Dark Energy Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z SPC WRF has major squal line for the area around supper time. Nice! Not so much for LI as it evaporates, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Evening line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's how it usual works 00z SPC WRF has major squal line for the area around supper time. Nice! Not so much for LI as it evaporates, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The SREF has very high severe weather probabilities tomorrow. New SPC outlook momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... ..SYNOPSIS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ANCHORED BY A VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT 12Z SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL AR AND WWD INTO OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND EXTEND WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER W...AN IMPULSE EMANATING FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NRN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN/NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON AIDING IN SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...TENDING TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...REACHING NRN NY TO WRN PA/UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO WRN PA AND SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE HUDSON VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND WILL EACH SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THESE REGIONS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST /AOB 6.5 C PER KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MD/D.C./DELMARVA TO SERN/ERN NY AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG WHILE FURTHER W OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY VALUES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VA TO ERN NY WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY AND AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR VECTORS MORE NORMAL TO THE LEE TROUGH SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS AND HIGHER THETAE EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN PA TO SERN NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER W INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING THIS EVENING...A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS INTO THE NERN STATES AND 60-90 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD COMPENSATE THE WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thinking moderate risk ONCE the storms get going and start doing dmg. FWIW. SPC wont issue it until it is already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 High 700 mb dewpoint depressions later today on the order of ten degrees Celsius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here on long island though.....nada as usual lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... UPR LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE JET APPROACHING THE NRN GREAT LAKES PER WATER VAPOR. H25 U COMPONENT WINDS AND H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ABOUT 2-3 STD/S. 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN ACROSS THE W...EVOLVING INTO WIDESPREAD TSTMS THIS EVE AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS CATCH UP. THIS SOLN HAS BEEN ACCEPTED FOR THE FCST. PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE OUTBREAK. 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BRN...RESULTING IN A TENDENCY TOWARDS MULTICELLULAR. SYNOPTIC LLVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIMITED...HOWEVER AS STORMS DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LLVL INFLOW...EXPECT THIS SHEAR TO BE ENHANCED RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN/T A WARM FRONT INVOF THE CWA WITH THIS EVENT...EHI STILL IN THE 1-2 RANGE SUPPORTING A TOR POTENTIAL. INFLOW MAY ENHANCE THESE NUMBERS AS WELL BUT COMPUTATION IS BASED ON SRH SO CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS IN THE BRN. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ELEVATE THE SPIN UP RISK...AND AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES TONIGHT THE RISK COULD SHIFT TO LI WITH COASTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. PW/S STILL ON TRACK TO REACH JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SO HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FCST. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12hr SREF severe thunderstorm probabilities are some of the higher values I have seen in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thinking moderate risk ONCE the storms get going and start doing dmg. FWIW. SPC wont issue it until it is already happening. It would be a low probability and confidence moderate risk for them...because there are still plenty of questions to be answered. But I think there is a small chance that they do issue one today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like the models have the severe/tornado threat at it's peak for NYC metro between 0z-3z tonight. The 6z NAM has 0-3km EHI numbers 2 or great from Northern NYC N&W by 3z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The clouds are a bit of an issue early this morning throughout the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The clouds are a bit of an issue early this morning throughout the warm sector Clouds are holding in there. Vis Loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 what time is this all going to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 SPC's disco. They are saying the storms to the west should hold together and strengthen some. The cloud cover might cut down on new storms popping up. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 ...NERN STATES TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION... BUSY WEATHER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO-STREAM FLOW WITH PRIMARY WLYS AND STRONG UPR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SEPARATE UPR JET WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WITH A FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-OH VLY AND A WEAKER PERTURBATION MOVING INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS TIED TO THE LWR GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...REACHING CNTRL/ERN NY BY 15-18Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS BEEN MOISTENING OVERNIGHT AND DAYBREAK SATL IMAGES SUGGEST MODEST DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTN. EXPECT EXISTING TSTMS TO GROW STRONGER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BKN-BANDS OF STG-SVR STORMS THAT TRANSLATE ENE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY BY MID/LATE AFTN. LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVE MIGRATING EWD FROM THE MID-OH VLY WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN INSTIGATING MORE STORMS FROM ERN PA SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL VA. STRONGER THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL EXIST HERE AS SATL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING AMID COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE SOMEWHAT WEAK THIS MORNING...WILL BE INCREASING AS 40-60 KT WNW MID-LVL FLOW/STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARRIVE THIS AFTN PER UPSTREAM RAOBS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN VA/MD NWD WHERE FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRONGEST 0-1KM SHEAR VCNTY LEE TROUGH/WEAK SFC LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We are getting hit and miss sun here. Should be sufficient to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 All the indicators I am looking at would put the best chances of severe weather over NEPA, C and N NJ, and SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yes but tonight there should be a pretty large squall line that moves through and affects everybody. All the indicators I am looking at would put the best chances of severe weather over NEPA, C and N NJ, and SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Good amount of sunshine up here now. Should be interesting today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Showers and storms are developing already http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.248&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.248¢erx=456¢ery=615&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pretty strong storm popped up just west of NYC. Can hear the thunder from Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Real shame I've been sunny the whole day here and it probably still won't be enough to get a nice storm where I am.....seabreeze blowsss haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Real shame I've been sunny the whole day here and it probably still won't be enough to get a nice storm where I am.....seabreeze blowsss haha Where exactly are you located on LI? I think theres a goo chance of strong strongs for LI tonight. They may be below severe, which is not certain, as I think the coastal boundaries could help to enhance things, but there could be activity all the way out east tonight with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Whoa 15 mins ago nothing now hearing thunder like crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2030.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VA...THE DELMARVA...SRN AND ERN PA...NJ...INTO THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211554Z - 211800Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE OR MORE WATCHES DURING THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN BROAD POCKETS...COMPLICATING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT DOES APPEAR ONE AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE/WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD SUPPORT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS DIMINISHING...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG TOWARD THE 18-20Z. THEREAFTER...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE THREAT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...OR REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..KERR.. 08/21/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Strong sun out in Brooklyn, has been sunny all day pretty much. Some storms starting to pop up http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Where exactly are you located on LI? I think theres a goo chance of strong strongs for LI tonight. They may be below severe, which is not certain, as I think the coastal boundaries could help to enhance things, but there could be activity all the way out east tonight with the front. I live in southwest suffolk county near the south shore. the front really prolly is my only hope as the single cell storms I usually miss anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 frequent thunder here and new warning just issued for MBY for quarter sized hail. I will report when the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 about 3/4 of inch of rain in central westchester...in about 15 minutes, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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