Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 12:46 PM, CT Rain said: I think the northward relocation was worst case scenario for the weenies. The poor thing might run the length of Hispaniola! maybe it stays north! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 12:53 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: maybe it stays north! LOL. lol maybe it gets absorbed by the trough and threatens SNE!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 12z PIT and IAD soundings don't look to bad. It's not an EML, but a couple of steep layers in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 12:39 PM, CT Rain said: Surprisingly the severe threat looks to extend through almost 6z on south coast. Little inversion, very low LCLs, and nicely curved hodographs and surface based instability. Very unusual around here and can only happen a month or two out of the year (with warm SSTs). This is really intriguing to me as well. While nocturnal severe is rare around these parts we are in the time of year where that potential is more likely. However, the setup we have doesn't really scream nocturnal severe to me. Usually our nocturnal threats have an EML or were in a very hot and extremely humid wx pattern or we have very cold temps at 500mb...like -15C or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: The 12z PIT and IAD soundings don't look to bad. It's not an EML, but a couple of steep layers in there. Things look decent until you look at the vis sat loop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:07 PM, CT Rain said: Things look decent until you look at the vis sat loop lol Suns out guns out after my morning tstm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:07 PM, CT Rain said: Things look decent until you look at the vis sat loop lol There is actually some buildups here. I just happened to look out, and some decent CU. There is a weak S/W moving through later on this morning and aftn. I'm just noting those soundings. Would seem to favor things in the daytime for se PA up through NY state like every thinks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 12:31 PM, dendrite said: Anyone ever use the CIPS warm season site? Here's the sum of the reports from the top 15 analogs for 00z tonight. This is awesome! What's the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 12:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Of course what does it mean? Who knows...but just noting some decent dynamics there. like you mentioned yesterday i think, one thing that's always good to see is actual widespread QPF generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:10 PM, weatherwiz said: This is awesome! What's the link? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:10 PM, CoastalWx said: There is actually some buildups here. I just happened to look out, and some decent CU. There is a weak S/W moving through later on this morning and aftn. I'm just noting those soundings. Would seem to favor things in the daytime for se PA up through NY state like every thinks anyways. lol no I know... just giving you a hard time. I was sort of impressed looking at some of the lapse rates on the 12z and forecast soundings. The threat is really convoluted today. I's like to see some more sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:12 PM, dendrite said: http://www.eas.slu.e...WARM/analog.php Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:11 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: like you mentioned yesterday i think, one thing that's always good to see is actual widespread QPF generation. NAM goes bonkers..lol, but look at the LLJ from it. Feed back it seems, but it may have the right idea on line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:15 PM, CT Rain said: lol no I know... just giving you a hard time. I was sort of impressed looking at some of the lapse rates on the 12z and forecast soundings. The threat is really convoluted today. I's like to see some more sun. You guys better hope for something prefrontal... looking at the rad/sat is kinda ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:16 PM, CoastalWx said: NAM goes bonkers..lol, but look at the LLJ from it. Feed back it seems, but it may have the right idea on line of storms. Scott, 11:30 tee time, I need about 4hrs for our foursome to play the 18 holes. Still look ok or will we be killed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:20 PM, ski MRG said: Scott, 11:30 tee time, I need about 4hrs for our foursome to play the 18 holes. Still look ok or will we be killed? I'm a little worried some storms make it in there before mid aftn. Could be some cells that try to make it into the Berks after 2pm, but not a solid line or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 9z SPC SREF keeps slight tornado potential through 3z across western sections of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm a little worried some storms make it in there before mid aftn. Could be some cells that try to make it into the Berks after 2pm, but not a solid line or anything. I'm not concerned--I'm expecting just a a shower with a few rumbles. Keep expectations low. 67.0/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 1:55 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm not concerned--I'm expecting just a a shower with a few rumbles. Keep expectations low. 67.0/60 Well you don't want a renegade cell to strike..lol. As Bill Murray said, "I don't think the heavy stuff will come down for quite awhile.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like all systems go for a decent outbreak in SNE today. Sun is out in most areas..and those storms out in NY State should die out..Looks like hours of destabilizing..dews up into the low 70's. I would think after 4:00 all hell should break loose in some spots. It was pea soup fog from ORH down to TOL on 84 on the way home..and then the sun broke out about 10 mins ago as we pulled in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I sort of like the idea of stuff perhaps weakening a bit after 00z as it heads east, and then redeveloping overnight after 6z or so. An idea I'm tossing around, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 2:28 PM, CoastalWx said: I sort of like the idea of stuff perhaps weakening a bit after 00z as it heads east, and then redeveloping overnight after 6z or so. An idea I'm tossing around, anyways. Nah..no weakening..just damaging storms from 3:00 straight thru till 3:-4:oo am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Soundings down my way are best pretty late tonight...after midnight into predawn hrs really. Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Already have 1500-2000 J/KG of SBCape across parts of the region with 1000 J/KG of MLcape, 1500-2000 J/KG of MUcape and LI values down to -4C to -5C...already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 2:30 PM, CT Blizz said: Nah..no weakening..just damaging storms from 3:00 straight thru till 3:-4:oo am You're right, probably non-stop EF3s the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm going going to get a nocturnal storm, have it come right at 9:30 as I climb into bed. It's better than being awakened by it lest I just roll over and go back to sleep. Fully sun albeit a light haze. 69.8/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 2:31 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: Soundings down my way are best pretty late tonight...after midnight into predawn hrs really. Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk The NAM (although perhaps conv tainted) has one hell of a LLJ. That might help fire the stuff up after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 sfc winds mainly south across the region as well. You can see the stronger winds with the LLJ just back to our SW, right around 20-25 knots right now which is pretty decent, this is slowly working towards our region as well. sfc winds are about 5-10 mph right now and may increase a bit more too, especially as the LLJ max works in. Once that occurs we should see helicity values crank a bit...0-1 around 100-150 off to our SW now and 0-3 around 100 m2s2. Once the MLJ max moves into the area as well 0-3km helicity should ramp up too. RUC hitting helicity values pretty hard later on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On 8/21/2011 at 2:46 PM, weatherwiz said: sfc winds mainly south across the region as well. You can see the stronger winds with the LLJ just back to our SW, right around 20-25 knots right now which is pretty decent, this is slowly working towards our region as well. sfc winds are about 5-10 mph right now and may increase a bit more too, especially as the LLJ max works in. Once that occurs we should see helicity values crank a bit...0-1 around 100-150 off to our SW now and 0-3 around 100 m2s2. Once the MLJ max moves into the area as well 0-3km helicity should ramp up too. RUC hitting helicity values pretty hard later on this afternoon. Paul--mby question. How are things shaping up for the NW corner of Mass? We've seen most activity in the SW corner so far this year. New forecast has upped the ante on pop to 70% today/90% tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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