LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM looks north of its 18z position through 36, FWIW. Yeah its more north and a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM looks north of its 18z position through 36, FWIW. its in the same exact spot as 18z..the reason it looks further north is because on this run its faster...if you have 3hr increments for the nam compare hr 42 to 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Very concerned about flooding here in New Brunswick. Not really sure how it can work in this area... freshwater flooding from rainfall coming down the Raritan with some amount of surge coming up the river? I don't even know... (assuming this pans out as modeled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Very concerned about flooding here in New Brunswick. Not really sure how it can work in this area... freshwater flooding from rainfall coming down the Raritan with some amount of surge coming up the river? I don't even know... (assuming this pans out as modeled). There was a lot of flooding in New Brunswick from Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z NAM is farther east than 18z, but that was expected...18z was really far west. This run still makes landfall on OBX though, so it would likely come up the coast and take a track in between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18 Z NAM looks like it is going to scrape just off of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It still looks like it will provide a helluva lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z NAM is farther east than 18z, but that was expected...18z was really far west. This run still makes landfall on OBX though, so it would likely come up the coast and take a track in between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro. P.S. LV, Irene cleared your 24/75 BM...23.8N 75.4W at the 11pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I told people on Twitter and Face book to keep up with the forecast and if warnings are given to take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As a reminder, NWS Mount Holly is posting briefing packages online. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As a reminder, NWS Mount Holly is posting briefing packages online. http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Nice write-ups. You guys should highlight these on your home page. (just under the hurricane track map along the right looks like a nice spot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As a reminder, NWS Mount Holly is posting briefing packages online. http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Very helpful and insightful. We are taking all precautions here along the coast. Let's hope the wind and surge will be manageable. Thanks and great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st80ugfd80 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The state of Delaware's Emergency Management Agency issued this statement: "With the first hurricane of the season predicted to track up the Atlantic Coast, Delaware emergency management officials are urging the public to take this storm very seriously. Even though it is too early to accurately predict the strength and exact path of Irene by the time it reaches the Delmarva area, everyone is encouraged to be prepared for disruptive weather. Delaware Emergency Management Agency Director Jamie Turner urges everyone to use this time to review their household emergency plan and to check emergency supplies. He said it is very important for the public to also monitor the weather and be aware of pending effects of a storm well in advance in order to plan and act safely. “Have a plan, get a kit and stay informed,” Turner said. “We want everyone to have food and water for at least three days, batteries for lights and radios and a means of charging cell phones. Remember that part of your emergency plan is to have a destination in mind if you have to evacuate. If officials instruct you to evacuate, please do it.” Additional things to consider in planning for an emergency include food and medications for those that might have special dietary or pharmaceutical needs and/or appropriate equipment for family members who might use assistive technology. Families also need to remember the needs of pets and stock adequate food and supplies as well as appropriate carriers or restraints should evacuation be required." The statement goes on and can be found at: Delaware Hurricane Preparedness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z GFS comes further west.. looks like 12z euro.. heavy rains for the interior.. awaiting maps for total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z GFS comes further west.. looks like 12z euro.. heavy rains for the interior.. awaiting maps for total precip. Looks like the eye is right over CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The big "Ifs" are starting to shrink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 5" of rain up the I-81 corridor in E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like the eye is right over CNJ. It is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like the eye is right over CNJ. It makes LF on LBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I got more uncomfortable in my chair when I looked at the 00z GFS 925 mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I got more uncomfortable in my chair when I looked at the 00z GFS 925 mb winds. Dust off that Extreme Wind Warning product. I kid, I kid. ...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It makes LF on LBI. This would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Absoultely agee and will be getting my co-workers alerted on the seriousness of the situation. I'll definitely be foward that briefing you guys produce. Thats awesome your office provides that on the website. Very concise and right to the point.. I think its safe to say, getting sleep the next several days just went out the window.. I got more uncomfortable in my chair when I looked at the 00z GFS 925 mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think you pro's have your hands full, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Working on the gridded database now. Fun! It should be interesting when I load in the wind grids from the 5 AM NHC advisory later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Dust off that Extreme Wind Warning product. I kid, I kid. ...I think. Let's not get carried away just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I got more uncomfortable in my chair when I looked at the 00z GFS 925 mb winds. I haven't even let myself see those yet. At 2000 feet, I could only imagine the worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sounds like the euro just painted and even worse case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sounds like the euro just painted and even worse case scenario. Straight up the Chesapeake into eastern PA as a Cat 1 hurricane...Philly gets destroyed by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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