yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Updated morning AFD sould be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Updated morning AFD sould be interesting Watch it be like "Apologies on that HWO - we just wanted to see how Yoda would react" Also - I expect Yoda to bring his loyalties back to this thread for copying and pasting - Come back from the tropics for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Watch it be like "Apologies on that HWO - we just wanted to see how Yoda would react" They will be like LOL fooled ya... no rain for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 They will be like LOL fooled ya... no rain for you Some of the world famous yodarameters on mesoanalysis are already up there and climbing. Sig tor is 1 already and supercell is 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On a more serious note - anyone have an idea on timing? I've got a MIL who needs to drive back to the eastern shore, and I'd rather have her on the road before all hell breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 On a more serious note - anyone have an idea on timing? I've got a MIL who needs to drive back to the eastern shore, and I'd rather have her on the road before all hell breaks loose. Seems like anytime from like 2 until 7 could be fair game. Wouldn't put it past mother nature to pop a few earlier ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Seems like anytime from like 2 until 7 could be fair game. Wouldn't put it past mother nature to pop a few earlier ones too. Dont' most of these frontals typically roll through I-95 starting around 4ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dont' most of these frontals typically roll through I-95 starting around 4ish? Yeah but I'm allowing for some earlier popups ahead of the main thing. 4pm would probably be a good narrower time to zero in on. I guess also since Katie is a bit east she'd have more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Plenty o sun in store for the morning Not here. Raining and 74 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yeah but I'm allowing for some earlier popups ahead of the main thing. 4pm would probably be a good narrower time to zero in on. I guess also since Katie is a bit east she'd have more time. Thanks. I told her sometime after 2, think she is leaving around noonish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On a more serious note - anyone have an idea on timing? I've got a MIL who needs to drive back to the eastern shore, and I'd rather have her on the road before all hell breaks loose. The wording of that made me chuckle. I assume you meant you want her off the roads before hell breaks loose. But then again, you are talking about a MIL, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dont' most of these frontals typically roll through I-95 starting around 4ish? Fronts don't really work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thanks. I told her sometime after 2, think she is leaving around noonish. I actually know nothing about weather - but I did stay at Holiday Inn Express last night so I must be an expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Fronts don't really work like that. Poor terminology on my part but you get what I'm saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The wording of that made me chuckle. I assume you meant you want her off the roads before hell breaks loose. But then again, you are talking about a MIL, so who knows. I want her out of this area (north of Baltimore) and on her way east before hell breaks loose. I do want her to get home safely and not have to drive in anything. I actually know nothing about weather - but I did stay at Holiday Inn Express last night so I must be an expert. works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Poor terminology on my part but you get what I'm saying I know! I always say something because comments like that is how we get urban myths started...especially among casual readers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I know! I always say something because comments like that is how we get urban myths started...especially among casual readers. Good, put him in his place.... pffft, fronts always moving through at 4pm, silly waterboi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Good, put him in his place.... pffft, fronts always moving through at 4pm, silly waterboi Ban! Ban! Ban! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh how do we fail today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh how do we fail today? Isolated tornadoes for Ian only. Nothing for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ban! Ban! Ban! Nah, can't do that. Though, I fully expect him to troll me back when he returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh how do we fail today? It's hard to see a scenario where everyone would fail today...but the further south you get from the PA/MD border...the more nervous I'd be about missing out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Updated LWX AFD taking a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nah, can't do that. Though, I fully expect him to troll me back when he returns. I hope your MILs car won't start and she sticks around all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I hope your MILs car won't start and she sticks around all afternoon. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I've warned my peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I've warned my peeps yeah, I gave my mom a heads up, who is still trying to clean up from Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ053-054-212315- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0013.110821T1800Z-110822T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...FAIRFAX... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...THE CITY OF BALTIMORE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. * UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST WEEK HAVE SATURATED SOIL IN THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Updated LWX AFD taking a while its been updated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...WEAK SHRTWV TROF THIS MRNG INITIATED CNVCTN IN THE BALTIMORE AREA. THESE TSTMS CONTAINED HVY RAIN AND MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT LKLY WERE ELEVATED. RECOVERY IS XPCD IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROF THAT WILL IMPACT THE RGN EARLY THIS AFTN. CNVCTN OVER WV WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THIS MRNG. WITH HEATING OF VERY MOIST AMS OVER FCST AREA...THIS CLUSTER OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO INCRGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPSWING IN INTENSITY AND CVRG OF CNVCTN XPCD BY EARLY AFTN AS SFC TROF SHARPENS AND AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE. MODIFIED KIAD 12Z SOUNDING CONTAINS 3000 J/KG CAPE WITH MEAGER INHIBITION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCRS AHEAD OF APRCHG TROF AND MID-LVL JET NEARS...CNVCTN SHUD BLOSSOM EASILY. AS DP-LYR SHEAR INCRS...UPDRAFTS SHUD BCM INCRGLY ORGANIZED...FAVORING BOTH CELLULAR AND LINEAR MODES. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR STRUCTURES CAN BE XPCD. SGFNT SVR WIND EVENT WILL BE PSBL AS WET DOWNBURSTS COULD REACH VELOCITIES IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH SPCLY E OF BLUE RDG MTNS. DRY LYR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO WILL ENHANCE A HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE POTENT UPDRAFTS XPCD. LOW-LVL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTN IN INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF APRCHG TROF AXIS. ALL MODELS INDICATE DVLPMT OF WEAK SFC LOPRES ALONG THE LEE TROF AXIS...WHICH WILL FURTHER BROADEN THE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS. WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM MRNG CNVCTN AND FAVORABLE LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL IN THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS...SPCLY IN NERN MD. ALTHOUGH TSTMS WILL BE MOVG QUICKLY...THE MOST SGFNT RAINFALL IS XPCD IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY SVRL ROUNDS OF RECENT INTENSE TSTMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS RGN THIS EVE AND LKLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS AND TSTMS. SVR WX THREAT WITH THESE TSTMS MAY BE LESSER OWING TO WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THIS AFTN. BUT IT CANNOT BE SAID WITH CONFIDENCE THAT A SECOND ROUND OF SVR WX IS NOT PSBL THIS EVE. RAPID DECR IN PCPN XPCD BEHIND THE CDFNT...BUT CLD CVR MAY LINGER THRU MUCH OF TNGT. LOW LVLS WILL DRY OUT AS CDFNT CROSSES...WHICH MAY HELP MINIMA TO FALL LWR THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT IN SUCH CLDY CONDS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.