Parsley Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How about the GFS having this thing climb the coast since hr 324. Props as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We'll actually have something to call "The Wiggum Storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at NHC's report, Gloria had a storm surge of 6 feet near Atlantic City, with maximum sustained winds of 47 mph at the airport. Marina only reported 40 mph but I'm sure it was higher in most places on the coast. http://www.nhc.noaa....ia/prelim09.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't understand why people are so stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't understand why people are so stubborn. I don't understand why a few people decide to come in and clutter the thread up with useless information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm holding my tongue from this point forward. You'll be one of the few. Folks should just let the damn thing ride out for better or for worse and not b**ch if you get better than/worse than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not budging from Town Bank, NJ. When they knock I'll give them the name of my next-of-kin. I'm not scared of rain and wind. Staying with neighbors who are in their 70s and were here for Ash Wednesday '62. They said that storm didn't do squat on the West side of the Cape...all oceanfront damage which is what this one is looking like....oceanfront and barrier island/back bay flooding. TWC says we may be dodging a bullet...."Irene is just not getting it's act together to intensify any farther and as per latest satellite frames, may be encountering some raggedness in the eye and weakening". You don't have any idea what a hurricane going into the Delware Bay will do to the west side of the Cape do you? You do know that Town Bank is one of the lowest points in Cape May County right? You also do see that the pressure is still dropping, and the eye just closed off right? You can't compare this to the Ash Wednesday storm, two totally different monsters. You don't even live there, I could possibly see if it was your year round home. But by all means, be one of the morons who stays, and the FD has to pull them out of the house when you have water coming in, threatening to wash you away. I'm glad I won't be one of the 1st responders who has to risk life and limb because somebody from PA decided to stay, when they got told to get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Important quote from the Gloria report which I think needs to be remembered here: "Wind damage was greater on the east side of the hurricane and resulted in downed trees causing extended power outages for hundreds of thousands of people in the northeast U.S. To the west of the center, from Virginia through New Jersey, the strongest winds were from the west to northwest...after the center had passed." http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1985-prelim/gloria/prelim03.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 must of been pretty important if ray felt he needed to say it 4 times lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 must of been pretty important if ray felt he needed to say it 4 times lol Haha, sorry, it kept giving me the "page cannot be found" or "database error". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So important you had to say it thrice! Edit: I see Tom already used that joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Holy Crap. TWC just gave Mt Holly props for the jet streak strengthening Irene concept and did a piece on it visually. Thumbs up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Important quote from the Gloria report which I think needs to be remembered here: "Wind damage was greater on the east side of the hurricane and resulted in downed trees causing extended power outages for hundreds of thousands of people in the northeast U.S. To the west of the center, from Virginia through New Jersey, the strongest winds were from the west to northwest...after the center had passed." http://www.nhc.noaa....ia/prelim03.gif Was thinking of this when looking at the tree near the NW corner of the house we rent....its on school property otherwise my landlord would've cut it down a long time ago. Yeah I bet a lot of the tree damage we end up getting is on the back side of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Holy Crap. TWC just gave Mt Holly props for the jet streak strengthening Irene concept and did a piece on it visually. Thumbs up to that. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I saw that too. Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said "This is a very good catch by the Philadelphia Weather Office". Further showing one of the best NWS office's in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Seriously? yeppers. Couldn't believe they gave you guys credit. Was it you that saw the potential or someone else?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just out of curiosity, how much rain did Floyd drop in 1999? My dad says 8", which would be bad if were expecting 5-10" plus the moon and saturated water table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just out of curiosity, how much rain did Floyd drop in 1999? My dad says 8", which would be bad if were expecting 5-10" plus the moon and saturated water table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can confirm his saying that as well, I am sure he will say it again at 10:00...he was talking about the jet streak and how it may aide in strengthening. he talked about it for a good 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yikes, well I guess its time to build a ark then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm strangely comforted by that. Seeing as Irene may be 50-75 miles east, I may get the same or less than Floyd in the western LV. Agree or disagree?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeppers. Couldn't believe they gave you guys credit. Was it you that saw the potential or someone else?? It was me and then carried in the afternoon AFD by the day shift. That is really cool that they gave us credit on that. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just out of curiosity, how much rain did Floyd drop in 1999? My dad says 8", which would be bad if were expecting 5-10" plus the moon and saturated water table. Some areas had 14"... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/floyd/floydreport.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm strangely comforted by that. Seeing as Irene may be 50-75 miles east, I may get the same or less than Floyd in the western LV. Agree or disagree?? NHC official forecast has an identical track to Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mr. Gorse... will be riding it out either at the beach (if my bosses want me to link up with another sat crew) or in the back bays of the shark river near Belmar with family... What kind of surge could the back bays get in Monmouth County from a track 50 miles either way of the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC official forecast has an identical track to Floyd. Noticed that myself and am a little concerned about any westward shift - not really in the mood for 12" of rain like I had back in Morris Co. with Floyd. I've already seen Easton go completely underwater twice since moving out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It was me and then carried in the afternoon AFD by the day shift. That is really cool that they gave us credit on that. Nice! Maybe there is a detente forming between TWC and the NWS. Great meteorology by you Mike. Mt Holly continues to be strong in spite of Gigi!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC official forecast has an identical track to Floyd. Thanks. the house survived Floyd barely. At this point, I'll take any deviation from Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Mr. Gorse... will be riding it out either at the beach (if my bosses want me to link up with another sat crew) or in the back bays of the shark river near Belmar with family... What kind of surge could the back bays get in Monmouth County from a track 50 miles either way of the coastline? Uncertainty this far out getting specific with coastal flooding heights as it depends on the strength and track of the hurricane. We do however have some numbers in our briefing slides about the coastal flooding. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Uncertainty this far out getting specific with coastal flooding heights as it depends on the strength and track of the hurricane. We do however have some numbers in our briefing slides about the coastal flooding. http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Mike, I didn't see any insight in the afd on rainfall amounts within the region olther to say heavy rain with flooding potential. Can you provide your unofficial insight to us on amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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