LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FWIW, WFO PHI (our very own MGorse ) had this to say in their 4PM AFD. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADADOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH WAS ACROSS EASTERNPENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED ALARGE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIOVALLEY. A STRONG 300 MB JET WAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERNGREAT LAKES REGION.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWAUNTIL 01Z.A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC REGIONS TONIGHT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. THE COMBINATION OFINCREASED SHEAR WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000J/KG/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE,STORM MODE HAS BEEN TENDING TO BE IN LINE SEGMENTS WITH A LOCALLYINCREASING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER SPECIAL16-18Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN THE LOWESTLEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF ALOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGINGWIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL CONVECTION LOOKSTO SHIFT EASTWARD, HOWEVER A SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO ACCOMPANYSTRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEMID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL WITHSOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTSESPECIALLY ANY WITH ROTATION ALOFT. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SOMEVEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCEOF A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLYENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND DISCRETE STORMS. THE MAINTHREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE SURFACE WINDS WITH ANY LINESEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE SOME LOCAL LOWER LEVEL ROTATIONGIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING OFSTRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DESPITE THEAIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ONGOINGCONVECTION, THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH ALOFT WHICH MAYBE ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILLSTEP THE POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THECOVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED TO LESS DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND WITH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THEATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST, THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG. GIVEN LOWERCONFIDENCE WITH THIS WE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT ATTM. AS FORTEMPERATURES WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/MOS GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Any improvement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The rain seems to be picking up in intensity in this blob, for like a better word, and getting slightly more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Warnings issued in central Jersey with some weak rotation noted on radar. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=Highland+Park+NJ&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Heading directly my way but It'll most likely hit Queens as usual (if it holds together) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Line forming in pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Some gusty winds, heavy rain, and some thunder. Not as disappointing as expected. Should push us over 7 inches for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Warnings issued in central Jersey with some weak rotation noted on radar. http://forecast.weat...erstorm+Warning Looking very interesting here. Thunder beginning once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 any more tightening of the couplet north of McGuire AFB and that storm needs a red box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 any more tightening of the couplet north of McGuire AFB and that storm needs a red box Yeah that almost looks like a mini hook on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 hail mary convection may save the event for some.. now on the back side of this complex near the delaware river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Gunshot thunder, and this may be one of those rare occasions that I'm afraid to be near the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 any more tightening of the couplet north of McGuire AFB and that storm needs a red box It should be TOR warned already. 6:48pm Edit: Rotation seems to weakening, at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Such a waste this is turning out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 earthlight if you chime in. i was looking at that bow echo heading off the coast of jersey heading northeast it looks like. any chance of that holding together and hitting the south shore of long island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 From IEM_OKX Twitter feed: iembot_okx IEMBot Okx #OKX Danbury [Fairfield Co, CT] law enforcement reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 05:30 PM EDT bit.ly/oJOcod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Just issued: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NY/VT/NH...SWD TO DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794...795... VALID 212312Z - 220015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794...795...CONTINUES. NUMEROUS DISCRETE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MERGED INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SRN NY. THIS ALONG WITH MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP OVER NRN NJ IS QUICKLY OVERTURNING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND RADAR CHARACTERISTICS IT APPEARS DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AIRMASS IS STABILIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Radar does look betterish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 First rumble of thunder here in Long Beach since this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 First rumble of thunder here in Long Beach since this afternoon. Seem here in Brooklyn hoping to squeeze one out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is crazy, feels like a tropical storm. Rain, wind and thunder/lightning ongoing for the past 1-2 hours. Up to 1.76" of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is crazy, feels like a tropical storm. Rain, wind and thunder/lightning ongoing for the past 1-2 hours. Up to 1.76" of rain! Vicious lightning/thunder. Cells moving SW through Monmouth and another nasty one in nern Mercer County headed for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Such a waste this is turning out to be Big ol bust up this way too..just some moderate rain and a breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 over 12 inches of rain for the month now and we still have a good week and a half left Yeah and if that tropical system gets here, we should easily break 20" But that severe thunderstorm warning today was one of the "weakest" warned storms I've ever seen-- and much weaker than many storms that have gotten no warnings here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is crazy, feels like a tropical storm. Rain, wind and thunder/lightning ongoing for the past 1-2 hours. Up to 1.76" of rain! Is this stuff moving NE or what The last storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's not a bust. This is not a snowstorm that didn't materialize. They said the potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms. Not everyone in the CWA is supposed to experience these conditions. So far the forecast is verifying just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's not a bust. This is not a snowstorm that didn't materialize. They said the potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms. Not everyone in the CWA is supposed to experience these conditions. So far the forecast is verifying just fine. Exactly. Severe watch doesn't mean that your block will be affected. Event has produced severe weather already and continues to for some. Far from a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not a bust but the same areas continue getting screwed Exactly. Severe watch doesn't mean that your block will be affected. Event has produced severe weather already and continues to for some. Far from a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Friday night was better and more widespread Not a bust but the same areas continue getting screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Friday night was better and more widespread Because it wasn't as good of a setup right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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