TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 How about following some of your own forum rules and providing something other than lame one line replies with no support Ian. This is a discussion man. He answered your question. There is no reason for PDS to be even mentioned or in the same ballpark as this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 How about following some of your own forum rules and providing something other than lame one line replies with no support Ian. This is a discussion man. I don't think it would be PDS because it's not a PDS situation. Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wonder if we will get a special balloon release from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There is no chance of a PDS watch. period. He shouldn't have to explain that, it's a ridiculous notion. Probably about as ridiculous as this reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't think it would be PDS because it's not a PDS situation. Better? A hell of a lot better than "No" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 485 ACUS11 KWNS 211555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211554 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-211800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VA...THE DELMARVA...SRN AND ERN PA...NJ...INTO THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211554Z - 211800Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE OR MORE WATCHES DURING THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN BROAD POCKETS...COMPLICATING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT DOES APPEAR ONE AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE/WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD SUPPORT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS DIMINISHING...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG TOWARD THE 18-20Z. THEREAFTER...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE THREAT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...OR REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..KERR.. 08/21/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What does your gut say? Hold serve or any sig changes coming to tor probs? I don't see any changes to the day 1...if anything I could see the 5% probs shifted north a bit...but no large changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A hell of a lot better than "No" I'm on my phone. Less is more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For future reference: "The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well looks like a watch for us sometime between 1 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 SPC seems as clueless as us to what will occur and where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 SPC seems as clueless as us to what will occur and where When all modes are possible but none is dominant kinda gotta wait to see what fires up. Good setup but not our best for torn etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Backing wind field across the region ahead of the storms developing across West Virginia. This could be quite the interesting afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I am going to make the call.. hatched wind at 1630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not sure the last time I have seen a discussion where they mention winds of 80MPH possible before anything really even forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For future reference: "The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often." Probably should bold some of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 And we begin... STW Highland/Augusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 I am going to make the call.. hatched wind at 1630 Hard to say - as Ian noted it might be fairly isolated to specific cells. But still, LWX and SPC are likely talking and were talking when the morning discussion was issued so it's possible I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hard to say - as Ian noted it might be fairly isolated to specific cells. But still, LWX and SPC are likely talking and were talking when the morning discussion was issued so it's possible I suppose. Go bold or go home! Could be the same... but the way LWX said in the AFD, who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For future reference: "The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often." Probably should bold some of this. Fair enough... the changes of either of those occurring is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Probably should bold some of this. You'd need something like an expected tornado outbreak or a derecho producing 80+ along a huge line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I've been getting fringed this morning by the storms. The one passing just south now has intense lightning and thunder...a lot of ground strikes showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 You'd need something like an expected tornado outbreak or a derecho producing 80+ along a huge line. There were at least 4-5 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued in last year or two. Not sure why this Chris guy is acting like its only a tornado driven event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There were at least 4-5 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued in last year or two. Not sure why this Chris guy is acting like its only a tornado driven event. And those are for serial derechoes producing 80+ mph winds along a line usually exceeding 100+ miles...you will not see a PDS STW for localized wet microbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There were at least 4-5 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued in last year or two. Not sure why this Chris guy is acting like its only a tornado driven event. Its extremely rare to get one here is the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 There were at least 4-5 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued in last year or two. Not sure why this Chris guy is acting like its only a tornado driven event. I'm issuing a PDW, Particularly Distraught Weenie warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 And those are for serial derechoes producing 80+ mph winds along a line usually exceeding 100+ miles...you will not see a PDS STW for localized wet microbursts. Or squall lines. Ehhh, tried to post the last PDS but it doesnt show correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Just woke up and caught up to the thread... LOL @ MoD thinking PDS Watch... the line of discussion should have dictated that, while enhanced, the overall threat is not nearly significant enough for a PDS Watch. More pre-frontal stuff than I was expecting this morning... changing my target to NE MD for now. Jason had similar thoughts with NE MD, and it looks like we'll be chasing together today (he's calling back soon with the yay/nay). Waiting for SPC update, watching the latest info. and should be in the road before 1:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm issuing a PDW, Particularly Distraught Weenie warning I would probably stop posting then weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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