ptb127 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 More evidence that demands a verdict.. remnants of tropical system dumps widespread 5"+ over already drenched areas. Could lead to historic flooding concerns if it verified http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_252m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 More evidence that demands a verdict.. remnants of tropical system dumps widespread 5"+ over already drenched areas. Could lead to historic flooding concerns if it verified http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_252m.gif Sounds plausible -- Just remember 1903 and 1955 for comparisons. Same setup- extreme record heat, heavy rain for days not related to tropical systems and then a tropical system for August- September. Setup for a severe cold winter looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Sounds plausible -- Just remember 1903 and 1955 for comparisons. Same setup- extreme record heat, heavy rain for days not related to tropical systems and then a tropical system for August- September. Setup for a severe cold winter looking pretty good right now. not arguing thats going to be right or wrong, but the latest cfs forecast for winter normal temp wise, but def a presence of a se ridge, but that can change and probably/hopefully will. It also develops a mod la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Sounds plausible -- Just remember 1903 and 1955 for comparisons. Same setup- extreme record heat, heavy rain for days not related to tropical systems and then a tropical system for August- September. Setup for a severe cold winter looking pretty good right now. I don't want a severe cold winter.. normally that leads to suppression storm track wise. I want normal to slightly below and historic levels of snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 back on topic, trends are toward the remnants of Irene remaining in the southeast for a time and/or trending west of the apps. That may minimize rains here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 hopefully Irene's waste goes elsewhere, we do not need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS at 252hrs as evidence? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Last nights Euro, GFS and CMC are all I-95 specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Last nights Euro, GFS and CMC are all I-95 specials. I am amazed at how many runs of the GFS showed this storm. last week we were talking over 300 hrs, now we are close to 162. I am not saying the model is right, but that it has not wavered much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well the 12Z GFS continues the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Epic left-of-track rain event for Central PA if the GFS is right...the Susquehanna is going to be getting a lot of rain if that track is right. Philly gets soaked but the worst will be to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Epic left-of-track rain event for Central PA if the GFS is right...the Susquehanna is going to be getting a lot of rain if that track is right. Philly gets soaked but the worst will be to our west Looks like a major rainstorm for E PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 euro follows gfs...4-5 inches of rain from del river west ...with 5-6 inches in the i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 euro follows gfs...4-5 inches of rain from del river west ...with 5-6 inches in the i81 corridor f'n amazing agreement a week out...which means it won't happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I still think there is the small chance this gets turned slightly out to sea when it tries to come up the coast because of the cold front passing Thursday/Friday. But it looks like it may pass just in time to aid in bringing it up the coast. Could be more rainy times ahead. As long as Labor day weekend is nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I still think there is the small chance this gets turned slightly out to sea when it tries to come up the coast because of the cold front passing Thursday/Friday. But it looks like it may pass just in time to aid in bringing it up the coast. Could be more rainy times ahead. As long as Labor day weekend is nice! The 12z GGEM at 96 has the trough over the GL slightly more amped and digging just slightly more than the GFS at the same time. GGEM's 582 contour goes through Columbus, OH whereas the GFS's goes north of Detroit. Synoptically a very small difference, especially for D4, but it means the difference between a SC LF and an OBX graze. Right now, the GGEM is the most amped of all and it still takes Irene barely E of NJ. So I think OTS is rather unlikely. Or at least, a recurve east anyway. We could still see the models trend east so much so that the actual track is over the OBX but thats different from a recurve in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Central PA isn't nearly as oversaturated (more variable basin-wide), but parts of NJ are at 400%+ of normal rainfall for the past 14 days. Could be nasty if enough rain falls. However, as Phil882 alludes to here, the setup isn't necessarily the same as Floyd as it lacks a shortwave/trough to interact with and instead just drifts northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z gfs is 9-10 inches of rain from phl on east to acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z gfs is 9-10 inches of rain from phl on east to acy Hopefully things change in the next 7 days. Which I'm sure they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z gfs is 9-10 inches of rain from phl on east to acy At least I won't have to work about our lake flooding again from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 At least I won't have to work about our lake flooding again from this one. It'll just be part of the Atlantic by the time we're done. Edit: Adam, can this thread be renamed to discuss Irene's Impacts for Delaware Valley since it seems it may impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I still think there is the small chance this gets turned slightly out to sea when it tries to come up the coast because of the cold front passing Thursday/Friday. But it looks like it may pass just in time to aid in bringing it up the coast. Could be more rainy times ahead. As long as Labor day weekend is nice! hopefully it does go out to sea, we dont need the rain nor crappy weekends to end summer. It has rained the last 3 weekends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z gfs is 9-10 inches of rain from phl on east to acy Super sharp cutoff to the west.. which is typical for these types of storms.. But it changes with each run so hopefully the super soaked areas of NJ don't get hit again like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z gfs is 9-10 inches of rain from phl on east to acy If only the surface freezing line were a thousand miles further south. But seriously, here's hoping the places that have already dealt with flooding issues don't get near that much rain. In fact, hopefully nobody anywhere in the area gets even half that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 0z GFS back to it's more consistent 12z and 6z runs, with more rain to the west of the track with it tracking over I-95.. still though a 4-5" dumping of rain over a widespread area that definitely doesn't need it.. and that's assuming the strength depicted here is correct. If the storm is a cat 3 at landfall then it will be much heavier rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 euro shifts east...coastal scrapper from Hatteras north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 6z GFS rakes the area with a hurricane off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 6z GFS rakes the area with a hurricane off the NJ coast. That's a very Floyd-like track but a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This could have serious implications, I think I will harvest any vegetables in the garden that are ready . One good thing is the this week looks like we will dry out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 0z GFS back to it's more consistent 12z and 6z runs, with more rain to the west of the track with it tracking over I-95.. still though a 4-5" dumping of rain over a widespread area that definitely doesn't need it.. and that's assuming the strength depicted here is correct. If the storm is a cat 3 at landfall then it will be much heavier rainfall totals. wind strength at landfall has little to do with eventual rain totals two days later. The greatest rainfall I've ever seen was a little known TS Tammy back in 2005 that entered GA, promptly dissolved, and ended up giving me ~11" in one day in the Lehigh Valley. The key for heavy rain is to get the storm to phase with a mid latitude short wave. Then, the rain will be mostly to the west of the system, like in winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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