I mean....they are just more extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 from Mt.Hollys snippet from the hurricane watch: ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 62 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON If by "hurricane conditions" it is referring to sustained hurricane force winds, then that's probably accurate. Sustained winds are always significantly lower over land. Friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mike thanks for the link to the press briefing...interesting and scary stuff... I will still be in the Wyoming Valley tomorrow probably covering storm preps for WNEP viewing area in the Wilkes-Barre area... so I will be dealing with our friends up in NWS Bing. But will be making it down to the shore friday night. We can only hope the center passes around 2pm...because that would be at the low tide cycle... I still dont like the looks of what could happen to our beautiful beaches....especially asbury park, which is my beach of choice and which has experienced such a come back in the last 7 years going from desolation and despair to a thriving summer beach community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If by "hurricane conditions" it is referring to sustained hurricane force winds, then that's probably accurate. Sustained winds are always significantly lower over land. Friction. Yea, that makes sense. I just put it out there for people to see. I was more or less surprised to see that conditions could get tropical by as early as Sat afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 They all bring a lot of rain into the interior, where I am at. 0z NAM looks like it's coming in a little further east with the precip field. 0z model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have a link to the WFO mt.Holly slideshow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have a link to the WFO mt.Holly slideshow? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does anyone one know has the Philly water authority released water from Green Lane Reservoir yet for this event. I really hope they do otherwise the Perkiomen is really going to flood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf That wind speed map, is that gusts or sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That wind speed map, is that gusts or sustained? Wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM shifted east. Go east Irene, go east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Compared to 18z I would not say it shifted as much east, as it just sped up. Looks similar in track. Nevermind, you are right, it did shift 50-75 miles east and is faster. NAM shifted east. Go east Irene, go east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That wind speed map, is that gusts or sustained? Sustained in knots. The gusts map shows about 10 knots higher. You can use this tool here to flip through the forecast: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/phi.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 These models are still clueless. We went from >4.00" to <0.25" rain from 18z to 0z on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 These models are still clueless. We went from >4.00" to <0.25" rain from 18z to 0z on the NAM... Tight gradient + relatively modest track shift = big change in end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Regardless of where it ends up, the western edge will be very sharp..I don't envy the NWS/NHC forecasters on this one. Tight gradient + relatively modest track shift = big change in end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 gfs is the same as 18z maybe a hair west...also stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah i was just to post, remarkably similar runs...... gfs is the same as 18z maybe a hair west...also stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 most of the tropical mets have said the nam is a worthless model to use..stick with the globals on tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 gfs is the same as 18z maybe a hair west...also stronger Its faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its faster. yea that is one common theme tonight everything has been sped up by a good 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 any surprise that the pressure dropped down to 942? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We may be rain free by Noon/early afternoon Sunday yea that is one common theme tonight everything has been sped up by a good 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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