CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 looks like no TOR watch for wizzy based on that MCD. I really am not sure what to make of the svr threat today. There's definitely been more sun than I expected... even from 10z this morning. Instability and shear look good but I'm still pretty hesitant to pull the trigger on a big event given some of the negatives still floating around. Looka like that lead s/w is firing off a few storms right near in the Hudson Valley. I even have a few shwrs popping sw of BOS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What are you concerned about the most as far as negatives go? The models showed us mixing down drier air as the boundary layer grows this morning and cutting off instability fairly dramatically. So I'm not sure how that will play off. Also the convection is firing pretty early to our west... so between clouds and poorly timed convection... not sure what to expect for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What are you concerned about the most as far as negatives go? That we live in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The models showed us mixing down drier air as the boundary layer grows this morning and cutting off instability fairly dramatically. So I'm not sure how that will play off. Also the convection is firing pretty early to our west... so between clouds and poorly timed convection... not sure what to expect for later on. Hopefully with the southwesterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere and with the LLJ potentially increasing later on this will help to continue pumping in moisture into the lower levels making in more difficult for that drier air to mix down. Convection firing early is definitely a huge concern. With virtually no capping in place and moderate instability any weak s/w will fire something up...hopefully this doesn't kill lapse rates any and doesn't become an issue. Agree though, tough call on today on what to really expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That we live in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 OKX doing a special 18z balloon sounding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 How did you get that to post w/o it being all cluttered? Just copied and pasted off the meso disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Just copied and pasted off the meso disc. That's what I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's what I did That's strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's strange. It always happens to me like that. Didn't happen on eastern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 OKX doing a special 18z balloon sounding! Yuppers. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --PLEASE NOTE THAT WE WILL BE TAKING A SPECIAL 18Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS. FORECAST STILL BASICALLY ON TRACK. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED WITH SBCAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG AS PER LAPS ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVING INTO WIDESPREAD TSTMS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS APPROACH US. PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE OUTBREAK. 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BRN...RESULTING IN A TENDENCY TOWARDS MULTICELLULAR. SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIMITED...HOWEVER AS STORMS DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW...EXPECT THIS SHEAR TO BE ENHANCED RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN/T A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA WITH THIS EVENT...EHI STILL IN THE 1-2 RANGE SUPPORTING A TOR POTENTIAL. INFLOW MAY ENHANCE THESE NUMBERS AS WELL BUT COMPUTATION IS BASED ON SRH SO CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS IN THE BRN. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ELEVATE THE SPIN UP RISK...AND AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES TONIGHT THE RISK COULD SHIFT TO LI WITH COASTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. PW/S STILL ON TRACK TO REACH JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FCST. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 No change in placement of anything from the 13z update./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's always extremely difficult pinpointing down convection to a specific location or small area but NW MA is in the threat area for severe storms; the numbers are about as good there as anywhere else as far as instability/shear is concerned. 12z NAM coming in and actually it doesn't look all too bad...although it is on the weak side with the ML lapse rates it definitely isn't showing any issues with instability or shear. Actually it developes the strongest helicity values right in western/central MA and CT...east of where the SPC has the 5% TOR risk. Thanks, Paul. I know the 'hits' can't be really forecasted, but it's nice to know that I'm not beyond the scope of the good parameters. 75.1/71. humid, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thanks, Paul. I know the 'hits' can't be really forecasted, but it's nice to know that I'm not beyond the scope of the good parameters. 75.1/71. humid, eh? Storms firing just to the west/northwest of CT moving SW to NE so maybe something near you soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Storms firing just to the west/northwest of CT moving SW to NE so maybe something near you soon. Wow--just took my first look at radar in the last couple of hours. Really lighting up. 76.0/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Those storms just went severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Raining here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I wonder if we see a watch very shortly. Perhaps by 1:00 PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I best get my lawn done sooner rather than later Alas no pool probably today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 These south winds are really gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nice morning on the beach, plenty of sun, however the anvil just got here, high cirrus deck, with a very very weak shower to my west. Looks like we are toast here now, just hoping for some rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I best get my manscaping done sooner rather than later Alas no pocket pool probably today There's nothing like playing on a smooth surface. It appears Pete's skins game is in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I wonder if we see a watch very shortly. Perhaps by 1:00 PM? not a TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 not a TOR Nope, wording suggestive of a SVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 WAtch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 TSTM to my northeast now. Developed right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 i dont know why ther isnt a watch for here those storms to the west are looking better and better by the minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 such a tropical looking sky out here again today. LCLs are ridiculously low. it's like watching a strat. cu deck bust through vertically...so funky. huge fat towers that look like a fog deck. with deep blue sky mixed in. and they are so moisture rich each cloud can drop a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 such a tropical looking sky out here again today. LCLs are ridiculously low. it's like watching a strat. cu deck bust through vertically...so funky. huge fat towers that look like a fog deck. with deep blue sky mixed in. and they are so moisture rich each cloud can drop a shower. LCL heights are around 750-850 meters!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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