IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 watch the line near Allentown, I think thats where the heart of the severe weather will be, the SREF agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 hvy rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Still 2500 joules of surface cape over Northern NJ. We could very well see the convection over PA organize into a convective complex that then shifts east or even northeast with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 heavy rain has just reached my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 30-40 mph wind, blinding rain not a bad storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 .25 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here's the way I worded the situation on twitter just now..."Thunderstorms over Eastern PA and West/Southwest NJ are organizing quickly and heading towards most unstable air, which is currently situated over Northern NJ, Southeast New York, and Western New England. With shortwave providing increased forcing, and low level jet strengthening, as well as effective shear already in place, these storms could organize into an MCS in the next few hrs. If this does occur, potential would exist for locally severe damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. If storms remain unorganized, severe potential will still be there...but more scattered." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 over 12 inches of rain for the month now and we still have a good week and a half left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 heavy rain has just reached my area. an interesting sudden turn northwards from Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z NAM takes the PA stuff and keeps things north into mid-hudson valley and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 212034Z - 212230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN PORTIONS OF WW 795 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS A SPEED MAXIMUM...EMANATING FROM THE APPROACHING 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET...NOSES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 23-01Z...MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND/WEST AND NORTH OF THE NEW YORK CAPITAL DISTRICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Rain with wind and thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 437 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT... * AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...OR NEAR MAHOPAC...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARMEL...LAKE CARMEL AND BREWSTER PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 just by looking at the radar you can see that the storms are further SW than the NAM indicates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 over 12 inches of rain for the month now and we still have a good week and a half left and perhaps a tropical system effecting the area about a week from now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 30-40 mph wind, blinding rain not a bad storm Not a drop of rain here in Rego park.That cell is passing to my East now.More chances later on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 212034Z - 212230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN PORTIONS OF WW 795 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS A SPEED MAXIMUM...EMANATING FROM THE APPROACHING 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET...NOSES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 23-01Z...MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND/WEST AND NORTH OF THE NEW YORK CAPITAL DISTRICT. I think you meant this for the SNE thread, that speaks of the capital district and points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It got very windy (tree bending windy) and this downpour is pretty significant. This is moving out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I had about 5 seconds of blinding rain here, literally. Rained for no more than a minute. Pretty weird. Must have been just barely clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think you meant this for the SNE thread, that speaks of the capital district and points east The discussion has implications on our area as it speaks to the ongoing convection, and the MCD extends towards southeast new york. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z NAM takes the PA stuff and keeps things north into mid-hudson valley and SNE. I still feel it should prime NNJ for severe. Since that wave / meso-low moves just north of the area now. Along with 2500 capes...and nothing really to screw them up yet. (no rain or cloud cover) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Things better hurry up around the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 im in northern nj..and radar doesn't seem too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Up here on a small" moiuntain" overlooking Lake Candlewood. Just checked mobile radar and that storm over westchester split up...nasty looking cell over Carmel/Brewster and approaching danbury...time to get in the car and go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well the firing mechanism to our west in association with the current storms will encounter the more riper environment as it pushes east. Will be interesting to watch the development over the next 1-2 hours and see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Things better hurry up around the metro area. prolly right in time for the Jets game. (7pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The winds just shifted here...watching storms move to the NE towards the south, but clouds moving in a northerly direction to the west. Wonder if there is rotation in that cell...currently near the danbury/new fairfield townline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MCS looks to be struggling again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Things better hurry up around the metro area. Yea our window of opportunity is a lot smaller compared to our friends just to the west of us. Who knows though we may get hit with some severe storms this evening but most likely for me, rain with some thunder is what I'm expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yea our window of opportunity is a lot smaller compared to our friends just to the west of us. Who knows though we may get hit with some severe storms this evening but most likely for me, rain with some thunder is what I'm expecting. Same well see though still got time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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