IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 165 its right over the city, at 980mb, and possibly a low end cat 1 still at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 when all is said and done, close to a worse case scenario I would think, and 5-10" or rainfall widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS says buy candles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 alot of folks will have a 3 day weekend coming up if this verifies - and places like all the barier islands in NJ will be ghost towns - this type of scenario potential for bays to meet ocean - happened in 1962 on LBI - NJ http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS says buy candles Hey downstate brethren! LI and the bight of NY really need to keep ears perked with this, 2-4 days of increasing onshore wind, along with the waves that certainly will be generated when Irene is very likely to be much stronger off the coast of the Carolina's would create probably some of the worst coastal beach erosion/flooding in quite some time. Not to mention the coupious rains. And if this maintains a decent TC core...ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS says buy candles and sell and don't buy stock of companies selling property/flood/hurricane insurance - this has the potential of being a very costly storm ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hey downstate brethren! LI and the bight of NY really need to keep ears perked with this, 2-4 days of increasing onshore wind, along with the waves that certainly will be generated when Irene is very likely to be much stronger off the coast of the Carolina's would create probably some of the worst coastal beach erosion/flooding in quite some time. Not to mention the coupious rains. And if this maintains a decent TC core...ouch! and the astro high tides with the new moon on monday...highest tides of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I get your point that there could be 10" of rain in places but this run shows mostly 4 to 6" areawide when all is said and done, close to a worse case scenario I would think, and 5-10" or rainfall widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I like the idea of a sharper recurve given the mid level ridge and active pattern over the northern half of the CONUS. The system is going to have to go inland over the Carolinas to get near our area. If that occurs it stands very little chance of being a hurricane when it reaches this latitude. Even so, the 18z trop guidance went east and also likes the sharper recurve idea after about 33 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I like the idea of a sharper recurve given the mid level ridge and active pattern over the northern half of the CONUS. The system is going to have to go inland over the Carolinas to get near our area. If that occurs it stands very little chance of being a hurricane when it reaches this latitude. Even so, the 18z trop guidance went east and also likes the sharper recurve idea after about 33 N. The BAM models are pretty worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The BAM models are pretty worthless. Those were just something to draw an idea upon. The main idea of my post didn't involve that graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I like the idea of a sharper recurve given the mid level ridge and active pattern over the northern half of the CONUS. The system is going to have to go inland over the Carolinas to get near our area. If that occurs it stands very little chance of being a hurricane when it reaches this latitude. Even so, the 18z trop guidance went east and also likes the sharper recurve idea after about 33 N. so your discounting the 00z and 12z EC, and the 00z, 06z and 18z GFS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I get your point that there could be 10" of rain in places but this run shows mostly 4 to 6" areawide thats not what this graphic shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Those were just something to draw an idea upon. The main idea of my post didn't involve that graphic. So you think it it don't pass over us? Wouldn't that be worse for the city long island and jersey being closer to ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 165 its right over the city, at 980mb, and possibly a low end cat 1 still at this point. Regardless I think this may be the biggest wind event around here since the march 13 noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not if it goes that far east...impacts here would be minimal So you think it it don't pass over us? Wouldn't that be worse for the city long island and jersey being closer to ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 so your discounting the 00z and 12z EC, and the 00z, 06z and 18z GFS runs? No, I am saying that the synoptic set up favors a sharper recurve. Also, we are 168 hours from the event. I really hope you aren't taken these solutions too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Bottom line, the 18z GFS trended towards less involement from the trough, without that, there really isn't much to pull the TC northeastward. If this misses the trough, it will stall out off the Carolinas and massive HP will build into SE Canada sealing our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, I am saying that the synoptic set up favors a sharper recurve. Also, we are 168 hours from the event. I really hope you aren't taken these solutions too seriously. Nobody should take any solution verbatim this far out, but I would much rather have the GFS and ECMWF on my side than the NOGAPS and BAM models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Those were just something to draw an idea upon. The main idea of my post didn't involve that graphic. I still have some concern for coastal flooding, we don't need a direct hit to have a pretty high impact given the slowing down of the storm and the astro high tides. We could have multiple cycles of tidal piling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, I am saying that the synoptic set up favors a sharper recurve. Also, we are 168 hours from the event. I really hope you aren't taken these solutions too seriously. I'm not taking any particular model or run verbatim, but its clear now that the trough interaction means everything, we miss it and checkmate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, I am saying that the synoptic set up favors a sharper recurve. Also, we are 168 hours from the event. I really hope you aren't taken these solutions too seriously. So what are you're thoughts as far as impacts around here? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 another possible track... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/DAVID/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Any solution is on the table but what earthlight is saying is that he believes the trough will be a player and a sharper recurve is in store. That's probably the most likely solution at this point. Hurricane forecasting in this range, is unstable. Wednesday night into Thursday is when we can start taking this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, I am saying that the synoptic set up favors a sharper recurve. Also, we are 168 hours from the event. I really hope you aren't taken these solutions too seriously. I had said something similar earlier today. The setup looks like one where the system either goes into NC/SC or recurves pretty hard and maybe hits far eastern LI but that might even be too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I still have some concern for coastal flooding, we don't need a direct hit to have a pretty high impact given the slowing down of the storm and the astro high tides. We could have multiple cycles of tidal piling. Weird. You told us yesterday to expect hispanola to kill this, as "all indications" pointed to the destruction of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Any solution is on the table but what earthlight is saying is that he believes the trough will be a player and a sharper recurve is in store. That's probably the most likely solution at this point. Hurricane forecasting in this range, is unstable. Wednesday night into Thursday is when we can start taking this seriously. I don't know why a stronger trough is more likely though, after a trend that direction earlier the GFS has trended towards the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't know why a stronger trough is more likely though, after a trend that direction earlier the GFS has trended towards the EC. 1 run doesnt equal a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I had said something similar earlier today. The setup looks like one where the system either goes into NC/SC or recurves pretty hard and maybe hits far eastern LI but that might even be too far west. Agree. It's also as much of a steering/mid level ridge issue as it is a active troughing pattern over the northern 1/3 of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Agree. It's also as much of a steering/mid level ridge issue as it is a active troughing pattern over the northern 1/3 of the conus. I'm a little mad at the models today for teasing us and requiring us to learn meterology and make some pattern favored adjustments, luckily it's still 6 days out and it will probably come to it's senses within 100hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.