Ralph Wiggum Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hurricane guidance really has this coming inland rather far left. A saving grace for coastal areas (kind of)? Storm weakens over land perhaps and spares the coast the worst. However, inland tracks that are being shown are disaster for flooding farther West. Hello Harrisburg: Let's hope for a winter storm 2011 scenario where it hooks right and maybe OTS at the last minute. C'mon, go East!! P.S. Generator came last night....got enough batteries for a year.....canned goods purchased for food for a family of 5 for 2 weeks.....all outdoor furniture is secured and away.....first aid kit(s) are filled......fire extinguishers filled. I'm down in Cape May (Town Bank) so if anyone can think of anything I'm missing, please give me a heads up. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You are pretty far inland and if you don't live near a creek you will be fine. I'm just worried about long power outages since we tend to lose power here quite often in bad weather. Also, I don't want a tree falling on my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Repercussions of the ECMWF track for the Delaware Valley are going to be quite severe considering the area has received 8-13" rain over the last three weeks, flooding and power outtages due to down trees. I have concern about losing power for an extensive period of time Got a generator several years ago and had a back feed installed to our elec. panel so we dont need extension cords. It has gotten a lot of use. Most folks in the area own one. Buying gas tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At this point it might as well keep tredning west because being over land for that long will at least weaken it somewhat and it would just be a tropical storm when it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Got a generator several years ago and had a back feed installed to our elec. panel so we dont need extension cords. It has gotten a lot of use. Most folks in the area own one. Buying gas tonight. Have a free room:P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just told my mom to grab gas, dry ice, batteries and cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just told my mom to grab gas, dry ice, batteries and cash. Yeah where can we locate dry ice in our neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know there's a place on mcdade. Yellow book it. That's by in gonna do. I In sea isle city till Saturday though.... Ummm maybe Sunday... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know there's a place on mcdade. Yellow book it. That's by in gonna do. I In sea isle city till Saturday though.... Ummm maybe Sunday... :-) Roberts Oxygen in Darby and Collingdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hurricane guidance really has this coming inland rather far left. A saving grace for coastal areas (kind of)? Storm weakens over land perhaps and spares the coast the worst. However, inland tracks that are being shown are disaster for flooding farther West. Hello Harrisburg: Let's hope for a winter storm 2011 scenario where it hooks right and maybe OTS at the last minute. C'mon, go East!! P.S. Generator came last night....got enough batteries for a year.....canned goods purchased for food for a family of 5 for 2 weeks.....all outdoor furniture is secured and away.....first aid kit(s) are filled......fire extinguishers filled. I'm down in Cape May (Town Bank) so if anyone can think of anything I'm missing, please give me a heads up. Thanks. Drinking water, Propane for cooking on your gas grille/or wood or Charcol. What about protection? Firearms? Make sure your Fire Extinguisher is the right one. Should be a Multi-purpose Dry Chemical ABC. I also so no metion of liquer? How much will that generator handle? Maybe get alternative lighting. ( not flash lights) battery operated lamps are good. Get some 5 gallon buckets to use for a toilet just in case. get the ones with the lids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nasty t-storm already here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Amazing what you can do with Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Here is the latest 5-day QPF total from NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Amazing what you can do with Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Here is the latest 5-day QPF total from NCEP. Nice map. Hopefully, that includes today's rains as well. Not that it makes much difference. Still way too much rain for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nasty t-storm already here currently. Expecting another 1-3" of the frozen stuff this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wxsim module has 8.31" of rain on Saturday into Sunday from Irene,,,plus near 0.75" today below normal rain for my station looks to be a thing of the past by Sunday Currently Light Rain Temp 70.9 .01" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Interesting tidbit from mt.holly's AFD about a 250mb jet helping this cane out in terms of intensity: HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH EROSION. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Expecting another 1-3" of the frozen stuff this week? Hopefully not. But i'm surprised how much this line has strengthened already ! Lookout Juyzee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 heres the hpc qpf for the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is not good. The neshaminy creek will definitely flood my basement with 10" + The last time that happened was with Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 only thing to hope for now is this continues to go west and we miss the heavy rain...then we have to deal with severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How close are you? Are you right on the creek along Newportville Rd or further away? This is not good. The neshaminy creek will definitely flood my basement with 10" + The last time that happened was with Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is not good. The neshaminy creek will definitely flood my basement with 10" + The last time that happened was with Floyd. I would expect a region wide 3-6 inch rainfall. From what gather from wathcing hurricanes over the years, the heaviest rain is localized in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thanks. Will repost on Mid-Atlantic. Interesting tidbit from mt.holly's AFD about a 250mb jet helping this cane out in terms of intensity: HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH EROSION. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z NAM is east through 54 hours, but it still looks like a landfall is coming on the eastern part of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z NAM is east through 54 hours, but it still looks like a landfall is coming on the eastern part of OBX. It is also 4mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12ZNAM hr 60 landfall OBX as a 961mb storm (5mb stronger then same time period from 6Z but 4 mb weaker from 0Z)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 only thing to hope for now is this continues to go west and we miss the heavy rain...then we have to deal with severe threat. Unfortunately, wasn't the anser to your question on the general model thread that we're pretty close to the westward limit now? With all the focus on track there's still lots that could go wrong with the storm itself, so there's that too. There's still never been a Cat 3 hit north of SC/NC border I believe... That said, I'm now going to make my first and last completely weenie post on this board: I cannot f'***in believe this is actually going to happen. But apparently it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Unfortunately, wasn't the anser to your question on the general model thread that we're pretty close to the westward limit now? With all the focus on track there's still lots that could go wrong with the storm itself, so there's that too. There's still never been a Cat 3 hit north of SC/NC border I believe... That said, I'm now going to make my first and last completely weenie post on this board: I cannot f'***in believe this is actually going to happen. But apparently it is. yea i still don't believe this may happen, i just cant see it...this hasnt happened in decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12ZNAM hr 60 landfall OBX as a 961mb storm (5mb stronger then same time period from 6Z but 4 mb weaker from 0Z)) wouldn't give nam much thought at all...if some of the global models and hurricane models come east then you can give credence to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 yea i still don't believe this may happen, i just cant see it...this hasnt happened in decades This is exactly the reason I've been trying to hype this storm. We haven't seen anything like this in a really long time and the worst case scenario, while not probable, is definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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