wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A bit north on the Analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 A bit north on the Analogs... Fits well with SPC slight risk and Ellinwoods thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Fits well with SPC slight risk and Ellinwoods thoughts. Of us (in the DC area) I meant.. sorry for confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Of us (in the DC area) I meant.. sorry for confusion. Uh, yes, wasn't the point of consensus in LWX for northern areas favored? They mentioned bumbing up POPS for the northern CWA in their last disco while leaving the Southern CWA pat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh hai how be things former mid atlantic peoples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh hai how be things former mid atlantic peoples Well hey there... long-ish time no see! Things will (hopefully) be awesome this afternoon ----- SPC's Day 1: Regional: 2% Tor (within Slight Risk boundaries) / 15% wind / 15% hail Far northern MD is touching the 5% Tor and is in the 30% wind, which extends N+E through E PA and W NJ: Pertinent Disc: ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...REACHING NRN NY TO WRN PA/UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO WRN PA AND SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE HUDSON VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND WILL EACH SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THESE REGIONS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST /AOB 6.5 C PER KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MD/D.C./DELMARVA TO SERN/ERN NY AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG WHILE FURTHER W OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY VALUES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VA TO ERN NY WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY AND AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR VECTORS MORE NORMAL TO THE LEE TROUGH SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS AND HIGHER THETAE EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN PA TO SERN NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER W INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT. MAX POPS KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE GIVEN DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE GIVEN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH ABOVE 1KM. 70 POPS WERE GIVEN FOR BALT-WASH METRO CONSIDERING LATE AFTERNOON TIMING AND EXPECTED PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 18Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT. MAX POPS KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE GIVEN DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE GIVEN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH ABOVE 1KM. 70 POPS WERE GIVEN FOR BALT-WASH METRO CONSIDERING LATE AFTERNOON TIMING AND EXPECTED PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. See post 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 See post 23 Sorry dude must have hit the back button on the LWX page Meanwhile thunder off to the North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Today should be loads of fun from a meteorogical standpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Big storm sitting over Baltimore. Downpour w frequent c to g strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Catchin' some zzzz's then heading up to SE PA this afternoon. Should be a fun time. Doubt Jason'll come along... last I saw he had a busy weekend scheduled. Wooooooooooo storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm going to my first Nats game today...which, and I apologize in advance, surely means a rain delay of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Getting absolute pouring rain with fairly frequent lightning and 20-30mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 My apologies for a weenie question, but I thought the nasty weather was to fire up this afternoon. Yet at 7:30 a.m. Baltimore/East is getting a boomer of a storm (heavy rain, C2G lighting.) Will this pop up have an effect on the storms later, possibly making them stronger or weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 My apologies for a weenie question, but I thought the nasty weather was to fire up this afternoon. Yet at 7:30 a.m. Baltimore/East is getting a boomer of a storm (heavy rain, C2G lighting.) Will this pop up have an effect on the storms later, possibly making them stronger or weaker? shouldn't have too much of an impact. But damn the echo tops are near 55K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Upton gung ho for a big event in their CWA. Mentions of supercells. Interesting to note that LWX lacks any mention of supercells in their CWA, surprised as I thought we would see at least for northern portions. Further north in the slight risk area, ALB says if clouds do not significantly hamper instability, severe likely. They are pushing enhanced wording. Mount Holly seems somewhat lackadaisical with the threat.. mentioning high parameters of svr, their afd wanes in comparison to the gung ho upton one however. Do I think this is a huge event for the books? No. Maybe our most memorable event locally however. But I think there will be a couple supercells this afternoon with plenty of svr reports. Well organized storms elsewhere.. and possibly a pretty awesome line of storms. Thoughts on a map: UPTON PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE OUTBREAK. 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BRN...RESULTING IN A TENDENCY TOWARDS MULTICELLULAR. SYNOPTIC LLVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIMITED...HOWEVER AS STORMS DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LLVL INFLOW...EXPECT THIS SHEAR TO BE ENHANCED RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STERLING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE NORTH...A PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFKIT INDICATE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ACROSS BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON WHERE ONE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SIMILAR VALUES IN FFG EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AS WELL. ALBANY FOR TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ML MUCAPES REACH 1000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... H7-H5 LAPSE RATE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE 5.5 TO 6.5 C/KM...0-3 KM HELICITY 100-300 M2/S2 WITH HIGHEST VALUES ON GFS AND NAM TOWARDS 00Z ACROSS THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE FA...AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED H5 JET OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS MOVING INTO FA INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER HEATING AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT RISK POTENTIAL IN HWO AND HAVE PLACED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS STARTING AROUND 14Z MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. Mount Holly THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LATER TIMING, THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THIS MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH INCREASING LL FLOW DURG THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS, A WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND CERTAINLY IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME, HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Always on the fringe. It's time we make up for a hot, dry summer down here with a good dousing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 80.1 currently with muddled sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 WOW - 5% tornado 30% hail 30% wind on the new update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Talk about a high impact on population event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Had a nice storm at 730, heavy rain with some really good boomers. Ready for more this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Impressive sounding from IAD this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Had a nice storm at 730, heavy rain with some really good boomers. Ready for more this afternoon! Hmm - you know they say it's a good sign for storms when you have a bit in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Haven't seen that in an HWO before from LWX "STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hmm - you know they say it's a good sign for storms when you have a bit in the AM. Yeah, it was a really nice storm. Poured, thunder shook the windows. Then I went right back to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Haven't seen that in an HWO before from LWX "STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES." June 4 2008 all over again (jk) That does sound pretty impressive right there. Where is Ian? Still being a trollministrator over on the main forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Plenty o sun in store for the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Look at the spotter call to action - .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. - Before it said MAY now it says WILL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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